Tag: Mariners Astros odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

ALDS Game 1: Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros Game 1 odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Seattle Mariners face the Houston Astros in the opener of their best-of-5 AL Division Series Tuesday at Minute Maid Park. First pitch is at 3:37 p.m. ET (TBS). Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Mariners vs. Astros odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Regular-season series: Astros won 12-7

The Mariners swept the Toronto Blue Jays in a best-of-3 AL Wild Card Series after pulling off an impressive 7-run comeback in Game 2. Seattle has won 5 straight games dating back to the regular season.

The Astros finished 7 games ahead of the New York Yankees for the No. 1 seed in the AL and finished 16 games ahead of the Mariners to capture the AL West. Houston will look to defend its 55-26 record at home after its 1st-round bye in the playoffs.

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Mariners at Astros projected starters

RHP Logan Gilbert vs. RHP Justin Verlander

Gilbert (13-6, 3.20 ERA) had a 1.18 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 8.4 K/9 through 185 2/3 IP across 32 regular-season starts.

  • The Mariners have won 6 of his last 7 turns
  • Last start vs. Astros (July 28): 6 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 6 K

Verlander (18-4, 1.75 ERA) has a 0.83 WHIP, 1.5 BB/9 and 9.5 K/9 through 175 IP over 28 regular-season starts.

  • Last start vs. Mariners (July 29): 7 2/3 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 5 K
  • Career postseason: 14-11, 3.40 ERA (187 2/3 IP, 71 ER), 1.07 WHIP and 205 K in 31 games (30 starts)

Mariners at Astros odds

Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:55 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Mariners +180 (bet $100 to win $180) | Astros -230 (bet $230 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mariners +1.5 (-120) | Astros -1.5 (-101)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -125 | U: +100)

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Mariners at Astros picks and predictions

Prediction

Astros 5, Mariners 3

Moneyline

I’ll go ahead and PASS on the moneyline in this game with the Astros being heavily favored. Houston should be able to take care of business at home to begin its AL Division Series, but the odds aren’t worth taking the Astros straight up.

Run line/Against the spread

ASTROS -1.5 (-101) is where I’m leaning in this game, especially with Houston’s current odds to win by multiple runs. Ten of Houston’s 12 wins against Seattle this season have been by 2 runs or more.

Over/Under

Even with Gilbert and Verlander taking the mound in this game, OVER 6.5 (-125) is an enticing bet. The bats of the Mariners are hot entering the best-of-5 series and we know the Astros can score runs in bunches.

The Over has hit in 11 of the last 16 meetings between the Mariners and the Astros in Houston.

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Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Seattle Mariners (25-31) try to take the series against the Houston Astros (36-20) Wednesday in the finale of a 3-game set at Minute Maid Park. First pitch is set for 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Mariners vs. Astros odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: The Astros lead the season series 6-5.

The teams have split the first 2 games of the series with the M’s winning 7-4 Monday and the Astros winning 4-1 Tuesday.

Astros ace Justin Verlander shut things down Tuesday with 12 Ks in 7 IP after Mariners C Cal Raleigh had a career day Monday with a home run and 4 RBI. Something has to give in this back-and-forth between bitter AL West rivals that had a little extra-curricular activity Monday when benches cleared. Could there be fireworks Wednesday?

Mariners at Astros projected starters

RHP Logan Gilbert vs. RHP Jose Urquidy

Gilbert (5-2, 2.22 ERA) makes his 12th start in what has been a great start to his sophomore year. He has a 1.03 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 9.3 K/9 in 65 1/3 IP.

  • Utilizes a 96-mph fastball, slider, curve and changeup. Gilbert misses barrels as he’s in the 81st percentile in barrel percentage.
  • Shut down the Astros May 28 by tossing 7 scoreless innings, allowing 4 H with 5 K.
  • Current Astros hitting .278 against him over 74 plate appearances. That’s a little inflated because he has had trouble with just a couple of players.

Urquidy (3-4, 4.50 ERA) makes his 11th start. He has a 1.51 WHIP, 1.4 BB/9 and 7.1 K/9 in 51 IP.

