The Los Angeles Dodgers (80-47) and San Diego Padres (68-60) wrap up their three-game set at Petco Park with the series finale’s first pitch scheduled for 9:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Dodgers vs. Padres odds with MLB picks and predictions.
L.A. beat San Diego 5-3 in 16 innings Wednesday for what was the longest MLB game since 2019.
The Dodgers are going for the series sweep and have won 11 of their last 12 games while the Padres are just 2-8 over their last 10 games.
Season series: Padres lead 7-5.
RHP Max Scherzer gets the start for the Dodgers. He is 11-4 with a 2.65 ERA (132 1/3 IP, 39 ER), 0.91 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 12.1 K/9 through 23 starts.
- Last outing: Win, 4-3, with 5 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 1 BB and 8 K Saturday against the New York Mets.
- Scherzer has two no-decisions against San Diego this season with a 9.28 ERA (10 2/3 IP, 11 ER), 9 H, 4 BB and 15 K in two starts.
- vs. Padres on the current roster (177 PA): 3.98 FIP with a .239 batting average (BA), .328 wOBA, .463 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 33.3 K% and 90.9 mph exit velocity (EV).
RHP Yu Darvish is San Diego’s projected starter. He is 7-7 with a 3.70 ERA (131 1/3 IP, 54 ER), 1.03 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 10.8 K/9 through 23 starts.
- Last outing: Loss, 12-3, 2 2/3 IP, 5 ER, 6 H, 1 BB and 4 K at the Arizona Diamondbacks Aug. 12.
- Darvish is 2-1 with a 1.35 ERA (20 IP, 3 ER), 0.65 WHIP and 4.8 K/BB rate in three starts against L.A. this year.
- vs. Dodgers on the current roster (118 PA): 3.17 FIP with a .133 BA, .215 wOBA, .226 xSLG, 36.4 K% and 85.4 mph EV.
Dodgers at Padres odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 3:30 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Dodgers -145 (bet $145 to win $100) | Padres +120 (bet $100 to win $120)
- Against the spread/ATS: Dodgers -1.5 (+122) | Padres +1.5 (-155)
- Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)
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Prediction
Dodgers 6, Padres 3
Money line (ML)
BET the DODGERS (-145) for 1 unit because backing Scherzer as a road favorite in recent seasons has been very profitable and Scherzer has been far better than Darvish over the past couple of months.
Scherzer’s teams are 13-3 overall when they are -135 or greater money line favorites on the road with a plus-25.3% return on investment since the beginning of 2019.
Furthermore, Scherzer has been awesome since joining L.A. and Darvish has really struggled since the “spider tack” memo went into effect.
With the Dodgers, Scherzer is 3-0 with a 2.11 ERA (21 1/3 IP, 5 ER), 0.98 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 13.1 K/9 over four starts. Since June 21 when the pitching substances policy became official, Darvish is 1-5 with a 5.70 ERA (47 1/3 IP, 30 ER), 46 H, 9 BB, 61 K and 12 home runs allowed in nine starts.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS because Darvish has pitched very well against the Dodgers this season and his only win in his last nine starts was against L.A. June 21.
Plus, this series has a playoff-like intensity to it so I don’t think the Dodgers -1.5 (+122) is a fat enough payout considering these factors.
Over/Under (O/U)
Slight “LEAN” to the OVER 7.5 (-115) for a small wager as a “contrarian play” against the majority of the market that is backing the Under because of the big-name starters on the mound.
It makes sense, however, both pitching staffs have to be weathered after Wednesday’s 16-inning affair and each lineup is due for a slump buster as neither club scored more than 5 runs in any of its last six games.
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