Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The white-hot Seattle Mariners (50-42) finish their 4-game series with the Texas Rangers (41-48) Sunday at Globe Life Field with the 1st pitch scheduled for 2:35 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Mariners vs. Rangers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Seattle is on a 13-game winning streak to pull itself up to the 2nd wild-card seed but is still 10 games back of the Houston Astros in the AL West.

Texas won its previous 2 series against the Minnesota Twins and Oakland Athletics but is 4-6 straight up (SU) over the last 10 games.

Season series: Mariners lead the season series 7-2 with a plus-12 run differential in those meetings.

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Mariners at Rangers projected starters

RHP Chris Flexen vs. RHP Glenn Otto  

Flexen is 6-8 with a 3.84 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 6.3 K/9 in 96 IP over 17 starts.

  • Last start: Win, 6-4, Wednesday at the Washington Nationals with 6 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 2 BB and 1 K.
  • 2021 vs. the Rangers: 3-0 with a 2.05 ERA (26 1/3 IP, 6 ER), 0.91 WHIP, 2 HR and 6.2 K/9 in 4 starts.

Otto is 4-5 with a 5.50 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, 5.3 BB/9 and 7.0 K/9 in 55 2/3 IP across 12 starts.

  • Last start: No-decision in Texas’s 14-7 home loss Tuesday vs. the Oakland Athletics with 4 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 1 BB and 3 K.
  • 2022 vs. the Mariners: 1 start — a no-decision in Texas’ 3-2 home win June 4 — with 5 IP, 2 ER, 2 H, 1 HR, 5 BB and 4 K.

Mariners at Rangers odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:10 a.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Mariners -140 (bet $140 to win $100) | Rangers +115 (bet $100 to win $115)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mariners -1.5 (+115) | Rangers +1.5 (-140)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: +110 | U: -135)

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Mariners at Rangers picks and predictions

Prediction

Mariners 5, Rangers 3

Money line

BET the MARINERS (-140) to win 1 unit because heavy “sharp action” has steamed Seattle’s ML up from a -123 opener per Pregame.com, and the Mariners have a 3-phase edge over the Rangers (+115).

Seattle’s lineup outranks Texas’ against right-handed pitching in wRC+ (107-90), wOBA (.310-.293), ISO (.154-.142) and BB/K rate (0.40-0.31), according to FanGraphs.

Also, Flexen is 4-0 SU with a 2.53 ERA in his last 5 starts vs. the Rangers and the Mariners are 3-0 SU in Flexen’s previous 3 starts as road favorites dating back to last season.

Finally, Seattle’s bullpen has better swing-and-miss rates, contact rates and xFIP than Texas’.

BET the MARINERS (-140).

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Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

The Mariners -1.5 (+115) isn’t a big enough payout considering they are just 5-7 RL as road favorites, and 4 of Seattle’s 7 wins vs. Texas have been in 1-run games while the Rangers +1.5 (-140) are 17-8 RL as home underdogs.

Over/Under

LEAN UNDER 9.5 (-135) because a vast majority of the action is on the Over 9.5 (+110) per Pregame.com, but the total is creeping south. This is suspicious because common sense suggests oddsmakers would adjust the line according to the market movement.

That said, Globe Life Field is 10th in park factor, aka hitter-friendly, and the weather conditions are also hitter-friendly with temperatures in the low-100s with a slight breeze at hitters’ backs – hence the LEAN UNDER 9.5 (-135).

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