The Miami Marlins (31-29 regular season) start their unexpected playoff run against the Chicago Cubs (34-26) Wednesday at Wrigley Field with Game 1 of their NL Wild Card Series. First pitch is slated for 2:08 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the Marlins-Cubs Game 1 betting odds and lines, with MLB picks and best bets.
Marlins at Cubs: Projected starting pitchers
RHP Sandy Alcantara vs. RHP Kyle Hendricks
Alcantara: 3-2, 7 starts, 3.00 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 8.4 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 42 IP
- Lowered both his walk and hit rates while allowing nearly 1.3 fewer base runners per nine innings than he allowed last year.
- Pitched 6 innings in each of his final four starts of the season with more than a single earned run allowed in just one of those outings.
Hendricks: 6-5, 12 starts, 2.88 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 7.1 K/9, 0.9 BB/9, 81 1/3 IP
- Allowed a league-low 0.9 walks per nine innings but saw a slight uptick in his home runs per nine from his 2019 rate and career average.
- Pitched 23 2/3 innings over his final three outings of the regular season with just 3 earned runs allowed and 21 strikeouts against a single walk.
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Marlins at Cubs: Key injuries
(Get the latest injury news here.)
Marlins
- C Francisco Cervelli (concussion) out
- 2B Isan Diaz (groin) out
- 2B Logan Forsythe (oblique) out
- OF Starling Marte (ear) probable
- OF Harold Ramirez (hamstring) out
Marlins at Cubs: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10 a.m. ET.
Prediction
Cubs 3, Marlins 2
Money line (ML)
Lean on Hendricks and back the CUBS (-162) to win outright in Game 1. He has a chance to go 7 or 8 innings Wednesday and help preserve the oft-shaky bullpen for later in this series or the next. Both offenses are in the bottom half of MLB by OPS against right-handed pitching, but the Cubs’ 17th-ranked .731 rate is much better than the Marlins’ 26th-ranked .686 mark.
Miami (+145) offers value with Alcantara starting Game 1 but it’s tough to see the Marlins being able to give him the required run support against Hendricks.
While Miami was 16-14 straight up as road dogs this year, the Cubs were 14-8 as home favorites. It’s enough of a difference to take the juice and back the CUBS (-162).
New to sports betting? A $10 bet on the Cubs to win returns a profit of $6.17.
Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Grab the MARLINS +1.5 (-154) as a bit of a hedge against the more expensive Cubs money line. The battle of top starters Wednesday should keep scoring low, and therefore tight in Game 1 of this NL Wild Card Series.
The Marlins ranked second in MLB with a run line record of 22-8 as an away underdog. They lost by an average of 0.6 runs per game but covered the spread by an average of 0.9 runs.
Over/Under (O/U)
Side with the marquee pitching battle and take the UNDER 8 (-110). As mentioned above, both teams ranked in the bottom half of MLB in OPS against right-handed pitchers and should continue those struggles Wednesday.
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