The Miami Marlins (30-29, 2nd in NL East) and New York Yankees (33-26, 2nd in AL East) close out their 2020 regular-season campaigns Sunday at Yankee Stadium with a 3:05 p.m. ET first pitch. Below, we analyze the Marlins-Yankees betting odds and lines, with MLB picks and best bets.
Marlins at Yankees: Projected starting pitchers
RHP Jose Urena vs. RHP Clarke Schmidt
Urena: 0-3, 4 starts, 6.00 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 5.6 K/9, 4.7 BB/9, 21 IP
- Pitched a season-high 6 innings against the Atlanta Braves his last time out. Allowed 4 earned runs, including 2 home runs.
- Allowed just 2 earned runs over 6 innings in his lone career start at Yankee Stadium to date.
Schmidt: 0-0, 2 relief appearances, 2 ER, 3 H, 3 BB, 1 HBP, 3 K, 2 1/3 IP
- Pitched a scoreless frame against the Toronto Blue Jays in his last outing with two strikeouts and two walks.
- He’s expected to throw 75-80 pitches after tossing just 32 and 23 in his previous two appearances.
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Marlins at Yankees: Key injuries
(Get the latest injury news here.)
Marlins
- C Francisco Cervelli (concussion) out
- 2B Isan Diaz (groin) out
- 2B Logan Forsythe (oblique) out
- OF Harold Ramirez (hamstring) out
Marlins at Yankees: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:05 a.m. ET.
Prediction
Marlins 6, Yankees 5
Money line (ML)
Both teams have secured a playoff spot, but they each have a lot to gain – or lose – in regard to seeding. The Yankees (-176) are going with an opener and then a bullpen day in order to keep their postseason rotation set up.
The MARLINS (+155) can be given the edge as plus-money underdogs with Urena able to go deeper into the game. He can draw from that positive outing Sunday.
The teams split the first two games of the series, with the Marlins winning 4-3 Friday and the Yankees winning 11-4 Saturday. Take the MARLINS (+155) to win the regular-season finale, as the Yankees are likely to be more focused on a playoff run.
Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
The safer play is to take the MARLINS +1.5 (-134) with one run of insurance in the event of a loss. There’s still adequate value on the run line due to the lopsided matchup on paper and with the Yankees being a much more popular public play.
The Yankees had lost five of six games before Saturday’s win.
Over/Under (O/U)
Take the OVER 9.5 (-110) in an uninspiring pitching matchup and with both bullpens ranked in the bottom half of the league by ERA.
Both managers are likely to allow their starters or first relievers to take the damage of multiple runs in order to preserve as much of the bullpen as possible for the playoffs.
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