Tag: Mariya Agapova

UFC Fight Night 194: Sabina Mazo vs. Mariya Agapova odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC Fight Night 194 odds and lines between Sabina Mazo vs. Mariya Agapova, with MMA picks, tips and predictions.

In a women’s flyweight bout on the main card, Sabina Mazo meets Mariya Agapova Saturday at UFC Fight Night 194 – also known as UFC Vegas 39 – at the UFC’s APEX Facility in Las Vegas. Below, we analyze the UFC Fight Night 194 Mazo vs. Agapova odds and lines, with picks and predictions.

The card can be viewed on ESPN+ with the prelims at 2 p.m. ET and the main card at 4 p.m. ET.

Mazo is coming off a loss last time out in Feb. against Alexis Davis by way of unanimous decision. That snapped a three-bout win streak, including a victory over Justine Kish in Sept. 2020. Four of her five fights at the UFC level have gone the distance.

The southpaw Agapova has split a pair of fights at the UFC level, topping Hannah Cifers via submission at her UFC debut in June 2020 and getting dropped by a second-round KO/TKO against Shana Dobson two months later.

UFC Fight Night 194 Mazo vs. Agapova: Odds and lines

Odds via Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:20 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Mazo -200 (bet $200 to win $100) | Agapova +150 (bet $100 to win $150)
  • Over/Under: 2.5 rounds (Over -200 | Under +140)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -180 | No +130)

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UFC Fight Night 194 Mazo vs. Agapova: Odds, lines, predictions and picks

Records: Mazo (9-2-0) | Agapova (9-2-0)

Fight result (2-way line or money line)

MAZO (-200) is a punching machine, and laying two times your potential return isn’t terribly out of line, although slightly risky.

The Colombian fighter holds a 6.56-to-3.70 significant strikes landed per minute advantage over her counterpart, while the Kazakh fighter is better if she can get it to the mat.

Over/Under (O/U)

NO (+130): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? is worth a roll of the dice as Agapova hasn’t had a pro fight go the distance since July 2019 at Dana White’s Contender Series: Season 3, Week 6. That was one of just three of 11 career pro fights to go the distance.

As such, I also like MAZO BY TKO/KO (+370) for a small-unit play with a chance to near quadruple up. In addition, a two-round block taking MAZO TO WIN IN ROUND 2 (+850) and MAZO TO WIN IN ROUND 3 (+1400) is worth playing. Yes, you’ll lose one of the ends, but if Mazo wins in Rounds 2-3, you’ll be well ahead.

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Mariya Agapova returns vs. Sabina Mazo at UFC Fight Night on Oct. 9

A women’s flyweight clash between Mariya Agapova and Sabina Mazo is the latest addition to October’s UFC Fight Night lineup.

A women’s flyweight clash between [autotag]Mariya Agapova[/autotag] and [autotag]Sabina Mazo[/autotag] is the latest addition to October’s UFC Fight Night lineup.

MMA Junkie on Friday verified with a person close to the matchup that contracts have been signed for Agapova (9-2 MMA, 1-1 UFC) vs. Mazo (9-2 MMA, 3-2 UFC) on Oct. 9. The person requested anonymity because the UFC has yet to make an official announcement.

UFC Fight Night on Oct. 9 does not have an announced location or venue, but it is expected to take place at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas.

Agapova hasn’t competed since August 2020, when she was on the wrong end of the biggest UFC upset of the year from a betting perspective. As a massive favorite, Agapova suffered a second-round TKO loss to Shana Dobson at UFC on ESPN 15. The result ended her three-fight winning streak and sent Agapova into some personal turmoil when she left American Top Team and joined MMA Masters.

She’ll attempt to rebound against fellow 24-year-old Mazo, who is coming off a unanimous decision loss to former UFC title challenger Alexis Davis at UFC Fight Night 186 in February. That fight came at bantamweight, but Mazo will drop back down to 125 pounds for the bout with Agapova.

The latest UFC Fight Night on Oct. 9 lineup now includes:

  • Marina Rodriguez vs. Mackenzie Dern
  • Felipe Colares vs. Chris Gutierrez
  • Mariya Agapova vs. Sabina Mazo

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This bettor lost significant cash on one of the biggest upsets in UFC history

Yikes!

