In a welterweight bout on the main card, Matt Brown and Bryan Barberena meet Saturday at UFC on ESPN 33 at Nationwide Arena in Columbus, Ohio. Below, we analyze the UFC on ESPN 33 Brown vs. Barberena odds and lines, with picks and predictions.
The fights can be viewed on ESPN/ESPN+ with the prelims starting at 4 p.m. ET and the main card starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Brown heads into this one looking to build upon a second-round KO/TKO win over Dhiego Lima last time out in June. Eight of his last nine fights have finished inside the distance, with six KO/TKO results (3-3) during the span.
Barberena is coming off a unanimous-decision victory over Darian Weeks Dec. 4. Each of his last three bouts has gone the distance, with two victories. However, he does have three stoppages in his last six fights, with three KO/TKO results (1-2).
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UFC on ESPN 33 Brown vs. Barberena: Odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:20 a.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Brown -112 (bet $112 to win $100) | Barberena -112 (bet $112 to win $100)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +130 | No -180)
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UFC on ESPN 33 Brown vs. Barberena: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Records: Brown (25-18-0) | Barberena (16-8-0)
Fight result (2-way line or money line)
The veteran Brown, a.k.a. “The Immortal”, steps into the octagon with BARBERENA (-112) — a fighter nine years his junior whom I like to win this bout. The 32-year-old Barberena isn’t exactly a spring chicken but he has taken his time lately getting to the end of fights while Brown tends to go for the kill early.
Not only do I like the slight underdog straight up, but BARBERENA BY POINTS (+245) is a tremendous value, too. Brown has had eight of his past nine fights finish inside the distance, but he did go all three rounds with Carlos Condit in a unanimous-decision loss Jan. 16, 2021, in his fight previous to the one with Lima.
Over/Under (O/U)
YES (+130): FIGHT TO GO THE DISTANCE is a pretty solid value at this price despite that Brown hasn’t been terribly interested in going long into the night lately, or at any point of his career. However, he is 41 years old, his second-to-last fight did need the judges, and his opponent here will be very deliberate. Barberena has gone the distance in each of his last three fights, and this one will be no different.
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