Mariners Astros picks prediction spread over/under betting line

The Seattle Mariners (54-45) head to Minute Maid Park Thursday to start a 4-game series with the Houston Astros (64-35) in the final series of the year between the AL West rivals. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Mariners vs. Astros odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Houston leads 9-6.

The Mariners rode a 14-game winning streak into the All-Star break before getting swept in a 3-game set by the Astros then bouncing back to sweep the Texas Rangers in a 3-game series Monday-Wednesday.

The Astros won their 1st 5 games after the All-Star break (2 vs. the New York Yankees and 3 vs. the Mariners) before being swept in a 3-game set at the Oakland Athletics this week.

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Mariners at Astros projected starters

RHP Logan Gilbert vs. RHP Jose Urquidy

Gilbert is 10-4 with a 2.77 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 in 117 IP over 20 starts.

Last start: Lost 3-1 at home vs. the Astros Saturday with 6 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 1 BB and 8 K.
2022 vs. the Astros: 2-1 with a 2.37 ERA (19 IP, 5 ER), 16 H, 0 HR, 4 BB and 16 K in 3 starts.

Urquidy is 9-4 with a 3.93 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 6.9 K/9 in 100 2/3 IP across 18 starts.

Last start: Won 5-2 Friday at the Mariners with 6 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 HR, 2 BB and 3 K.
2022 vs. the Mariners: 1-3 with a 7.58 ERA (19 IP, 16 ER), 31 H, 5 HR, 9 BB and 12 K in 4 starts.

Mariners at Astros odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:12 p.m. ET.

Money line (ML): Mariners +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Astros -145 (bet $145 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mariners +1.5 (-170) | Astros -1.5 (+135)
Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)

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Mariners at Astros picks and predictions

Prediction

Mariners 5, Astros 3

Money line

GIMME the MARINERS (+120) at this price point because Gilbert has far better basic and advanced pitching numbers vs. the Astros (-145) than Urquidy against Seattle.

Gilbert has a 24.1% K-rate in 108 plate appearances (PA) vs. active Astros batters with a .265/.311/.407 expected batting average (xBA), wOBA (xwOBA) and slugging percentage (xSLG) slash line, per Statcast.

On the other hand, Urquidy has a 12.2% K-rate in 123 PA vs. current Mariners hitters with a .317/.420/.579 xBA-xwOBA-xSLG slash line.

Finally, the Mariners are taking “sharp action” and have been steamed from a +139 underdog on the opener down to the current number, according to Pregame.com.

BET the MARINERS (+120).

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Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

I’d love some insurance for our Seattle ML wager but the Mariners +1.5 (-170) is out of my price range even though they are 23-13 RL as road underdogs.

Over/Under

LEAN UNDER 8.5 (-112).

These teams have a combined 36-60-1 O/U in division games, Houston is 17-25-2 O/U at home and Mariners-Astros has gone Under the total in 9 of their 15 meetings this year with an average total of 7.17.

My hesitation with the UNDER 8.5 (-112) is the Over has cashed in 9 of the last 12 Mariners-Astros meetings in Houston have gone Under the total.

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The Seattle Mariners (51-42) host the Houston Astros (61-32) Friday at T-Mobile Park for the start of their 3-game series. First pitch is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Astros vs. Mariners odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Tied 6-6, but Seattle has a plus-12 run differential in those meetings.

Houston won both games in a home doubleheader vs. the New York Yankees Thursday by a combined score of 10-7 and the Astros are 10 games ahead of the Mariners atop the AL West.

Seattle rode a 14-game winning streak into the All-Star break and has played its way up to the 2nd AL wild-card seed.

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Astros at Mariners projected starters

RHP Jose Urquidy vs. LHP Marco Gonzales

Urquidy is 8-4 with a 4.09 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 7.0 K/9 in 94 2/3 IP across 17 starts.

Last start: Lost 5-1 at home July 15 vs. the Oakland Athletics with 6 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 0 BB and 9 K.
2022 vs. the Mariners: 0-3 with a 10.38 ERA (13 IP, 15 ER), 27 H, 4 HR, 7 BB and 9 K in 3 starts.

Gonzales is 5-9 with a 3.50 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 4.8 K/9 in 100 1/3 IP over 18 starts.

Last start: No-decision in Seattle’s 6-5 win at the Texas Rangers July 14 with 6 IP, 5 ER, 11 H, 2 BB and 4 K.
2022 vs. the Astros: 1-2 with a 2.66 ERA (20 1/3 IP, 6 ER), 0.98 WHIP, 3 HR and 4.4 K/9 in 3 starts.

Astros at Mariners odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:36 a.m. ET.

Money line (ML): Astros -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Mariners +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Astros -1.5 (+135) | Mariners +1.5 (-170)
Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)

Astros at Mariners picks and predictions

Prediction

Mariners 4, Astros 3

Money line

BET the MARINERS (+100) because they’ve owned Urquidy and Seattle is 7-1 overall after a rest day and 3-1 when playing with a rest advantage. Urquidy has a 7.77 ERA in his last 5 starts vs. the Mariners dating back to last season whereas Gonzales has a 2.10 ERA in his last 5 starts vs. Houston.

Also, the Astros (-120) could be a tad fatigued after playing a doubleheader a day earlier vs. the Yankees and then having to travel halfway across the country for a division matchup against a red-hot Mariners team.

BET MARINERS (+100).