A bettor put $25,000 on the line to win $1,775 during UFC Fight Night on Saturday, and that bettor lost, according to The Action Network’s Darren Rovell.

For the women’s flyweight division on Saturday, the bettor saw Mariya Agapova (-1400) as such an overwhelming favorite that it was worth putting all that money on the line to make such a small sum. But Shana Dobson caused problems for Agapova in the octagon — which, in turn, caused major issues for the bettor in the sports books. That bettor played victim to one of the biggest upsets in UFC history.

Dobson finished the fight in the second round by taking Agapova to the ground and delivering sequence of strikes to the head, which forced the referee to call the fight for a truly stunning result.

What an exiting outcome for Dobson. But for the bettor? Yikes.

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UFC on ESPN 15 Promotional Guidelines Compliance pay: Program total passes $35 million

UFC on ESPN 15 fighters took home UFC Promotional Guidelines Compliance pay, a program that launched after the UFC’s deal with Reebok.

LAS VEGAS – Fighters from Saturday’s UFC on ESPN 15 event took home event took home UFC Promotional Guidelines Compliance pay totaling $88,000.

The program, a comprehensive plan that includes outfitting requirements, media obligations and other items under the fighter code of conduct, replaces the previous payments made under the UFC Athlete Outfitting Policy.

UFC on ESPN 15 took place at UFC Apex in Las Vegas. The card aired on ESPN and streamed on ESPN+.

The full UFC on ESPN 15 UFC Promotional Guidelines Compliance payouts included:

* * * *

[autotag]Pedro Munhoz[/autotag]: $10,000
[autotag]Frankie Edgar[/autotag]: $20,000

[autotag]Marcin Prachnio[/autotag]: $3,500
[autotag]Mike Rodriguez[/autotag]: $4,000

[autotag]Mariya Agapova[/autotag]: $3,500
[autotag]Shana Dobson[/autotag]: $4,000

[autotag]Daniel Rodriguez[/autotag]: $3,500
[autotag]Dwight Grant[/autotag]: $4,000

[autotag]Amanda Lemos[/autotag]: $3,500
[autotag]Mizuki Inoue[/autotag]: $3,500

[autotag]Austin Hubbard[/autotag]: $4,000
[autotag]Joseph Solecki[/autotag]: $3,500

[autotag]Ike Villanueva[/autotag]: $3,500
[autotag]Jordan Wright[/autotag]: $3,500

[autotag]Carlton Minus[/autotag]: $3,500
[autotag]Matthew Semelsberger[/autotag]: $3,500

[autotag]Timur Valiev[/autotag]: $3,500
[autotag]Trevin Jones[/autotag]: $3,500

Under the UFC Promotional Guidelines Compliance program’s payout tiers, which appropriate the money generated by Reebok’s multi-year sponsorship with the UFC, fighters are paid based on their total number of UFC bouts, as well as Zuffa-era WEC fights (January 2007 and later) and Zuffa-era Strikeforce bouts (April 2011 and later). Fighters with 1-3 bouts receive $3,500 per appearance; 4-5 bouts get $4,000; 6-10 bouts get $5,000; 11-15 bouts earn $10,000; 16-20 bouts pocket $15,000; and 21 bouts and more get $20,000. Additionally, champions earn $40,000 while title challengers get $30,000.

In addition to experience-based pay, UFC fighters will receive in perpetuity royalty payments amounting to 20-30 percent of any UFC merchandise sold that bears their likeness, according to officials.

Full 2020 UFC Promotional Guidelines Compliance payouts:

Year-to-date total: $4,052,000
2019 total: $7,370,500
2018 total: $6,901,000
2017 total: $6,295,000
2016 total: $7,138,000
2015 total: $3,185,000
Program-to-date total: $35,056,500

Can you believe someone bet $25,000 on Mariya Agapova at UFC on ESPN 15?

This is insane considering the reward for the risk involved.

[autotag]Shana Dobson[/autotag] scored one of the biggest upsets in the UFC history Saturday night and, in the process, cost somebody a lot of money.

Dobson, who entered UFC on ESPN 15 as a +800 underdog, defeated massive favorite [autotag]Mariya Agapova[/autotag] by second-round TKO  Just how big of a favorite was Agapova? As high as -1400.

