Looking forward to the 2020 NFL season, it’s time to start breaking down how individual players will do statistically. Below, we focus on Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes‘ projected passing numbers and how they match up against future odds at BetMGM sportsbook.
Patrick Mahomes’ stats history
Mahomes has been the starter for just two full seasons so far in the NFL, but he has been the league’s most dominant quarterback since stepping onto the field. In his first year as the Chiefs’ starter, he threw for 5,097 yards and a league-high 50 touchdowns as he was named MVP of the league.
In 2019, Mahomes started 14 games, but he was still able to throw for 4,031 yards and 26 touchdowns against just five interceptions. He saw his passing yards per game drop from 318.6 to 287.9, but it’s important to note he left one of those contests early after suffering a knee injury. When healthy, Mahomes is a pretty good bet to average 300 passing yards per game given all the talent on the Chiefs’ offense.
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Patrick Mahomes’ projected stats and odds
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Odds last updated Wednesday, April 22 at 11 am ET.
Passing Yards: 4,499.5 / OVER: -110 / UNDER: -110
Passing Touchdowns: 35.5 / OVER: -110 / UNDER: -110
As previously mentioned, Mahomes is a fairly safe bet to average close to 300 yards passing per game. So what you are betting on here is health. Can Mahomes play 15 to 16 games? If so, the Over seems very likely. If he happens to miss a few starts or if the Chiefs decide to rest him at the end of the season, that could significantly impact his passing total.
Given the number of weapons he has it his disposal and the fact he is still growing as a passer, take the OVER (-110) on passing yards for Mahomes.
Betting the Over/Under on passing touchdowns is a bit more difficult. Mahomes saw his touchdown total split in half from 2018 to 2019. Heading into the 2020 season, could Mahomes average 2.25 touchdowns per game over 16 games? It certainly seems possible, but given how random touchdowns can be in the NFL, it’s never a sure bet.
Considering this is Mahomes and we know what the potential is for him in head coach Andy Reid’s offense, take the OVER (-110) on passing touchdowns, as well. And besides, isn’t it more fun to root for Mahomes and the Over, anyway?
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