Los Angeles Dodgers odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line – Page 4

Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Reds odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Reds odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Cincinnati Reds (77-71) host the Los Angeles Dodgers (94-54) for the second of their three-game series Saturday at Great American Ball Park. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Dodgers vs. Reds odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Cincy won the series opener Friday 3-1 as starting RHP Luis Castillo had 6 1/3 IP with 0 ER, 5 H, 2 BB and 10 K and Reds SS Kyle Farmer‘s 6th-inning 2-run double put the game out of reach.

Season series: Reds lead 3-1.

RHP Max Scherzer takes the hill for the Dodgers. Scherzer is 14-4 with a 2.17 ERA (162 IP, 34 ER), 0.82 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 12.2 K/9 across 27 starts for the Dodgers and the Washington Nationals.

Last outing: Win, 8-0, with 8 IP, 1 H, 0 BB and 9 K against the San Diego Padres.
Scherzer beat Cincy May 25, 2-1, while pitching for Washington with 7 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 1 BB and 9 K.
vs. Reds on the current roster: 2.70 FIP with a .183 batting average (BA), .251 wOBA, .337 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 34.1 K% and 89.4 mph exit velocity (EV) in 205 plate appearances (PA).

RHP Sonny Gray is Cincy’s projected starter. Gray is 7-7 with a 3.80 ERA (120 2/3 IP, 51 ER), 1.19 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 10.5 K/9 over 23 starts.

Last outing: Loss, 2-0, with 7 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 1 BB and 6 K Sunday at the St. Louis Cardinals.
Gray lost at L.A., 8-0, April 28 with 5 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 3 BB and 11 K.
vs. Dodgers on the current roster: 3.01 FIP with a .202 BA, .250 wOBA, .292 xSLG, 23.9 K% and 87.4 mph EV in 109 PA.

Dodgers at Reds odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:50 a.m. ET.

Money line: Dodgers -210 (bet $210 to win $100) | Reds +170 (bet $100 to win $170)
Against the spread/ATS: Dodgers -1.5 (-125) | Reds +1.5 (+102)
Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)

Prediction

Dodgers 6, Reds 2

Money line (ML)

PASS with a heavy “lean” on the Dodgers (-210) just because they are the right side since L.A. has a significant edge in the three most important phases of the game (starting and relief pitching and hitting).

However, the Dodgers is on the fringe of my price range, and if I were to bet L.A.’s money line I’d most likely be including it in a parlay with another similarly priced favorite.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

BET DODGERS -1.5 (-125) for 1 unit because Scherzer has pitched well in Cincy, Gray has been less effective at home this season and there has been “sharp line movement” in L.A.’s direction.

Scherzer has won all three of his career starts at the Great American Ball Park. He has only allowed 1 ER in his 20 IP at Cincy’s home ballpark with a 35/6 K/BB rate.

In fact, Scherzer is dialed in as the Dodgers hit the home stretch of their season. Since joining L.A. at the trade deadline, Scherzer is 6-0 with a 0.88 ERA and a 14.4 K/BB rate and is now the favorite to win the NL Cy Young.

Furthermore, Gray has a losing home record with a 4.65 ERA (2.97 road ERA), 1.25 WHIP (1.12 road WHIP) and has given up 11 home runs in 12 home starts (five home runs allowed in 11 road starts).

Lastly, according to Pregame.com, L.A.’s run line opened with roughly a -110 consensus price-point because both sides of the market bet this line up.

Let’s follow the “pros” and “joes” on the DODGERS -1.5 (-125) before this price gets out of control.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the UNDER 8.5 (-115) only because I’m fearful L.A.’s explosive lineup can do some real damage to Gray, and if this game is out of reach Cincy might use its less effective relievers.

That said, if Gray doesn’t get raked too badly, he’ll turn the game over to a Cincy bullpen that has pitched very well this month. For instance, Cincy’s bullpen has the best xFIP, SIERA and K-BB% in September. Also, both lineups rank below-average in wRC+, wOBA and WAR this month.

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Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Reds odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Friday’s Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Reds odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Los Angeles Dodgers (94-53) travel to the Great American Ball Park Friday to begin a three-game series with the Cincinnati Reds (76-71) at 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Dodgers vs. Reds odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Reds lead 2-1.

RHP Walker Buehler is L.A.’s projected starter. Buehler is 14-3 with a 2.32 ERA (186 IP, 48 ER), 0.95 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 9.1 K/9 across 29 starts.

