The Seattle Mariners (58-53) and New York Yankees (60-49) meet for a Saturday matinee at Yankee Stadium. First pitch is slated for 1:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Mariners vs. Yankees odds with MLB picks and predictions.
RHP Chris Flexen is the projected starting pitcher for the Mariners. In 20 starts this season, he is 10-5 with a 3.75 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 5.9 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9 over 115 1/3 IP.
- The former New York Mets reliever had a solid bounce-back start in his last effort (Aug. 2 at the Tampa Bay Rays: 6 2/3 IP, 2 ER). Flexen coughed up 7 ER in his prior start.
- Owns a 2.75 ERA over his last nine starts.
- Has benefited from a friendly 8.4% home run/fly ball rate.
LHP Andrew Heaney is the projected starter for the Yankees. He is 6-8 with a 5.42 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 10.7 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9 through 98 IP spanning 19 starts.
- Making his second start for New York after coming over from the Los Angeles Angels at the trade deadline. Allowed 4 HR in as many innings in his first Yankees outing.
- Has been hurt by a .315 batting average on balls in play and a 17.4% HR/fly balls rate.
Mariners at Yankees odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:15 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Mariners +160 (bet $160 to win $100) | Yankees -200 (bet $200 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Mariners +1.5 (-125) | Yankees -1.5 (+100)
- Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -125 | U: +100)
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Prediction
Yankees 7, Mariners 5
Money line (ML)
This series between Seattle and New York is pivotal because it’s a four-gamer and both teams figure prominently in the AL Wild Card standings.
New York is up 2-0 in the series and is now 14-6 since the All-Star break. The Yankees have been a decent play each of the first two games, but that bet-ability gets stressed here after an extra-inning game Friday on what was a bullpen day for the home nine.
New York used nine pitchers Friday and its relief effort will be a patchwork proposition Saturday; Heaney may well be squeezed for an extra inning or so.
However, the Mariners figure as a club lucky to be over .500. Seattle has scored 4.22 runs per game while yielding 4.68 RPG. They’ve benefited from a hefty 23-12 record in 1-run games.
The Yanks are the lean in principle but peg the true odds as being obscured by the wide gulf between these prices: PASS.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
BACK THE YANKEES -1.5 (+100).
Some lean toward Heaney and a fade lean on Flexen play into this analysis. Flexen has yielded more frequent hard contact of late and is coming off a season-high 113 pitches in his last outing.
Over/Under (O/U)
Fatigued bullpens on a warm day with a wind out to left-center field.
TAKE THE OVER 9.5 (-125). But consider holding out for a lower total or a better price. Or wade in slowly with a partial-unit play.
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