  • He’s 1-2 with a 5.93 ERA, a 1.61 WHIP in 6 career games (5 starts) against Seattle.
  • Faced Gilbert and the Mariners May 28 and allowed 5 ER on 12 H, 2 BB and 4 K in 4 1/3 innings.
  • Current Mariners have hit him at a .333 clip over 77 PA. However, there hasn’t been a lot of damage against him with 1 HR and 7 doubles.

Mariners at Astros odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:49 p.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Mariners +120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Astros -145 (bet $145 to win $10)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mariners -1.5 (-175) | Astros -1.5 (-140)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)

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Mariners at Astros picks and predictions

Prediction

Mariners 4, Astros 3

Money line

The Mariners won this same pitching matchup just 11 days ago. Urquidy has allowed 3 ER or more in 4 of his last 7 starts, including one against the Mariners. The M’s are improving, led by rookie OF Julio Rodriguez, who went 3-for-5 with a double in that May 28 game. Seattle has won 6 of its last 10, and Houston isn’t the powerhouse it has been in recent years with the 21st-ranked offense. LEAN MARINERS (+120).

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Run line/Against the spread

The Mariners’ run line is too expensive at -175. So let’s look at some potential prop bets. Astros 2B Jose Altuve is 6-for-11 (.545) with 3 doubles and 1 HR against Gilbert. Astros 3B Alex Bregman is 5-for-8 (.625) with a double against him. Bregman (+112) and Altuve (-116) OVER 1.5 total bases are a couple of options either as standalone prop bets or in a parlay. I also like MARINERS FIRST 5 INNINGS (+145) with their edge on the bump.

Over/Under

The Under has cashed the last 4 times Gilbert started with an O/U over 7 runs. The Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between the 2 teams. The May 28 game was a 6-0 nothing Under hit. It’s only a LEAN, but I prefer the UNDER 8.5 (-112).

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Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Seattle Mariners (24-30) visit Minute Maid Park Monday to start a 3-game set with American League West co-tenant Houston Astros (35-19). First pitch is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Mariners vs. Astros odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Seattle has won 3 consecutive series vs. the Astros May 27-29, at the Baltimore Orioles last week and at the Texas Rangers this past weekend. The Mariners are 6-4 straight up (SU) in their last 10 games.

Houston is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games and has won 2 straight road series at the Oakland Athletics Monday-Wednesday and at the Kansas City Royals Friday-Sunday.

Season series: The Astros lead 5-4 but the Mariners have a plus-9 in run differential in those meetings.

Mariners at Astros projected starters

LHP Robbie Ray vs. RHP Cristian Javier

Ray is 4-6 with a 4.93 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 10.1 K/9 in 65 2/3 IP over 11 starts.

  • Last start: Loss, 9-2, Wednesday at the Orioles with 5 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 1 HR, 3 BB and 6 K.
  • 2022 road splits: 2-4 with a 5.86 ERA (35 1/3 IP, 23 ER), 1.44 WHIP and 10.2 K/9 in 6 starts.

Javier is 3-2 with a 2.41 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 11.4 K/9 in 41 IP across 6 starts and 4 relief appearances.

  • Last start: No-decision in 3-1 win at the Athletics Tuesday with 4 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 4 BB and 4 K.
  • 2022 vs. the Mariners: One start — a 4-0 home win May 3 — with 5 1/3-scoreless IP, 2 H, 2 BB and 4 K.

Mariners at Astros odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:50 p.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Mariners +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Astros -180 (bet $180 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mariners +1.5 (-145) | Astros -1.5 (+120)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -102 | U: -122)

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Mariners at Astros picks and predictions

Prediction

Astros 5, Mariners 3

Money line

“Flat” BET 1 unit on the ASTROS (-180) since this is a pricey ML. But, Houston is 14-4 SU both as a home favorite and vs. left-handed starters and the Astros have edges in starting and relief pitching.

Ray is the reigning AL Cy Young winner but has regressed year over year and Javier’s basic and advanced pitching numbers are superior.