Last outing: Win, 5-4, with 7 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 2 BB and 5 K Saturday vs. the San Diego Padres.
Buehler got a no-decision against Cincy with 6 1/3 IP, 5 ER, 7 H, 1 BB and 10 K in L.A.’s 6-5 loss April 27.
vs. Reds on the current roster (70 PA): 2.73 FIP with a .227 batting average (BA), .269 wOBA, .398 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 28.6 K% and 88.0 mph exit velocity (EV).

RHP Luis Castillo makes his 31st start for the Reds. Castillo is 7-15 with a 4.24 ERA (170 IP, 80 ER), 1.36 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 9.1 K/9 this year.

Last outing: No-decision in Cincy’s 6-4 loss at the St. Louis Cardinals Saturday with 7 IP, 4 ER, 8 H, 1 BB and 5 K.
vs. Dodgers on the current roster: (37 PA): 2.47 FIP with a .188 BA, .265 wOBA, .296 xSLG, 37.8 K% and 84.6 mph EV.

Dodgers at Reds odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 3:20 p.m. ET.

Money line: Dodgers -175 (bet $175 to win $100) | Reds +140 (bet $100 to win $140)
Against the spread/ATS: Dodgers -1.5 (+100) | Reds +1.5 (-120)
Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -108 | U:-112)

Prediction

Reds 4, Dodgers 2

Money line (ML)

PASS with a slight “lean” to the Reds (+140) because I like them on the run line and Castillo has been at his best in September throughout his career while Buehler’s September numbers have been subpar.

September is Castillo’s best month by winning percentage (62.5%), ERA (2.60) and WHIP (0.97) of any monthly split throughout his career. On the other hand, September is Buehler’s second-worst month by ERA (3.52) and WHIP (1.09) and worst by K/BB (3.2).

Ultimately, Cincy’s run line is the better play because the Reds are playing their standard fall baseball (5-9 in September) and L.A. is heating up as the postseason nears (10-4 in September).

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

“LEAN” to the REDS +1.5 (-120) since there’s an obvious “line freeze” in the betting market but Cincy is just 3-9 ATS as a home underdog.

Roughly 95% of the action is on L.A.’s run line according to pregame.com, but the consensus price hasn’t budged, which is a red flag. You’d think oddsmakers would be making the Dodgers a little more expensive but sportsbooks seem to be enticing more L.A. action. Let’s jump on the same side as the house.

Over/Under (O/U)

GIMME UNDER 8.5 (-112) because Cincy has struggled at the plate in September, but has been the best bullpen in baseball this month and Buehler is a pitcher I’ve been high on for years now.

Cincy’s bullpen is leading the majors in xFIP, SIERA and K-BB% in September. However, Reds hitters rank in the bottom 10 of wRC+, WAR, wOBA and hard-hit rate over that span. Also, Buehler has allowed 2 or fewer earned runs in 23 of his 29 starts this season and has 25 quality starts.

Furthermore, there’s more money on the Under but more bets placed on the Over so the Under feels like the sharper play. That said, the Over is more expensive, which suggests the House is trying to goad more pro-Under bets.

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San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Sunday’s San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Los Angeles Dodgers (90-53) host the San Diego Padres (74-67) Sunday for the finale of their three-game series at Dodger Stadium with the first pitch scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Padres vs. Dodgers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

L.A. won the first two games of the series by a combined score of 8-4 as NL Cy Young contender Walker Buehler gave the Dodgers a quality start and OF Mookie Betts went 2-for-3 with a home run and 4 RBIs in Saturday’s 5-4 win.

Season series: Dodgers lead 8-7.

Padres LHP Blake Snell is 7-6 with a 4.22 ERA (128 IP, 60 ER), 1.33 WHIP, 4.9 BB/9 and 12.0 K/9 in 26 starts.

Last outing: Loss, 4-0, with 7 IP, 2 ER, 1 H, 2 BB and 11 K Tuesday against the Los Angeles Angels.
Snell is 1-0 with a 1.96 ERA (23 IP, 5 ER), 1.00 WHIP and 4.1 K/BB through four starts against the Dodgers this season.
vs. Dodgers on the current roster (145 PA): 3.56 FIP with a .198 batting average (BA), .271 wOBA, .470 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 30.3 K% and 87.7 mph exit velocity (EV).

Dodgers RHP Max Scherzer is 13-4 with a 2.28 ERA (154 IP, 39 ER), 0.86 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 12.3 K/9 in 26 starts for the Dodgers and Washington Nationals.

