The Cincinnati Bengals (7-4) host the Los Angeles Chargers (6-5) Sunday for their Week 13 showdown at Paul Brown Stadium. The kickoff is scheduled for 1 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Chargers vs. Bengals odds and lines, and make our best NFL picks, predictions and bets.
L.A. has alternated between winning and losing over its past five games (1-4 ATS) with the latest being a 28-13 loss to the Denver Broncos as 2.5-point road favorites in Week 12. The Chargers are 5-6 ATS, 4-7 O/U and in playoff position at seventh in the AFC standings.
Cincy has won and covered in back-to-back games over the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 11 and the Pittsburgh Steelers this past Sunday. The Bengals are 6-5 ATS, 5-6 O/U and would be the first AFC Wild Card seed if the playoffs started today.
The Chargers beat the Bengals 16-13 as 2.5-point road favorites in Week 1 last season in what was the only game L.A. QB Justin Herbert didn’t start for the Chargers.
Also see: Bet Slippin’ Podcast: NFL Week 13 picks and predictions
Chargers at Bengals odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 8:10 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Chargers +130 (bet $100 to win $130) | Bengals -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Chargers +3.5 (-130) | Bengals -3.5 (+105)
- Over/Under (O/U): 49.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Chargers at Bengals key injuries
Chargers
- LG Matt Feiler (ankle) questionable
- DT Linval Joseph (health and safety protocols) questionable
- CB Asante Samuel Jr. (concussion) questionable
Bengals
- C Trey Hopkins (knee) questionable
- RT Riley Reiff (ankle) questionable
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Chargers at Bengals odds, lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Bengals 29, Chargers 20
Money line
BET the BENGALS (-160) because the Chargers (+130) cannot play complementary football. I go into further detail about this in the NFL Week 13 Bet Slippin’ Podcast featuring myself and Nathan Beighle.
However, Cincy is eighth in offensive success rate and fifth in defensive success rate. Whereas L.A. is 10th in offensive success rate and 30th in defensive success rate.
In fact, the Chargers have the worst rushing defense across several metrics and Bengals QB Joe Burrow is going to dice up L.A.’s defense is RB Joe Mixon has a good rushing game.
Furthermore, I could see both offenses moving the ball but Cincy is a way better red zone team.
For instance, the Bengals are second in red zone offensive success rate and top-10 in red zone success rate vs. the rush and pass (according to Warren Sharp). On the other hand, the Chargers are just 23rd in red zone offensive success rate and 19th or worse in red zone success rate vs. the run and pass.
Even though I project Cincy to win this game handily, I’d rather just lay it with BENGALS (-160) instead of fussing with the points.
Against the spread
“LEAN” to the BENGALS -3.5 (+100) because of my aforementioned logic but we are getting the worst of the number so I’d prefer Cincy’s money line.
This game opened with the Bengals laying 2.5 points but Cincy’s spread has been steamed up past the key number of 3.
Again, the BENGALS -3.5 (+100) should cash but I’m just confident enough in Cincy outright that I’d spend more for the money line.
Over/Under
Slight “LEAN” to the UNDER 49.5 (-105) because a vast majority of the market is betting the Over and I think this game gets played at Cincy’s pace since the Bengals should dominate the line of scrimmage.
In addition, Cincy play at the third-slowest neutral situation pace (second per snap) and second-slowest total pace. Also, L.A.’s offense can be one-dimensional. The Chargers gain the fewest yards per game in the NFL.
That said, my favorite wager in this game is Cincy’s money line.
Also see: All Week 13 odds and lines
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