Houston’s bullpen outperforms Seattle’s in ERA (4.35-2.64), FIP (4.26-3.22), home run per 9-inning rate (1.42-0.52) and most contact rates, per FanGraphs. Seattle’s bullpen could also be taxed since the Mariners have played in four straight 1-run games

Houston’s ML has been raised 20 cents on the dollar off the opener by heavy sharp action, according to Pregame.com. This movement is significant since Mariners-Astros is a division game and Ray is Seattle’s ace while Javier is a “back-of-the-rotation” guy for Houston.

If your standard wager is $100 then BET that on the ASTROS (-180) to earn a $55.56 profit.

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Run line/Against the spread

LEAN ASTROS -1.5 (+120)

Eight of their 9 meetings with the Mariners have been decided by at least 2 runs. However, Seattle is 21-14 RL as an underdog and Houston is 20-25 RL as a favorite.

There’s not a ton of value in the ASTROS -1.5 (+120) but that’s the only way to bet the RL.

Over/Under

BET UNDER 8.5 (-122) for 1 unit.

There’s a “Pros vs. Joe’s” situation in the betting market since nearly two-thirds of the cash is on the Under whereas 70% of the action is on the Over, according to Pregame.com. Typically, it’s better to follow the money because professional bettors put up more dough than your average Joe.

Minute Maid Park is also a very pitcher-friendly 26th in park factor and the Astros are 5-13 O/U as home favorites and 1-5 O/U in Javier’s 6 starts.

For what it’s worth, the UNDER 8.5 (-122) is my favorite look in this game.

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Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros odds, expert picks and prediction

Analyzing Wednesday’s Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Seattle Mariners (75-64) and Houston Astros (81-57) play the finale of a three-game series Wednesday at Minute Maid Park. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Mariners vs. Astros odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Mariners LHP Tyler Anderson (6-9, 4.08 ERA) makes his 26th start. He has a 1.17 WHIP, 7.3 K/9 and 1.8 BB/9 through 143 1/3 IP.

  • Allowed three runs, four hits and a walk across 6 IP in a no-decision at Arizona on Friday.
  • Has posted a 1-1 record with a 3.38 ERA across seven starts across 40 IP since being acquired from the Pittsburgh Pirates in late July.

Astros RHP Jose Urquidy (6-3, 3.42 ERA) makes his 16th start. He has a 0.98 WHIP, 7.7 K/9 and 1.5 BB/9 through 81 2/3 IP.

  • Yielded just two runs, five hits and a walk in 4 1/3 IP in a no-decision at San Diego Friday, his first start since returning from a right shoulder injury.
  • Hasn’t lost in five starts with two victories and no losses dating back to June 5.

Mariners at Astros odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 7:40 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Mariners +175 (bet $100 to win $175) | Astros -220 (bet $220 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Mariners +1.5 (-115) | Astros -1.5 (-105)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -125 | U: +100)

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Prediction

Mariners 6, Astros 5

Money line (ML)

The MARINERS (+175) are worth a look as rather heavy underdogs in the series finale as they look to avoid the broom.

After getting blown out 11-2 in the opener Monday, they came up just short in 10 innings by a 5-4 count Tuesday. They have a good shot against Urquidy, who isn’t likely to go very deep into the game in just his second start since returning from a lengthy absence.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

MARINERS +1.5 (-115) are a good play if you don’t quite trust Anderson and the visitors and want a little bit of insurance. This bet would have cashed Tuesday, even though Seattle lost.

Anderson has been decent since coming over from the Bucs, while Urquidy is likely to have a pitch limit before turning it over to the bullpen.

Over/Under (O/U)

OVER 8.5 (-125) is the play in the finale. The Over has connected in each of the first two games with an average of 11.0 total runs per game in the first two of the series. The Over is 8-3 in the past 11 meetings between these teams, and 5-for-5 in the past five meetings at Minute Maid Park.

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Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros odds, expert picks and prediction

Analyzing Tuesday’s Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Seattle Mariners (75-63) and Houston Astros (80-57) play the second game of a three-game series Tuesday at Minute Maid Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Mariners vs. Astros odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Mariners RHP Logan Gilbert (5-5, 5.14 ERA) makes his 20th start. He has a 1.21 WHIP, 10.0 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9 through 91 IP.

