The Patriots have bet on Mac Jones as the future of their offense.
With the 15th pick in the 2021 NFL draft, the New England Patriots select Mac Jones, quarterback, Alabama.
Analysis: There is room in the game for a quarterback that you can “win with,” and that might be Jones. He might not have the ceiling the quarterbacks above him offer, but he might have one of the best floors. Jones could be a very good NFL quarterback that helps deliver a team to the playoffs. In a league filled with risk-averse decision makers, a QB with Jones’ floor might seem like a nice warm comfortable blanket of a pick. You’re just going to have to be okay with his lack of mobility and second-reaction ability, and you’ll have to have faith that he can do in the NFL what he did at Alabama without DeVonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle demolishing every cornerback they faced.
Grade: C. I like Jones’ fit with the Patriots better than most, because Bill Belichick and Josh McDaniels know how to make the most of a quick-processing pocket quarterback. The problem is, Jones is going to have to be the second coming of Tom Brady to make this work with his lack of mobility and second-reaction ability. Jones is the Patriots’ first first-round quarterback since Drew Bledsoe in 1993, and I can see this working, but I can also see Jones falling short of expectations for multiple reasons.
Alabama quarterback Mac Jones has some of the NCAA’s most ridiculous numbers. But can a pocket quarterback survive in today’s NFL?
The last we saw of Alabama quarterback Mac Jones, he was absolutely ripping Ohio State’s defense to shreds in the CFP National Championship in a 52-24 Alabama victory. Jones completed 36 of 45 passes for 464 yards, five touchdowns, and no interceptions, and he made the Buckeyes pay over and over for their ill-advised decision to stay in base defenses against the Crimson Tide’s array of targets.
It was the crowning achievement in a season in which Jones proved to be unstoppable in nearly every possible capacity. In 2020, Jones completed 311 of 402 passes for 4.500 yards, 41 touchdowns, and four interceptions. When under pressure, per Sports Info Solutions, Jones completed 56 of 88 passes for 976 yards, 556 air yards, 13 touchdowns, two interceptions, and a quarterback rating of 131.4. No quarterback in a major program had more touchdown passes or had a higher quarterback rating under pressure. On throws of 20 or more air yards, per Pro Football Focus, Jones completed 33 of 56 passes for 1.355 yards, 17 touchdowns, two interceptions, and a passer rating of 128.0. No other quarterback had more deep touchdown passes than Jones.
Play-action or not? It didn’t matter. Jones threw 19 touchdown passes to two interceptions with play-action, and 22 touchdown passes to two interceptions without. Yes, he was buttressed by Steve Sarkisian’s brilliant game plans and the talent of targets like DeVonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle (it always helps when you have two receivers who could go top 10 in the 2021 draft) and a running back as good as Najee Harris, but it was still up to Jones to make it all work.
Dec 19, 2020; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Alabama quarterback Mac Jones (10) throws against Florida in the SEC Championship Game at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. (Gary Cosby-USA TODAY Sports)
Now, the question is different. Can Mac Jones succeed at the NFL level? And the answer is more complicated than you might assume. Today’s NFL demands different things from its quarterbacks. It wasn’t so long ago that you could get away with being a statue in the pocket, making big-time throws as you were getting your head taken off occasionally by angry pass-rushers. For decades, it was considered an attribute to be able to stand and deliver in that small square no matter how often you were hit. Philip Rivers, who I think is a pretty decent comp for Mac Jones, is a primary recent example.
Rivers is now retired, and his archetype may be retired as well. In the NFL of 2021, if you can’t get outside the pocket and make second-reaction throws as a matter of course against modern defenses that switch coverage looks and blitz from everywhere and bring more kinds of pressure packages than ever before, it doesn’t matter how great you are from the pocket — you’re leaving plays on the table before you even get on the field.
And this is where Mac Jones might have a problem — especially if he’s drafted by a team with an iffy offensive line, and targets who can’t separate from coverage most of the time. In 2020, per Sports Info Solutions, Jones had just 21 dropbacks in which he eventually left the pocket. On those dropbacks, he completed just nine of 19 passes for 99 yards, 71 air yards, one touchdown, no interceptions, two sacks, and a quarterback rating of 80.8. Every single one of those dropbacks came under pressure; that is to say that the Crimson Tide called no plays whatsoever in which Jones left the pocket intentionally. Given how adaptive Nick Saban and his coaching staffs have been with mobile quarterbacks over the last few years, you have to think this is less an overall schematic constraint and more an admission that their 2020 star quarterback just had things he’s not able to do.
As a bootleg quarterback, Jones had 23 dropbacks, completing 12 of 21 passes for 135 yards, 63 air yards, three touchdowns, one interception, two sacks, and a passer rating of 96.2.
Why is this a problem? Again, in the NFL, the expectation is that you’re able to deliver just as well outside the pocket as in. Patrick Mahomes led the NFL last season with 169 dropbacks outside the pocket; he finished with 16 touchdowns and two interceptions in such instances. Six other quarterbacks (Josh Allen, Baker Mayfield, Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers, Deshaun Watson, Jared Goff) had at least 100 dropbacks outside the pocket; they combined for 69 touchdowns and 14 interceptions. 16 more quarterbacks had at least 50 dropbacks in which they wound up outside the pocket; those 16 combined for 62 touchdowns and 30 picks. Trevor Lawrence and Zach Wilson, who I’d put No. 1 and No. 2 in my quarterback rankings, have no issue with this. They can plug and play when the NFL comes calling.
It also limits Jones’ landing spots if he can’t run boot; there’s no way you wind up in a McVay/Shanahan/LaFleur offense if you can’t. And if you can’t effectively make plays on second-reaction throws… well, your real estate options just narrowed even further.
Jones’ tape shows several obvious issues, and a bit of hope.