Last outing: Win, 5-1, with 8 IP, 1 unearned run, 6 H, 0 BB and 13 K Monday at the St. Louis Cardinals.
Scherzer is 1-0 with a 5.40 ERA (18 1/3 IP, 11 ER), 0.87 WHIP and 4.0 K/BB in three starts against San Diego.
vs. Padres on the current roster (210 PA): 3.04 FIP with a .211 BA, .289 wOBA, .380 xSLG, 35.2 K% and 90.8 mph EV.

Padres at Dodgers odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:05 p.m. ET.

Money line: Padres +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Dodgers -180 (bet $180 to win $100)
Against the spread/ATS: Padres +1.5 (-145) | Dodgers -1.5 (+120)
Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -105 | U:-120)

Prediction

Padres 4, Dodgers 2

Money line (ML)

“LEAN” with a half-unit wager on the PADRES (+145) because we are seeing some “reverse line movement” (RLM) in the betting market and I like San Diego’s run line for some insurance.

Uggghhh, this feels square because I’m relying on Snell to keep up his perhaps unsustainable pitching performance against the defending champs and Scherzer to continue his struggles against a Padres lineup that’s significantly underperformed expectations this season.

However, this is why San Diego acquired Snell this offseason. The Padres are freefalling out of playoff positioning, their hitting is mediocre, at best, and they desperately need Snell to be a “stopper” Sunday.

His advanced numbers against the Dodgers back up his performance against them this year and he is the only reason I have to explain the RLM toward San Diego.

Nearly 90% of the cash wagered is on the Dodgers but their price has been lowered from the -195 price point. It’s always a red flag when the oddsmakers try to entice more action on the more popular side by making them cheaper.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

BET PADRES +1.5 (-145) for a half unit because it’s the wiser wager hence it being pretty expensive. The reason for San Diego’s run line price is the Padres are 13-5 ATS as road underdogs and L.A. is just 33-38 ATS as a home favorite.

Also, we have a “pros vs. joes” scenario in the betting market accompanied by some sharp line movement in San Diego’s direction. More than 60% of the cash is on the Padres’ run line while nearly two-thirds of the bets placed are with the Dodgers, according to Pregame.com.

Typically, in sports betting, it’s better to follow the money especially when it’s flowing in the opposite direction as the public. The presumed sharp money has pushed San Diego’s run line from -117 on the opener to the listed price.

Over/Under (O/U)

Aside from Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado, the Padres can’t count on anyone at the plate and Snell has been throwing gas against the Dodgers this year. Also, Scherzer has to be champing at the bit to get right against San Diego.

That said, an overwhelming majority of the market agrees with this take and I hate following a crowd in sports betting. “LEAN” to the UNDER 7.5 (-120) for a half unit.

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San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The San Diego Padres (74-66) clash with the NL West rival Los Angeles Dodgers (89-53) in the second game of their three-game set at Dodger Stadium. First pitch is scheduled for 9:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Padres vs. Dodgers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

L.A. shutout San Diego 3-0 Friday in the series opener as Dodgers starting LHP Julio Urias had 7 IP with 3 H, 1 BB and 7 K and 1B Max Muncy‘s 2-run homer in the 3rd-inning was enough for the win.

Season series: Tied 7-7.

RHP Chris Paddack takes the hill for the Padres. Paddack is 7-6 with a 4.95 ERA (103 2/3 IP, 57 ER), 1.27 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 8.2 K/9 in 21 starts and one relief appearance.

Last outing: No-decision in San Diego’s 4-3 home victory over the Houston Astros Sunday with a stat line of 6 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 0 BB and 0 K.
Road splits: 4-2 with a 3.74 ERA (55 1/3 IP, 23 ER), 0.99 WHIP and 6.6 K/9 in 11 starts.
vs. Dodgers on the current roster (69 PA): 6.48 FIP with a .344 batting average (BA), .446 wOBA, .559 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 17.4 K% and 92.0 mph exit velocity (EV).

RHP Walker Buehler is L.A.’s projected starter. Buehler is 13-3 with a 2.31 ERA (179 IP, 46 ER), 0.94 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 9.3 K/9 in 28 starts.

Last outing: Loss, 6-4, with 3 IP, 6 ER, 7 H, 1 BB and 1 K Sunday at the San Francisco Giants.
Buehler has three no-decisions this year against San Diego with a 1.83 ERA (19 2/3 IP, 4 ER), 0.81 WHIP and 10.5 K/BB in three starts.
vs. Padres on the current roster (150 PA): 3.67 FIP with a .180 BA, .238 wOBA, .443 xSLG, 28.0 K% and 88.8 mph EV.

Padres at Dodgers odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 3:35 p.m. ET.