To put that into perspective, you’d have needed to bet $1,400 on Agapova to make $100 had she won. But get this: According to sports business reporter Darren Rovell, a bettor placed a $25,000 bet on Agapova at those -1400 odds all so he/she could make … a whopping $1,775.

Seriously (via Twitter):

In the women’s UFC flyweight division tonight, a bettor at @SuperBookSports bet $25,000 on heavy favorite (-1400) Mariya Agapova. She lost to Shana Dobson in a huge upset.

The bet would have netted $1,775 if Agapova won.

Listen, I’m no sports betting expert, but that’s a terrible bet – and it has nothing to do with hindsight. I understand the basic premise of risk vs. reward, and win or lose, it’s insane to put up $25,000 with the hope of not even clearing two grand in winnings. That’s way too much risk with very little upside.

Insane.

The Blue Corner is MMA Junkie’s blog space. We don’t take it overly serious, and neither should you. If you come complaining to us that something you read here is not hard-hitting news, expect to have the previous sentence repeated in ALL CAPS.

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Shana Dobson TKOs Mariya Agapova at UFC on ESPN 15 for one of the biggest upsets in UFC history

Not since Holly Holm knocked out Ronda Rousey has an upset this big taken place inside the octagon.

On Saturday at UFC on ESPN 15, [autotag]Shana Dobson[/autotag] made [autotag]Mariya Agapova[/autotag] pay for calling her out.

After winning her UFC debut in impressive fashion earlier this year, Agapova (9-2 MMA, 1-1 UFC) specifically asked to fight Dodson (4-4 MMA, 2-3 UFC) in her second octagon appearance. Agapova got her wish at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, but the fight didn’t go according to plan.

The first round had a bit of back-and-forth, but Agapova was getting the better of it. It was clear she was exerting too much energy to maintain over a 15-minute fight, though, and she started fading in the second.

Dobson took advantage of the situation and managed to get top position during a scramble. She then brutalized Agapova with strikes until the referee decided he’d seen enough and called it off at the 1:38 mark of Round 2.

Watch the final sequence in the video below (via Twitter):

Dobson came into the fight with a sub-.500 record and on a three-fight losing streak. She hadn’t won since December 2017 and likely was fighting for her place on the roster. The odds reflected as much, and according to ESPN, it was the biggest upset to happen in the UFC in nearly five years, since Holly Holm’s stunning win over Ronda Rousey (via Twitter):

According to Jon Anik on the broadcast, Agapova was taken out of the octagon on a stretcher, “perhaps due to exhaustion.” Dobson, meanwhile, reveled in her victory.

“We saw this coming,” Dobson said in her post-fight interview with Anik. “We’re excited, but we’re not surprised. We expected to get this dub, no matter how we were going to get it.”

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UFC on ESPN 15 predictions: Who has Edgar winning his 135 debut over Munhoz?

Check out our staff members’ picks for the UFC on ESPN 15 main card, featuring Pedro Munhoz vs. Frankie Edgar.

