The Los Angeles Dodgers (63-43) and Arizona Diamondbacks (33-72) play the rubber match of their three-game series Sunday. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET at Chase Field. Let’s analyze the lines around the Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Dodgers LHP Julio Urias (12-3, 3.54 ERA) makes his 22nd start of the year. He has a 1.06 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 9.5 K/9 through 124 2/3 IP.
- Urias has allowed 2 or fewer earned runs in five of his last six starts.
- He went 6 2/3 innings in his only start this season against the Diamondbacks allowing 1 run on 3 hits and striking out 8 without issuing a walk. He picked up the win in a 9-1 victory.
Diamondbacks LHP Caleb Smith (3-7, 4.61 ERA) makes his 12th start. He has a 1.32 WHIP, 4.5 BB/9 and 10.3 K/9 through 84 IP.
- This will be his third start of the year against the Dodgers. He lasted 1 inning and allowed 9 runs on 6 hits and 3 walks in a 22-1 loss July 10 in Los Angeles last time he faced them.
- Arizona is 2-9 when Smith starts this season.
Dodgers at Diamondbacks odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:37 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Dodgers -270 (bet $270 to win $100) | Diamondbacks +200 (bet $100 to win $200)
- Against the spread/ATS: Dodgers -2.5 (-110) | Diamondbacks +2.5 (-125)
- Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -120 | U: -120)
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Prediction
Dodgers 5, Diamondbacks 3
Money line (ML)
The Dodgers are now 10-2 against the Diamondbacks. Their 30 road wins are third-most in the majors, trailing just the Milwaukee Brewers and San Francisco Giants. While they have lost Urias’ last two starts they are 15-6 when he is on the mound, including a 9-3 record on the road.
The Diamondbacks had their five-game home win streak snapped Saturday. You can’t ignore the fact they are 2-9 with Smith starting, and that he has allowed 5 or more runs in three of his last four starts.
Take the DODGERS (-270).
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
The Dodgers are 50-56 ATS overall, and 25-30 ATS on the road, and will have to win by at least 3 runs to cover this afternoon. They have won by at least 3 runs only twice in their last 13 games, although six of their 10 wins over Arizona would cover that spread.
The Diamondbacks are 51-54 ATS overall but 28-23 ATS at Chase Field. Five of their nine losses with Smith starting have been by at least 3 runs, but they only have three such losses in their last 12 games.
While I expect Arizona to lose outright, I like them for the cover with the larger spread. Take the DIAMONDBACKS +2.5 (-125).
Over/Under (O/U)
Angel Stadium is the only ballpark with a higher Over percentage than Chase Field’s 62.0% this season.
Both games in the series have had double-digit totals, and seven of the 12 games between the two teams have had totals of 10 or more.
That said, only three of Urias’ last 10 starts and three of Smith’s 11 starts have had totals of 10 or more runs.
Take UNDER 9.5 (-120).
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