Money line: Padres +180 (bet $100 to win $180) | Dodgers -230 (bet $230 to win $100)
Against the spread/ATS: Padres +1.5 (-120) | Dodgers -1.5 (+100)
Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -120 | U:-105)

Prediction

Dodgers 4, Padres 2

Money line (ML)

PASS because the Dodgers (-230) exceeds my buy price of -180 for L.A. in this spot and we’re seeing slight “reverse line movement” in the betting market thus far.

According to Pregame.com, nearly 90% of the action is on L.A. money line but the Dodgers have gotten cheaper by 10 cents on the dollar since the opener. It’s suspicious whenever a sportsbook makes the far more popular side cheaper.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

“LEAN” to the DODGERS -1.5 (+100) for a half unit because Paddack is a fringe rotation guy for the Padres and has scary pitching peripherals against L.A.’s lineup. While Buehler has pitched well vs. San Diego despite not picking up a win yet and has the best odds to win the NL Cy Young.

Over/Under (O/U)

TAKE UNDER 7.5 (-105) for 1 unit because both lineups have struggled recently and the Under is 3-0-1 in the last four Padres-Dodgers meetings.

Both San Diego’s and L.A.’s lineup has been below-average in wRC+, wOBA and WAR over the last two weeks, with the Dodgers being ranked worse surprisingly. Also, each bullpen has been a top-tier unit this year.

I’m expecting a playoff-like atmosphere as these teams are currently the two NL Wild Card seeds with L.A. being just 2.5 games back of first in the NL West and San Diego trying to fend off the Cincinnati Reds for the second NL Wild Card berth. Typically, MLB playoff games are tighter and lower scoring.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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Los Angeles Dodgers at St. Louis Cardinals odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Thursday’s Los Angeles Dodgers at St. Louis Cardinals odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Los Angeles Dodgers (88-52) play the St. Louis Cardinals (70-68) Thursday in the finale of their four-game series at Busch Stadium. First pitch is scheduled for 1:15 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Dodgers vs. Cardinals odds with MLB picks and predictions.

L.A. took the first two games of this series by a combined score of 12-3 but St. Louis responded with a 5-4 win Wednesday.

Season series: Dodgers lead 4-2.

RHP Tony Gonsolin is L.A.’s projected starter. He is 2-1 with a 2.78 ERA (35 2/3 IP, 11 ER), 1.46 WHIP, 6.6 BB/9 and 10.6 K/9 through nine starts and one relief appearance.

Last outing: No-decision with 1 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 1 H, 5 BB and 1 K in L.A.’s 6-5 loss at the Arizona Diamondbacks July 30.

RHP Jake Woodford is on the rubber for the Cardinals. He is 2-3 with a 4.47 ERA (44 1/3 IP, 22 ER), 1.40 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9 across three starts and 18 relief appearances.

Last start: Loss, 8-1, with 3 IP, 5 ER, 7 H, 1 BB and 3 K July 31 against the Minnesota Twins.
Woodford worked out of the bullpen in St. Louis’s 14-3 loss at the Dodgers June 2 with 2 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 1 H, 1 BB and 1 K.

Dodgers at Cardinals odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:25 a.m. ET.

Money line: Dodgers -175 (bet $175 to win $100) | Cardinals +140 (bet $100 to win $140)
Against the spread/ATS: Dodgers -1.5 (-108) | Cardinals +1.5 (-112)
Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -135 | U:+110)

Prediction

Dodgers 8, Cardinals 3

Money line (ML)

PASS with a slight “lean” to the Dodgers (-175) because I’d entertain throwing L.A. into a parlay with a similarly priced favorite for a plus-money payout or even only RISKING 1 unit instead of betting 1 unit. What I mean by that is if your usual sports wager is $100 then bet that on the Dodgers (-200) to hopefully earn a $50 profit.

L.A. is absolutely the right side here given it has an edge in the three most important phases of the game (starting and relief pitching and hitting), but I’ll go with the Dodgers’ run line instead.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

GIMME the DODGERS -1.5 (-108) for 1 unit because their lineup ranks sixth or better against right-handed pitching in advanced hitting metrics such as wRC+, wOBA, BB/K and hard-hit rate.

Furthermore, Woodford grades in the 35th percentile or worse in hard-hit rate, exit velocity, expected wOBA, expected slugging percentage, K% and chase rate. And St. Louis’s bullpen has struggled immensely this year.

Cardinals relievers rank second-to-last in xFIP, SIERA and K-BB% while L.A.’s bullpen is in the top-10 of most advanced pitching metrics.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the OVER 8.5 (-135) for a half unit because Woodford could very well get rocked by the almighty Dodgers and if he doesn’t then St. Louis’s bullpen may be in for a long night.

