The Toronto Maple Leafs and Florida Panthers meet in Game 4 of a best-of-7 Eastern Conference semifinals series Wednesday. The Panthers lead the series 3-0. Puck drop from FLA Live Arena is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET (ESPN). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Maple Leafs vs. Panthers odds, and make our expert NHL picks and predictions.
The Panthers picked up the 3-2 overtime victory Sunday in Sunrise, pushing the Maple Leafs to the verge of being swept.
The Maple Leafs got off to a quick start, taking a 1-0 lead thanks to a 1st-period goal by C Sam Lafferty, and that’s how things ended up after the first 20 minutes.
While things were going well for the Leafs on the scoreboard, the Leafs lost G Ilya Samsonov to an upper-body injury due to a friendly fire incident in a collision with D Luke Schenn. Samsonov was unable to return and will miss Game 4. G Joseph Woll was forced into just the 2nd playoff appearance of his career and will make his 1st postseason start Wednesday.
The Panthers came alive in the 2nd period, as LW Anthony Duclair squared things up with a power-play goal at 2:36. Toronto D Erik Gustaffsson notched his 1st playoff goal at 7:32 to give the Maple Leafs a 2-1 lead but C Carter Verhaeghe leveled the score at 2-2 just under 5 minutes later. Toronto was able to hang on in a scoreless 3rd period to force OT.
C Sam Reinhart scored on a wraparound at 3:02 of the extra session, going 5-hole on Woll and pushing the Leafs to one loss away from elimination.
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Maple Leafs at Panthers odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Maple Leafs -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Panthers +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
- Puck line (PL)/Against the spread (ATS): Maple Leafs -1.5 (+195) | Panthers +1.5 (-250)
- Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)
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Maple Leafs at Panthers projected goalies
Joseph Woll (6-1-0, 2.16 GAA, .932 SV% – regular season) vs. Sergei Bobrovsky (24-20-3, 3.07 GAA, .901 SV%, 1 SO – regular season)
Woll will make his 3rd postseason appearance and the 1st playoff start of his career. He is 0-1-0 with a 3.85 GAA and .846 SV% in 2 relief appearances in the postseason to date.
Bobrovsky has helped the Panthers to 5 consecutive victories and is now 6-1-0 with a 3.13 GAA and .909 SV% in 7 starts and 1 relief appearance this postseason. He has allowed just 2 goals in each of the first 3 games in this series.
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Maple Leafs at Panthers picks and predictions
Prediction
Panthers 5, Maple Leafs 2
Moneyline
The PANTHERS (+100) are worth playing on home ice at even money.
It’s rather curious that the Maple Leafs are favored, especially with Samsonov out and Woll making his 1st-ever postseason start.
The Maple Leafs have lost 5 straight in the Conference Semifinals round, and confidence is not high that Toronto is going to break that losing skid on Wednesday.
Puck line/Against the spread
The Panthers +1.5 (-250) will cost you 2 1/2 times your potential return for a little insurance, and that’s just not worth pursuing. There is no value in playing Florida as a standalone bet or even as part of a multi-team parlay on the puck line. The Panthers have been red-hot, and the Maple Leafs just cannot be trusted. If you like Florida, play it straight up.
AVOID.
Over/Under
The OVER 6.5 (-130) is worth a look.
The driving force of an Over play is an inexperienced goalie playing for a team that is down 0-3 in this series. If Woll allows an early goal or 2, this thing could snowball in a hurry.
While the Under has cashed in 5 straight meetings between these teams, including the first 3 in this series, the money should be on the Over due to the goalie factor.
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