  • Posted five scoreless innings with four hits and no walks allowed last time out against Houston at T-Mobile Park Wednesday in a no-decision
  • Was hammered for nine runs, eight hits and a walk in just 4 2/3 IP in a loss at Houston Aug. 21.

Astros RHP Jake Odorizzi (6-7, 4.32 ERA) makes his 20th start and 21st appearance. He has a 1.23 WHIP, 8.2 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 through 89 2/3 IP.

  • Yielded just one run, two hits and two walks with seven strikeouts across 5 IP in a hard-luck 1-0 loss in Seattle Wednesday.
  • Allowed just one run, four hits and four walks with eight strikeouts across 5 2/3 IP in a win at home against the Mariners Aug. 21.

Mariners at Astros odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 7:50 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Mariners +140 (bet $100 to win $140) | Astros -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Mariners +1.5 (-145) | Astros -1.5 (+120)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)

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Prediction

Astros 6, Mariners 3

Money line (ML)

The ASTROS (-175) are a little on the expensive side, but play them against the Mariners (+140) and Gilbert. The latter was absolutely hammered last time he worked at Minute Maid Park in Houston. Expect more of the same.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

ASTROS -1.5 (+120) easily cashed the run line in Monday’s 11-2 series opener win. Three of the past four victories for Houston have been by two or more runs. Houston is also 6-2 in eight home games against Seattle this season, and each victory has been by two or more runs, too.

Over/Under (O/U)

OVER 8.5 (-130) is worth playing lightly. The Over has connected in each of the past four meetings between these teams at Minute Maid Park. The Over is also 5-1 in the past six road games for the M’s against a right-handed starting pitcher, and the Over is a perfect 6-0 in the past six at home for the Astros against teams with a winning overall mark.

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Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros odds, expert picks and prediction

Analyzing Monday’s Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Seattle Mariners (75-62) and Houston Astros (79-57) play the opener of a three-game series Monday at Minute Maid Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Mariners vs. Astros odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Mariners LHP Yusei Kikuchi (7-7, 4.12 ERA) makes his 26th start. He has a 1.23 WHIP, 9.3 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 through 144 1/3 IP.

  • Twirled 7 scoreless frames with 4 hits and 2 walks allowed in a no-decision against the Astros Tuesday.
  • Was hammered for 7 runs on 7 hits and 3 homers in just 2 2/3 IP in a loss Aug. 20 at Houston.

Astros RHP Lance McCullers Jr. (10-4, 3.20 ERA) makes his 24th start. He has a 1.25 WHIP, 10.5 K/9 and 4.3 BB/9 through 132 1/3 IP.

  • Allowed just 4 hits and 3 walks across 5 scoreless innings in a no-decision in Seattle Tuesday.
  • Allowed just 2 runs on 5 hits and a walk with 8 strikeouts over 6 innings in a win against the Mariners Aug. 20, also opposite Kikuchi.

Mariners at Astros odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:55 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Mariners +175 (bet $100 to win $175) | Astros -220 (bet $220 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Mariners +1.5 (-117) | Astros -1.5 (-103)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)

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Prediction

Astros 6, Mariners 3

Money line (ML)

The Astros (-220) will cost you more than two times your potential return and that’s a bit too expensive.

AVOID and look to the spread instead.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

ASTROS -1.5 (-103) are a much better play at near even money on the run line. Houston took two of three from Seattle from Aug. 20-22, and they won the first two games by a combined score of 27-4. One of those games was a 12-3 win Aug. 20 with McCullers on the hill against Kikuchi.

Over/Under (O/U)

OVER 8.5 (-110) is worth a small-unit play.

The Over has connected in seven of the last nine games on the road for the Mariners and 4-1 in their last five against a right-handed starting pitcher.

The Over is 5-0 for the Astros in their last five at home against a team with a winning record.

The Over has also hit in four of the last five meetings of these clubs at Minute Maid Park.

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