L.A.’s lineup chases pitches outside the zone at the fourth-best rate in baseball and has the highest hard-contact rate in the second half. Between Woodford’s poor pitching peripherals and St. Louis’s bullpen walk rate, it would be surprising if the Dodgers scored fewer than 6 runs.

If L.A. gets to St. Louis’s pitching staff, the Dodgers are likely to use their less effective relievers and the Cardinals could help Over bettors “sneak in the backdoor”.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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Atlanta Braves at Los Angeles Dodgers odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Wednesday’s Atlanta Braves at Los Angeles Dodgers odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Atlanta Braves (70-61) finish off their three-game set with the Los Angeles Dodgers (84-49) Wednesday at Dodger Stadium with the first pitch scheduled for 10:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Braves vs. Dodgers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

L.A. has won the first two games of the series by a combined score of 8-5 and has pulled within a half-game of the San Francisco Giants for first place in the NL West.

Season series: Dodgers lead 3-2.

LHP Max Fried is Atlanta’s projected starter. Fried is 11-7 with a 3.54 ERA (124 2/3 IP, 49 ER), 1.20 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 8.8 K/9 in 22 starts.

Last outing: No-decision with 6 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 0 BB and 5 K in Atlanta’s 6-5 victory over the San Francisco Giants Friday.
Fried beat the Dodgers with a stat line of 6 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 0 BB and 4 K in Atlanta’s 4-2 home win June 6.
- vs. Dodgers on the current roster: 5.27 FIP with a .309 batting average (BA), .376 wOBA, .442 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 25.2 K% and 90.7 mph exit velocity (EV) in 123 plate appearances (PA).

RHP Max Scherzer gets the nod for the Dodgers. Scherzer is 12-4 with a 2.51 ERA (140 IP, 39 ER), 0.88 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 12.1 K/9 in 24 starts.

Last outing: Win, 4-0, with 7 2/3 IP, 2 H, 1 BB and 10 K at the San Diego Padres Thursday.
Scherzer got a no-decision in an April 6 start against Atlanta while pitching for his former team (Washington Nationals) with 6 IP, 4 ER, 5 H, 0 BB and 9 K in Washington’s 6-5 home victory.
- vs. Braves on the current roster: 3.88 FIP with a .189 BA, .276 wOBA, .418 xSLG, 31.8 K% and 89.5 mph EV in 198 PA.

Braves at Dodgers odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:25 p.m. ET.

Money line: Braves +175 (bet $100 to win $175) | Dodgers -220 (bet $220 to win $100)
Against the spread/ATS: Braves +1.5 (-125) | Dodgers +1.5 (+102)
Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -105 | U: -120)

Prediction

Braves 5, Dodgers 4

Money line (ML)

Slight “LEAN” to the BRAVES (+175) for a tiny wager only because there’s more value in Atlanta’s run line.

That said, this is a “contrarian play” against a market that’s backing L.A. at nearly a 90% clip (according to Pregame.com), the Braves hit righties better than the Dodgers hit lefties, and Scherzer has struggled in recent seasons vs. the Braves.

For instance, Atlanta’s lineup ranks 11th or better in wRC+, wOBA, BB/K and hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching while L.A.’s lineup ranks 14th or worse against left-handed pitching in wOBA, wRC+ and BB/K.

On top of that, Scherzer is just 1-3 in his last five starts vs. the Braves with a 6.84 ERA (26 1/3 IP, 20 ER) and has allowed 7 home runs in those outings.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Definitely BET the BRAVES +1.5 (-120) heavier than, or instead of, their money line since Atlanta is 20-9 ATS as a road underdog, L.A. is 32-36 ATS as a home favorite, and Scherzer’s teams are 2-7 ATS this season with a minus 51.3% return on investment as a home favorite.

Over/Under (O/U)

PASS with a slight “lean” to the Over 7.5 (-105) because I think Atlanta’s lineup can get to Scherzer and the Braves are 11-10 O/U when Fried gets the start. However, there’s obviously not a lot to this handicap, and we will just stick with Atlanta’s money line and run line.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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Atlanta Braves at Los Angeles Dodgers odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Monday’s Atlanta Braves at Los Angeles Dodgers odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Atlanta Braves (70-59) stop by Dodger Stadium Monday to start a three-game set with the Los Angeles Dodgers (82-49) at 10:00 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Braves vs. Dodgers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Braves lead 2-1.

LHP Drew Smyly makes his 23rd start for the Braves. Smyly is 9-3 with a 4.54 ERA (111 IP, 56 ER), 1.36 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 8.4 K/9 this year.