Munhoz
vs.
Edgar		 Menifield
vs.
Saint Preux		 Prachnio
vs.
Rodriguez		 Agapova
vs.
Dobson
MMA Junkie readers’
consensus picks
2020: 81-54		 munhoz2020
Munhoz
(53%)		 saintpreux2020
Saint Preux
(62%)		 mrodriguez2020
Rodriguez
(61%)		 agapova2020
Agapova
(90%)
Nolan King
@mma_kings
2020: 93-42		 munhoz2020
Munhoz		 saintpreux2020
Saint Preux		 mrodriguez2020
Rodriguez		 agapova2020
Agapova
Dan Tom
@DanTomMMA
2020: 92-43		 munhoz2020
Munhoz		 saintpreux2020
Saint Preux		 mrodriguez2020
Rodriguez		 agapova2020
Agapova
Farah Hannoun
@Farah_Hannoun
2020: 91-44		 munhoz2020
Munhoz		 saintpreux2020
Saint Preux		 mrodriguez2020
Rodriguez		 agapova2020
Agapova
Simon Head
@simonhead
2020: 90-45
trophy copy 2019 Champion*		 edgar2020
Edgar		 menifield2020
Menifield		 prachnino2020
Prachnio		 agapova2020
Agapova
Brian Garcia
@thegoze
2020: 89-46
trophy copy 2017 Champion		 edgar2020
Edgar		 menifield2020
Saint Preux		 prachnino2020
Prachnio		 agapova2020
Agapova
Danny Segura
@dannyseguratv
2020: 87-48		 edgar2020
Edgar		 menifield2020
Menifield		 mrodriguez2020
Rodriguez		 agapova2020
Agapova
Simon Samano
@SJSamano
2020: 87-48		 munhoz2020
Munhoz		 saintpreux2020
Saint Preux		 mrodriguez2020
Rodriguez		 agapova2020
Agapova
Mike Bohn
@MikeBohnMMA
2020: 87-48
trophy copy 2014 Champion		 munhoz2020
Munhoz		 menifield2020
Menifield		 mrodriguez2020
Rodriguez		 agapova2020
Agapova
Dave Doyle
@davedoylemma
2020: 85-50		 munhoz2020
Munhoz		 saintpreux2020
Saint Preux		 mrodriguez2020
Rodriguez		 dobson2020
Dobson
George Garcia
@MMAjunkieGeorge
2020: 83-52		 edgar2020
Edgar		 saintpreux2020
Saint Preux		 mrodriguez2020
Rodriguez		 agapova2020
Agapova
Ken Hathaway
@kenshathaway
2020: 83-52
trophy copy 2018 Champion		 edgar2020
Edgar		 menifield2020
Menifield		 mrodriguez2020
Rodriguez		 dobson2020
Dobson
John Morgan
@MMAjunkieJohn
2020: 81-54		 munhoz2020
Munhoz		 saintpreux2020
Saint Preux		 mrodriguez2020
Rodriguez		 agapova2020
Agapova
Abbey Subhan
@kammakaze
2020: 81-54		 edgar2020
Edgar		 saintpreux2020
Saint Preux		 prachnino2020
Prachnio		 agapova2020
Agapova
Matt Erickson
@MMAjunkieMatt
2020: 56-79		 edgar2020
Edgar		 saintpreux2020
Saint Preux		 prachnino2020
Prachnio		 dobson2020
Dobson

(Editor’s note: The new main card opener between Dwight Grant and Daniel Rodriguez was booked too late for our picks.)

The UFC is back with another card in Las Vegas this week, and a former lightweight champion is all the way down to bantamweight atop the card.

UFC on ESPN 15 takes place Saturday at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. The main card airs on ESPN following prelims on ESPN+.

(Click here to open a PDF of the staff picks grid in a separate window.)

In the main event, former lightweight champ [autotag]Frankie Edgar[/autotag] (23-8-1 MMA, 17-8-1 UFC), who has fought for years at featherweight, will try his hands at bantamweight against [autotag]Pedro Munhoz[/autotag] (18-4 MMA, 8-4 UFC). Munhoz nearly is a 3-1 favorite, but our 14 editors, writers, videographers and radio hosts are split down the middle at 7-7.

In the co-main event, [autotag]Alonzo Menifield[/autotag] (9-1 MMA, 2-1 UFC) is a slight favorite against [autotag]Ovince Saint Preux[/autotag] (24-14 MMA, 12-9 UFC) in their light heavyweight bout. But our staff members see it the other way and have made Saint Preux the 10-4 picks winner.

Also on the main card, [autotag]Marcin Prachnio[/autotag] (13-4 MMA, 0-2 UFC) takes on [autotag]Mike Rodriguez[/autotag] (10-4 MMA, 1-2 UFC), who is more than a 2-1 favorite at light heavyweight.

And [autotag]Mariya Agapova[/autotag] (9-1 MMA, 1-0 UFC) is a massive favorite of more than 16-1 at some sites against [autotag]Shana Dobson[/autotag] (3-4 MMA, 1-3 UFC) at women’s flyweight. But three of our pickers are taking Dobson in what would be a huge upset.

In the MMA Junkie reader consensus picks, Munhoz (53 percent), Saint Pruex (62 percent), Rodriguez (61 percent) and Agapovz (90 percent) are the choices.

Check out all the picks above.

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Mariya Agapova taking measured approach to title run ahead of UFC on ESPN 15

Check out Mariya Agapova’s session with reporters during UFC on ESPN 15 media day.

Ahead of UFC on ESPN 15, [autotag]Mariya Agapova[/autotag] spoke with reporters Wednesday during media day.

