Tag: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Cincinnati Reds odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

The Los Angeles Dodgers (95-54) meet the Cincinnati Reds (77-72) Sunday for their three-game series finale at Great American Ball Park with the first pitch scheduled for 1:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Dodgers vs. Reds odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Cincinnati took the opener 3-1. Los Angeles won 5-1 Saturday behind a masterful pitching performance from NL Cy Young front runner Max Scherzer, who had 7 IP with 0 ER, 2 H, 2 BB and 7 K.

Dodgers LHP Clayton Kershaw makes his 20th start of the season. Kershaw is 9-7 with a 3.33 ERA (110 2/3 IP, 41 ER), 0.99 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 10.7 K/9 this year.

• Last outing: No-decision in 5-1 home win over the Arizona Diamondbacks Monday with 4 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB and 5 K.
• Kershaw picked up an 8-0 win against Cincy April 28 with 7 IP, 4 H, 1 BB and 8 K.
• vs. Reds on the current roster: 2.97 FIP with a .141 batting average (BA), .212 wOBA, .231 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 36.0 K% and 82.0 mph exit velocity (EV) in 86 plate appearances (PA).

LHP Wade Miley is Cincy’s projected starter. Miley is 12-6 with a 3.09 ERA (160 IP, 55 ER), 1.29 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 6.9 K/9 in 27 starts.

• Last outing: Loss, 6-5, with 4 1/3 IP, 5 ER, 10 H, 2 BB and 1 K Tuesday at the Pittsburgh Pirates.
• vs. Dodgers on the current roster: 3.93 FIP with a .268 BA, .326 wOBA, .457 xSLG, 21.7 K% and 89.6 mph EV in 106 PA.

Dodgers at Reds odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 4:14 a.m. ET.

• Money line: Dodgers -200 (bet $200 to win $100) | Reds +160 (bet $100 to win $160)
• Against the spread/ATS: Dodgers -1.5 (-117) | Reds +1.5 (-103)
• Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -125 | U: +100)

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Prediction

Dodgers 6, Reds 3

Money line (ML)

L.A. has so many clear edges across the board that I cannot even think about Cincy’s money line in this spot, but the Dodgers (-200) are a little too expensive.

Also, this is only Kershaw’s second start back from IL stint and I’d like to see some more of him before risking two times my return on a money line.

PASS. 

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

BET the DODGERS -1.5 (-117) because, if Kershaw knocked the rust off in his previous start, L.A. has a massive advantage in this matchup.

Cincy’s lineup is terrible against left-handed pitching: 29th in wRC+, 26th in wOBA and 24th-fewest home runs hit.

Additionally, we are getting “sharp line movement” toward L.A., which opened at a -107 consensus run line but has been moved up because early bettors hammered the DODGERS -1.5.

We don’t need vintage Kershaw because the Reds have been struggling at the plate recently. In September, Cincy’s lineup is in the bottom 10 of several advanced hitting metrics including wRC+, wOBA and WAR.

Over/Under (O/U)

Slight “LEAN” to the UNDER 8.5 (+100) for a tiny wager because I’m much more confident in the Dodgers covering than the total.

Miley might not have the most eye-popping numbers, but he induces soft contact and ranks in the 94th percentile in EV, 82nd percentile in hard-hit rate and 78th percentile in chase rate. Plus, Cincy’s bullpen has been lights out this month.

The combination of Kershaw on the mound, Cincy’s struggles against left-handed pitching and sneaky strong pitching from the Reds equals a small bet on UNDER 8.5 (+100).

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The Cincinnati Reds (77-71) host the Los Angeles Dodgers (94-54) for the second of their three-game series Saturday at Great American Ball Park. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Dodgers vs. Reds odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Cincy won the series opener Friday 3-1 as starting RHP Luis Castillo had 6 1/3 IP with 0 ER, 5 H, 2 BB and 10 K and Reds SS Kyle Farmer‘s 6th-inning 2-run double put the game out of reach.

Season series: Reds lead 3-1.

RHP Max Scherzer takes the hill for the Dodgers. Scherzer is 14-4 with a 2.17 ERA (162 IP, 34 ER), 0.82 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 12.2 K/9 across 27 starts for the Dodgers and the Washington Nationals.

• Last outing: Win, 8-0, with 8 IP, 1 H, 0 BB and 9 K against the San Diego Padres.
• Scherzer beat Cincy May 25, 2-1, while pitching for Washington with 7 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 1 BB and 9 K.
• vs. Reds on the current roster: 2.70 FIP with a .183 batting average (BA), .251 wOBA, .337 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 34.1 K% and 89.4 mph exit velocity (EV) in 205 plate appearances (PA).

RHP Sonny Gray is Cincy’s projected starter. Gray is 7-7 with a 3.80 ERA (120 2/3 IP, 51 ER), 1.19 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 10.5 K/9 over 23 starts.

• Last outing: Loss, 2-0, with 7 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 1 BB and 6 K Sunday at the St. Louis Cardinals.
• Gray lost at L.A., 8-0, April 28 with 5 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 3 BB and 11 K.
• vs. Dodgers on the current roster: 3.01 FIP with a .202 BA, .250 wOBA, .292 xSLG, 23.9 K% and 87.4 mph EV in 109 PA.

Dodgers at Reds odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:50 a.m. ET.