Last outing: Win, 5-4, with 5 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 0 BB and 8 K Aug. 21 at the Baltimore Orioles.
2021 road splits: 6-2 with a 4.59 ERA (68 2/3 IP, 35 ER), 1.50 WHIP and 2.5 K/BB in 14 starts.
vs. Dodgers on the current roster: 4.39 FIP with a .226 batting average (BA), .316 wOBA, .475 expected slugging percentage, 23.6 K% and 91.0 mph exit velocity (EV) in 72 plate appearances (PA).

LHP Julio Urias is L.A.’s projected starter. Urias is 14-3 with a 3.17 ERA (144 2/3 IP, 51 ER), 1.05 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 9.5 K/9 in 25 starts.

Last outing: Win, 5-2, with 5 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 2 BB and 4 K at the San Diego Padres Tuesday.
Urias beat the Braves in Atlanta June 4 with a stat line of 5 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 2 BB and 5 K in L.A.’s 9-5 victory.
vs. Braves on the current roster: 4.60 FIP with a .167 BA, .241 wOBA, .473 xSLG, 16.7 K% and 84.4 mph EV in 42 PA.

Braves at Dodgers odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:45 p.m. ET.

Money line: Braves +190 (bet $100 to win $190) | Dodgers -240 (bet $240 to win $100)
Against the spread/ATS: Braves +1.5 (-112) | Dodgers +1.5 (-108)
Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -122 | U: -102)

Prediction

Braves 7, Dodgers 5

Money line (ML)

Slight “LEAN” to the BRAVES (+190) for a tiny wager, if at all, because I like Atlanta’s run line, and there’s just too much value on the money line given how well the Braves have played recently.

For instance, Atlanta has the same record over the past 30 games as L.A. (21-9 overall), and this has been a profitable spot for the Braves this season. Atlanta is 4-3 outright with a plus-26.1% return on investment (ROI) as an underdog when Smyly gets the start.

Furthermore, the Braves are more reliable against left-handed pitching than the Dodgers as Atlanta’s lineup ranks higher in wOBA, BB/K and soft-contact rate.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

“LEAN” to the BRAVES +1.5 (-112) heavier than, or instead of, their money line because Atlanta is 19-8 ATS as a road underdog while L.A. is 31-35 ATS as a home favorite despite being 43-23 outright.

Also, there’s a split in the betting market with the presumed “sharp” money riding with the Braves +1.5 (-122) and the public backing the Dodgers -1.5 (-108), according to Pregame.com.

Close to two-thirds of the cash is on Atlanta’s run line whereas more than 60% of the action is on L.A. Typically, it’s wiser in sports betting to follow the money especially when it’s flowing in the opposite direction as the crowd. Plus it’s rare to see people fading the Dodgers so I’m weighing the betting splits a little heavier in this sport.

Over/Under (O/U)

The same “pros vs. joes” scenario is happening in the total’s market for the Braves-Dodgers with more money being on the Over but more bets are placed on the Under (according to Pregame.com).

In addition, the Braves are 7-0 O/U in Smyly’s starts as a road underdog, and these teams have a combined 30-15 O/U record when both starters take the mound.

GIMME the OVER 8.5 (-122) for 1 unit as my favorite bet in Braves-Dodgers.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Thursday’s Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Los Angeles Dodgers (80-47) and San Diego Padres (68-60) wrap up their three-game set at Petco Park with the series finale’s first pitch scheduled for 9:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Dodgers vs. Padres odds with MLB picks and predictions.

L.A. beat San Diego 5-3 in 16 innings Wednesday for what was the longest MLB game since 2019.

The Dodgers are going for the series sweep and have won 11 of their last 12 games while the Padres are just 2-8 over their last 10 games.

Season series: Padres lead 7-5.

RHP Max Scherzer gets the start for the Dodgers. He is 11-4 with a 2.65 ERA (132 1/3 IP, 39 ER), 0.91 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 12.1 K/9 through 23 starts.

Last outing: Win, 4-3, with 5 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 1 BB and 8 K Saturday against the New York Mets.
Scherzer has two no-decisions against San Diego this season with a 9.28 ERA (10 2/3 IP, 11 ER), 9 H, 4 BB and 15 K in two starts.
- vs. Padres on the current roster (177 PA): 3.98 FIP with a .239 batting average (BA), .328 wOBA, .463 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 33.3 K% and 90.9 mph exit velocity (EV).

RHP Yu Darvish is San Diego’s projected starter. He is 7-7 with a 3.70 ERA (131 1/3 IP, 54 ER), 1.03 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 10.8 K/9 through 23 starts.

