The Los Angeles Dodgers (88-52) play the St. Louis Cardinals (70-68) Thursday in the finale of their four-game series at Busch Stadium. First pitch is scheduled for 1:15 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Dodgers vs. Cardinals odds with MLB picks and predictions.
L.A. took the first two games of this series by a combined score of 12-3 but St. Louis responded with a 5-4 win Wednesday.
Season series: Dodgers lead 4-2.
RHP Tony Gonsolin is L.A.’s projected starter. He is 2-1 with a 2.78 ERA (35 2/3 IP, 11 ER), 1.46 WHIP, 6.6 BB/9 and 10.6 K/9 through nine starts and one relief appearance.
- Last outing: No-decision with 1 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 1 H, 5 BB and 1 K in L.A.’s 6-5 loss at the Arizona Diamondbacks July 30.
RHP Jake Woodford is on the rubber for the Cardinals. He is 2-3 with a 4.47 ERA (44 1/3 IP, 22 ER), 1.40 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9 across three starts and 18 relief appearances.
- Last start: Loss, 8-1, with 3 IP, 5 ER, 7 H, 1 BB and 3 K July 31 against the Minnesota Twins.
- Woodford worked out of the bullpen in St. Louis’s 14-3 loss at the Dodgers June 2 with 2 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 1 H, 1 BB and 1 K.
Dodgers at Cardinals odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:25 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Dodgers -175 (bet $175 to win $100) | Cardinals +140 (bet $100 to win $140)
- Against the spread/ATS: Dodgers -1.5 (-108) | Cardinals +1.5 (-112)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -135 | U:+110)
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Prediction
Dodgers 8, Cardinals 3
Money line (ML)
PASS with a slight “lean” to the Dodgers (-175) because I’d entertain throwing L.A. into a parlay with a similarly priced favorite for a plus-money payout or even only RISKING 1 unit instead of betting 1 unit. What I mean by that is if your usual sports wager is $100 then bet that on the Dodgers (-200) to hopefully earn a $50 profit.
L.A. is absolutely the right side here given it has an edge in the three most important phases of the game (starting and relief pitching and hitting), but I’ll go with the Dodgers’ run line instead.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
GIMME the DODGERS -1.5 (-108) for 1 unit because their lineup ranks sixth or better against right-handed pitching in advanced hitting metrics such as wRC+, wOBA, BB/K and hard-hit rate.
Furthermore, Woodford grades in the 35th percentile or worse in hard-hit rate, exit velocity, expected wOBA, expected slugging percentage, K% and chase rate. And St. Louis’s bullpen has struggled immensely this year.
Cardinals relievers rank second-to-last in xFIP, SIERA and K-BB% while L.A.’s bullpen is in the top-10 of most advanced pitching metrics.
Over/Under (O/U)
“LEAN” to the OVER 8.5 (-135) for a half unit because Woodford could very well get rocked by the almighty Dodgers and if he doesn’t then St. Louis’s bullpen may be in for a long night.
L.A.’s lineup chases pitches outside the zone at the fourth-best rate in baseball and has the highest hard-contact rate in the second half. Between Woodford’s poor pitching peripherals and St. Louis’s bullpen walk rate, it would be surprising if the Dodgers scored fewer than 6 runs.
If L.A. gets to St. Louis’s pitching staff, the Dodgers are likely to use their less effective relievers and the Cardinals could help Over bettors “sneak in the backdoor”.
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