• Money line: Dodgers -210 (bet $210 to win $100) | Reds +170 (bet $100 to win $170)
• Against the spread/ATS: Dodgers -1.5 (-125) | Reds +1.5 (+102)
• Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)

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Prediction

Dodgers 6, Reds 2

Money line (ML)

PASS with a heavy “lean” on the Dodgers (-210) just because they are the right side since L.A. has a significant edge in the three most important phases of the game (starting and relief pitching and hitting).

However, the Dodgers is on the fringe of my price range, and if I were to bet L.A.’s money line I’d most likely be including it in a parlay with another similarly priced favorite.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

BET DODGERS -1.5 (-125) for 1 unit because Scherzer has pitched well in Cincy, Gray has been less effective at home this season and there has been “sharp line movement” in L.A.’s direction.

Scherzer has won all three of his career starts at the Great American Ball Park. He has only allowed 1 ER in his 20 IP at Cincy’s home ballpark with a 35/6 K/BB rate.

In fact, Scherzer is dialed in as the Dodgers hit the home stretch of their season. Since joining L.A. at the trade deadline, Scherzer is 6-0 with a 0.88 ERA and a 14.4 K/BB rate and is now the favorite to win the NL Cy Young.

Furthermore, Gray has a losing home record with a 4.65 ERA (2.97 road ERA), 1.25 WHIP (1.12 road WHIP) and has given up 11 home runs in 12 home starts (five home runs allowed in 11 road starts).

Lastly, according to Pregame.com, L.A.’s run line opened with roughly a -110 consensus price-point because both sides of the market bet this line up.

Let’s follow the “pros” and “joes” on the DODGERS -1.5 (-125) before this price gets out of control.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the UNDER 8.5 (-115) only because I’m fearful L.A.’s explosive lineup can do some real damage to Gray, and if this game is out of reach Cincy might use its less effective relievers.

That said, if Gray doesn’t get raked too badly, he’ll turn the game over to a Cincy bullpen that has pitched very well this month. For instance, Cincy’s bullpen has the best xFIP, SIERA and K-BB% in September. Also, both lineups rank below-average in wRC+, wOBA and WAR this month.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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The Los Angeles Dodgers (94-53) travel to the Great American Ball Park Friday to begin a three-game series with the Cincinnati Reds (76-71) at 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Dodgers vs. Reds odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Reds lead 2-1.

RHP Walker Buehler is L.A.’s projected starter. Buehler is 14-3 with a 2.32 ERA (186 IP, 48 ER), 0.95 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 9.1 K/9 across 29 starts.

• Last outing: Win, 5-4, with 7 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 2 BB and 5 K Saturday vs. the San Diego Padres.
• Buehler got a no-decision against Cincy with 6 1/3 IP, 5 ER, 7 H, 1 BB and 10 K in L.A.’s 6-5 loss April 27.
• vs. Reds on the current roster (70 PA): 2.73 FIP with a .227 batting average (BA), .269 wOBA, .398 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 28.6 K% and 88.0 mph exit velocity (EV).

RHP Luis Castillo makes his 31st start for the Reds. Castillo is 7-15 with a 4.24 ERA (170 IP, 80 ER), 1.36 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 9.1 K/9 this year.

• Last outing: No-decision in Cincy’s 6-4 loss at the St. Louis Cardinals Saturday with 7 IP, 4 ER, 8 H, 1 BB and 5 K.
• vs. Dodgers on the current roster: (37 PA): 2.47 FIP with a .188 BA, .265 wOBA, .296 xSLG, 37.8 K% and 84.6 mph EV.

Dodgers at Reds odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 3:20 p.m. ET.

• Money line: Dodgers -175 (bet $175 to win $100) | Reds +140 (bet $100 to win $140)
• Against the spread/ATS: Dodgers -1.5 (+100) | Reds +1.5 (-120)
• Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -108 | U:-112)

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Prediction

Reds 4, Dodgers 2

Money line (ML)

PASS with a slight “lean” to the Reds (+140) because I like them on the run line and Castillo has been at his best in September throughout his career while Buehler’s September numbers have been subpar.

September is Castillo’s best month by winning percentage (62.5%), ERA (2.60) and WHIP (0.97) of any monthly split throughout his career. On the other hand, September is Buehler’s second-worst month by ERA (3.52) and WHIP (1.09) and worst by K/BB (3.2).

Ultimately, Cincy’s run line is the better play because the Reds are playing their standard fall baseball (5-9 in September) and L.A. is heating up as the postseason nears (10-4 in September).

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

“LEAN” to the REDS +1.5 (-120) since there’s an obvious “line freeze” in the betting market but Cincy is just 3-9 ATS as a home underdog.

Roughly 95% of the action is on L.A.’s run line according to pregame.com, but the consensus price hasn’t budged, which is a red flag. You’d think oddsmakers would be making the Dodgers a little more expensive but sportsbooks seem to be enticing more L.A. action. Let’s jump on the same side as the house.

Over/Under (O/U)

GIMME UNDER 8.5 (-112) because Cincy has struggled at the plate in September, but has been the best bullpen in baseball this month and Buehler is a pitcher I’ve been high on for years now.

Cincy’s bullpen is leading the majors in xFIP, SIERA and K-BB% in September. However, Reds hitters rank in the bottom 10 of wRC+, WAR, wOBA and hard-hit rate over that span. Also, Buehler has allowed 2 or fewer earned runs in 23 of his 29 starts this season and has 25 quality starts.

Furthermore, there’s more money on the Under but more bets placed on the Over so the Under feels like the sharper play. That said, the Over is more expensive, which suggests the House is trying to goad more pro-Under bets.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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