Last outing: Loss, 12-3, 2 2/3 IP, 5 ER, 6 H, 1 BB and 4 K at the Arizona Diamondbacks Aug. 12.
Darvish is 2-1 with a 1.35 ERA (20 IP, 3 ER), 0.65 WHIP and 4.8 K/BB rate in three starts against L.A. this year.
- vs. Dodgers on the current roster (118 PA): 3.17 FIP with a .133 BA, .215 wOBA, .226 xSLG, 36.4 K% and 85.4 mph EV.

Dodgers at Padres odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 3:30 p.m. ET.

Money line: Dodgers -145 (bet $145 to win $100) | Padres +120 (bet $100 to win $120)
Against the spread/ATS: Dodgers -1.5 (+122) | Padres +1.5 (-155)
Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)

Prediction

Dodgers 6, Padres 3

Money line (ML)

BET the DODGERS (-145) for 1 unit because backing Scherzer as a road favorite in recent seasons has been very profitable and Scherzer has been far better than Darvish over the past couple of months.

Scherzer’s teams are 13-3 overall when they are -135 or greater money line favorites on the road with a plus-25.3% return on investment since the beginning of 2019.

Furthermore, Scherzer has been awesome since joining L.A. and Darvish has really struggled since the “spider tack” memo went into effect.

With the Dodgers, Scherzer is 3-0 with a 2.11 ERA (21 1/3 IP, 5 ER), 0.98 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 13.1 K/9 over four starts. Since June 21 when the pitching substances policy became official, Darvish is 1-5 with a 5.70 ERA (47 1/3 IP, 30 ER), 46 H, 9 BB, 61 K and 12 home runs allowed in nine starts.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS because Darvish has pitched very well against the Dodgers this season and his only win in his last nine starts was against L.A. June 21.

Plus, this series has a playoff-like intensity to it so I don’t think the Dodgers -1.5 (+122) is a fat enough payout considering these factors.

Over/Under (O/U)

Slight “LEAN” to the OVER 7.5 (-115) for a small wager as a “contrarian play” against the majority of the market that is backing the Under because of the big-name starters on the mound.

It makes sense, however, both pitching staffs have to be weathered after Wednesday’s 16-inning affair and each lineup is due for a slump buster as neither club scored more than 5 runs in any of its last six games.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Wednesday’s Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The San Diego Padres (68-59) host the Los Angeles Dodgers (79-47) Wednesday for the second game of their three-game series at Petco Park. First pitch is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. ET Let’s analyze the lines around the Dodgers vs. Padres odds with MLB picks and predictions.

L.A. won the first game of the series 5-2 thanks to a gutty performance by the Dodgers’ pitching staff that walked 6 batters but allowed just 3 hits and struck out 9.

Season series: Padres lead 7-4.

RHP Walker Buehler is on the hill for the Dodgers. Buehler is 13-2 with a 2.11 ERA (162 1/3 IP, 38 ER), 0.93 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 in 25 starts.

Last outing: Win, 3-2, with 7 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 0 BB and 8 K vs. the New York Mets Friday.
Buehler has taken two no-decisions against San Diego this season with a 2.77 ERA (13 IP, 4 ER), 11 H, 1 BB and 13 K in two starts.
vs. Padres on the current roster (121 PA): 4.37 FIP with a .196 batting average (BA), .266 wOBA, .504 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 26.4 K% and 90.8 mph exit velocity (EV).

LHP Blake Snell is San Diego’s projected starter. Snell is 6-5 with a 4.82 ERA (106 1/3 IP, 57 ER), 1.52 WHIP, 5.5 BB/9 and 11.8 K/9 in 23 starts.

Last outing: Loss, 4-3, with 5 IP, 3 ER, 2 H, 2 BB and 9 K Friday vs. the Philadelphia Phillies.
Snell is 1-0 against L.A. this year with a 2.35 ERA (15 1/3 IP, 4 ER), 13 H, 7 BB and 19 K in three starts.
vs. Dodgers on the current roster (95 PA): 2.92 FIP with a .207 BA, .280 wOBA, .430 xSLG, 35.8 K% and 90.0 mph EV.

Dodgers at Padres odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2:27 p.m. ET.

Money line: Dodgers -155 (bet $155 to win $100) | Padres +125 (bet $100 to win $125)
Against the spread/ATS: Dodgers -1.5 (+111) | Padres +1.5 (-140)
Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -125 | U: +100)

Prediction

Dodgers 4, Padres 2

Money line (ML)

TAKE the DODGERS (-155) for 1 unit because they have a significant edge in both starting pitching and hitting and even L.A.’s bullpen has been lights out following the All-Star break.

