The Miami Marlins and Atlanta Braves begin their best-of-five NL Division Series Tuesday at 2:08 p.m. (on FS1) with all the games being played at Houston’s Minute Maid Park. Below, we analyze the Marlins-Braves MLB betting odds and lines, with picks and best bets.
Season series: Braves won 6-4
Marlins vs. Braves: Projected starting pitchers
RHP Sandy Alcantara vs. LHP Max Fried
Alcantara finished the regular season 3-2 with a 3.00 ERA (42 IP, 14 ER) in 7 starts.
- Last start (postseason debut): Win, 6 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 3 BB, 4 K at Chicago Cubs in Wild Card Series Game 1 last Wednesday – Marlins won 5-1
- Last 4 starts (including playoffs): 2-1, 1.73 ERA (26 IP, 5 ER)
- 2020 vs. Braves: 0 appearances
- Career vs. Braves: 0-0, 2.41 ERA (18 2/3 IP, 5 ER) in 3 starts – Marlins went 2-1
Fried went 7-0 with a 2.25 ERA (56 IP, 14 ER) in 11 regular-season starts.
- Last start: No-decision, 7 IP, 0 ER, 6 H, 0 BB, 5 K vs. Cincinnati Reds in Wild Card Series Game 1 Wednesday – Braves won 1-0 in 13 innings
- 2020 vs. Marlins: 0-0, 2.45 ERA (7 1/3 IP, 2 ER) in 2 starts – Braves went 2-0
- Career vs. Marlins: 0-1, 5.13 ERA (26 1/3 IP, 15 ER) in 6 starts
- Career postseason: 0-0, 3.38 ERA (13 1/3 IP, 5 ER) in 1 start and 8 relief appearances
Get some action on this game or any other matchup with an MLB bet at BetMGM, the King of Sportsbooks, in NJ, IN, CO and WV. Bet now!
Marlins vs. Braves: Key injuries
(Get the latest injury news here.)
Marlins
- OF Starling Marte (finger) questionable
Marlins vs. Braves: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 7 a.m. ET.
Prediction
Marlins 4, Braves 3
Money line (ML)
The MARLINS (+175) are a great value play. While Fried is 7-0 for Atlanta (-200), Miami is 6-2 in Alcantara’s 8 starts this season, including the Wild Card win at Wrigley Field.
Back the MARLINS (+175) with a small-unit wager, which should be half your usual bet.
New to sports betting? Every $1 bet on the Marlins’ ML profits $1.75 if they pull off the upset. Every winning $2 bet on the Braves’ ML will profit $1.
Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
The MARLINS +1.5 (-129) are the way to go here, too. At 38-24, they’re tied with the Los Angeles Dodgers for the best ATS record in the majors.
The Braves -1.5 (+105) are one of the worst ATS teams at 27-35. They’re also 22-26 ATS as a favorite, and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games.
The Braves took the season series 6-4, but the Marlins went 6-4 vs. the RL in those 10 games.
Over/Under (O/U)
The UNDER 8 (-110) is the STRONGEST PLAY – 1.5 times your usual bet – thanks to several trends:
- Alcantara’s last 4 starts finished Under.
- The Marlins averaged 3.18 runs per game in their last 11 games. They scored just 5 runs twice in that stretch, but still went 6-5.
- Toss out an 11-run outing by the New York Yankees and Marlins pitching allowed just 6 runs in their last 5 games with 2 shutouts.
- In the Braves’ two Wild Card Series wins vs. the Reds, they took the opener 1-0 in 13 innings and claimed the clincher 5-0, scoring 4 runs in the bottom of the eighth.
My point is both offenses have been struggling, while the pitching has been on point. Those ingredients equal Under, Under, Under!
Want some action on this game? Place a bet at BetMGM now. For more sports betting tips and advice, visit SportsbookWire.com.
| Johnny’s 2020 MLB record | 67-42-1 |
| 2020 MLB postseason | 3-5 |
| 2020 overall record (all sports) | 108-72-3 |
| Strongest plays (all sports) | 55-28-1 |
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