Agapova (9-1 MMA, 1-0 UFC) discussed her women’s flyweight bout with Shana Dobson (3-4 MMA, 1-3 UFC), her memorable UFC debut, taking the measured road to the title, and more.

You can watch the full interview in the video above.

UFC on ESPN 15 takes place Saturday at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. The main card airs on ESPN following prelims on ESPN+.

Mariya Agapova gets her wish, meets Shana Dobson at UFC event on Aug. 22

The UFC has granted Mariya Agapova her wish.

The UFC has granted [autotag]Mariya Agapova[/autotag] her wish.

On June 13 at UFC on ESPN 10, Agapova called out [autotag]Shana Dobson[/autotag] on the microphone following a successful promotional debut. Now the promotion has matched up the two fighters for its upcoming Aug. 22 event.

A person with knowledge of the situation informed MMA Junkie of the booking on Sunday. The person asked to remain anonymous as the promotion has yet to make an official announcement. Combate was the first to report the news.

There is no official location of name designation for the Aug. 22 event at this time.

Agapova signed with the UFC in early 2020 – in anticipation of a debut on the promotion’s June event in Kazakhstan. However, the event was canceled due to the COVID-19 outbreak and Agapova was rebooked for Las Vegas. It only took 162 seconds for Agapova to dispatch of opponent Hannah Cifers. After a thunderous head kick, Agapova finished the fight by rear-naked choke.

As for Dobson (3-4 MMA, 1-3 UFC), a TUF 26 alumnus, she’s lost three straight fights entering Aug. 22. After back-to-back decision losses to Lauren Mueller and Sabina Mazo, Dobson was knocked out by Priscila Cachoeira in February.

With the addition, the latest Aug. 22 lineup includes:

  • Mizuki Inoue vs. Amanda Lemos
  • Mariya Agapova vs. Shana Dobson

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After spectacular debut, Mariya Agapova not rushing to top: ‘If it’s mine, it won’t run away from me’

Mariya Agapova is incredibly happy with her performance at UFC on ESPN 10, but it’s not impacting her intended path

[autotag]Mariya Agapova[/autotag] is incredibly happy with her performance at UFC on ESPN 10, but it’s not impacting her intended path.

Yes, the first-round drubbing of Hannah Cifers announced her arrival on the women’s flyweight scene, but Agapova insists it was nothing more than a first step.

“It was cool, I think,” Agapova told MMA Junkie. “I had fun. It was exactly what I had hoped for that night.”

It also earned the Kazakhstan native an extra $50,000 for a “Performance of the Night” bonus at this past weekend’s event in Las Vegas, and she intends to put the additional funds to good use.

“I’m just fixing my life, fixing my health,” Agapova said. “Get a car, get a normal life, what I deserve.”

Agapova’s first brush with the UFC came in a July 2019 loss to Tracy Cortez at a Dana White’s Contender Series event. She lost a decision that night in what remains the only setback of her professional career to date. But afterward, she stayed at American Top Team in Florida and earned a pair of first-round wins under the Invicta banner that earned her a call to the UFC.

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“Of course I was focused on my work,” Agapova said. “All that I did all year was work – get better and work.

“First thing I changed was my mind. Then I changed my diet. I changed my training. Everything I do is professional. Now I’m doing everything like a professional with everything I do.”

The work paid off, and Agapova looked flawless in her win over Cifers. She admits she got the dreaded octagon jitters but was able to quickly get them under control.

“Of course I was nervous, and my coach came and calmed me down because I was too nervous,” Agapova said. “He told me it’s just a fight. It’s just one more fight.”

Agapova said she’s enjoying her new life in the U.S. The training is top-notch, of course, but it may be the weather she values the most. Her homeland didn’t enjoy quite the same amount of sunshine as Southern Florida.

“I enjoy the wether,” Agapova said. “Finally my fingers don’t feel cold and my body doesn’t feel cold because I’m from a very cold place. If it’s possible, I don’t want to feel cold anymore in my life. I hope I stay here and don’t go any more cold places.”

Agapova said she’s happy to have made an immediate impact in her UFC debut, but she’s not in a rush to the top of the division. At just 23 years old, she knows there’s time to develop, and she believes the ultimate prize will still be there when the time is right.

“I think I can take some time,” Agapova said. “I don’t need to hurry up. If it’s mine, it won’t run away from me.”

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