Snell has pitched well against the Dodgers this year but Buehler is the odds on favorite to win the NL Cy Young and can start to lock that award down as fall nears.

L.A. is 8-2 on the road when Buehler starts with a plus-26.9% return on investment and an average money line of -182. So I’d argue that we are getting a good deal on the DODGERS (-155).

Also, there’s been sharp line movement towards L.A. as the Dodgers opened as -130 money line favorite but have been steamed up to the current number by both the pros and joes.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS because Snell has pitched well against L.A. this season, these teams have already played on four one-run games this year and the Dodgers are just 30-31 ATS as a road favorite.

Moreover, the Dodgers -1.5 (+111) isn’t a big enough payout considering the spot.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the UNDER 7.5 (+100) for a half unit since the Padres are 2-8 O/U at home when Snell starts, 1-5 O/U as a home underdog and San Diego’s Petco Park has the seventh-lowest runs scored by park factor. I am only “leaning” to the Under because I much prefer the L.A. money line.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Tuesday’s Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Los Angeles Dodgers (78-47) start a three-game series against the NL West rival San Diego Padres (68-58) at Petco Park. First pitch is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. ET Let’s analyze the lines around the Dodgers vs. Padres odds with MLB picks and predictions.

L.A.’s 7-2 loss to the New York Mets Sunday snapped a nine-game winning streak. The Dodgers have won 16 of their past 20 games and are 2.5 games back of the first-place San Francisco Giants in the NL West.

San Diego has lost eight of the last 10 games and trails the Cincinnati Reds by 1 game for the second NL Wild Card berth.

Season series: Padres lead 7-3.

LHP Julio Urias is L.A.’s projected starter. Urias is 13-3 with a 3.29 ERA (139 2/3 IP, 51 ER), 1.07 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 in 24 starts.

Last outing: No-decision with 5 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 2 BB and 5 K in 6-5 victory at the New York Mets Aug. 13.
Urias lost at San Diego 6-2 June 21 with 4 IP, 6 ER, 6 H, 4 BB and 5 K.
- 2021 road splits: 10-2 with a 2.88 ERA (81 1/3 IP, 26 ER), 0.97 WHIP and 5.5 K/BB in 14 starts.

Padres RHP Pierce Johnson will make his first career start. Johnson is 3-2 with a 2.49 ERA (43 1/3 IP, 12 ER), 1.18 WHIP, 4.4 BB/9 and 12.5 K/9 in 48 relief appearances.

2021 August splits: 1-0 with a 1.04 ERA (8 2/3 IP, 1 ER), 3 H, 5 BB and 13 K in nine outings.
2021 home splits: 3-0 with a 1.71 ERA (21 IP, 4 ER), 0.95 WHIP and 2.8 K/BB rate in 23 appearances.
2021 vs. Dodgers: 0-1 with a 20.25 ERA (1 1/3 IP, 3 ER), 4 H, 1 BB and 2 K in three outings.

Dodgers at Padres odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 3:46 p.m. ET.

Money line: Dodgers -145 (bet $145 to win $100) | Padres +120 (bet $100 to win $120)
Against the spread/ATS: Dodgers -1.5 (+110) | Padres +1.5 (-135)
Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -125 | U: +100)

Prediction

Padres 5, Dodgers 2

Money line (ML)

PASS with a slight “lean” to the Padres (+120) since I see value in San Diego’s run line in this spot and the presumed “sharp” money is on the Padres.

Roughly two-thirds of the cash wagered is on San Diego, while 80% of the action is on L.A. (according to Pregame.com), Typically, it’s wiser to follow the money instead of the public in sports gambling.

What’s holding me back from sprinkling on San Diego’s money line, despite the Padres being 7-3 vs. the Dodgers this year, is these teams are trending in opposite directions with L.A. looking like the defending champs.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

BET the PADRES +1.5 (-135) for 1 unit because San Diego is 14-7 ATS as an underdog and we have significant “reverse line movement.”

A vast majority of the bets placed are on L.A.’s run line, but oddsmakers have steamed the Dodgers’ run line down from -125 on the opener to the current price.

With San Diego’s back against the wall, I’m expecting an outright victory, but the PADRES +1.5 (-135) is the best bet in this contest.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the UNDER 8.5 (+100) for a half unit because the Padres are 1-5 O/U as home underdogs with an average score of 4.5-2.3 and we have an obvious line freeze in the betting market.

Almost 90% of the cash wagered is on the Over, but the total hasn’t budged from the 8.5-run opener (according to Pregame.com).

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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