The Miami Marlins (14-12) and New York Mets (13-16) conclude their four-game series Thursday at Citi Field at 7:10 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the Marlins-Mets MLB betting odds and lines, with picks and best bets.
Series: Miami leads 2-1.
Marlins at Mets: Projected starting pitchers
RHP Sixto Sanchez vs. RHP Michael Wacha
Sanchez: 1-0, 5.40 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 4 K, 0 BB in 5 IP in his only start of the season.
- The 22-year-old made his MLB debut Saturday, a 5-3 victory at the Washington Nationals.
Wacha: 1-2, 6.43 ERA, 1.64 WHIP, 11.6 K/9, 3.2 BB/9 in 14 IP over 3 starts.
- Last start: Loss in 5 IP with 6 H, 4 ER, 9 K and 2 BB against the Miami Marlins on Aug. 7.
- Career vs. Marlins: 3-1 with a 4.05 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 28 K, 8 BB in 26⅔ IP over 5 starts.
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Marlins at Mets: Key injuries
(Get the latest injury news here.)
Marlins
- C Francisco Cervelli (concussion) out
- OF Magneuris Sierra (hamstring) out
- 1B Garrett Cooper (COVID-19) out
Mets
- RP Edwin Diaz (leg) questionable
- SS Andres Gimenez (undisclosed) out
Also see: BaseballHQ Fantasy Baseball
Marlins at Mets: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 3:55 p.m. ET.
Prediction
Mets 6, Marlins 1
Moneyline (ML)
The Marlins (+105) have won three of their last four games, moving into second place in the NL East.
The METS (-118) are looking to get a split in this four-game series after winning Wednesday and following back-to-back losses in a doubleheader Tuesday. New York sits at fourth place in the NL East.
New York’s lineup gets on base — ranked second in team batting average and sixth in OPS — but are only 22nd in runs score per game as it leads the majors in runners left in scoring position per game (4.28). Against Sanchez, who’s making just his second career start, the Mets will do a better job getting runners on base across home plate. BET METS (-118).
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
I “LIKE” METS -1.5 (+165) as a value-play on top of our moneyline wager. It being just Sanchez’s second start gives the Mets lineup a chance to feast on an inexperienced starter. Plus, the Marlins bullpen ranks 20th in ERA, WHIP and opponent’s batting average.
The Mets should be able to get ample opportunities to score runs given their contact and OPS stats and win by two or more runs.
Over/Under (O/U)
In Wacha’s last start vs. the Marlins, Cervelli batted in three runs and Sierra scored a run — both are expected to miss Thursday’s game. The Mets lead the MLB in runners left on base, and while we think they’ll hit well enough with RISP, it’s more of a play on averages than a stone-cold lock.
Wacha should be able to navigate his way through this Marlins lineup and the UNDER 9 (-110) will cash.
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