Tony Ferguson and Justin Gaethje square off for the lightweight strap in the co-main event at UFC 249 at the VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena in Jacksonville, Fla. The card kicks off Saturday at 6 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+, with the main card on pay-per-view.
The highly anticipated bout between Ferguson (26-3-0) and Khabib Nurmagomedov has been scrapped yet again, this time due to the COVID-19 pandemic, as Khabib returned home to Russia and is not willing to risk fighting. Gaethje (21-2-0) stepped in on short notice as opponent previously, but has not gotten an extra month to prepare after the first card in England was wiped out and this event was pushed back.
Ferguson last fought at UFC 238 on June 8, 2019, and he is 5-0 across his past five bouts, including four wins as a favorite. In addition, he has won two fights either by corner or doctor stoppage, while four of the past five outings have finished inside the distance. In other words, he doesn’t like to leave his fate in the hands of the judges. Five of his past 10 outings have resulted in a submission, too, which isn’t surprising given his 42.86 takedown-accuracy percentage, 0.56 takedown average and 1.40 submission average. While he goes to the mat, he can throw hands, too, and he has a respectable 5.81 significant strikes landed per minute with a 45.33 significant strike-accuracy percentage. He also enjoys a 6.5-inch reach advantage over Gaethje.
Gaethje has no interest in going to the canvas. In fact, he has zeroes across the board in the takedown and submission statistics. He does rain down blows early and often with his fists, posting a heavy 8.57 significant strikes landed per minute, while posting a solid 55.59 significant strike-accuracy percentage. He started just 1-2 in his UFC career, but found his sea legs and has rattled off three straight victories since. All three of those wins came in the first round, so Ferguson will have to be very mindful of the big blow early. In 23 professional bouts, Gaethje has had just two fights go the distance, with wins by decision in each.
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Tony Ferguson vs. Justin Gaethje betting odds
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday, May 7 at 6:40 p.m. ET.
Gaethje (+145) is a dangerous opponent, but FERGUSON (-176) is worth a roll of the dice on the 2-way line. You’ll definitely want to back that up with other action, though, just in case Gaethje is able to surprise with a big, early blow.
Taking the total number of rounds UNDER 2.5 (-154) is the way to go, while avoiding the rather risky “will the fight go the full 5 rounds” (No, -500) prop. As mentioned, you can avoid the submission as a method of victory, but taking both fighters on the KO/TKO or DQ line isn’t a bad idea. Ferguson (+260) and Gaethje (+170) can both end the night of the opponent quickly, and if there is a knockout by either fighter, you win, even if that’s all you bet. Frankly, that’s too safe for me, and I like to take one fighter or the other, but you can come out ahead that way.
A better way to go might be taking Ferguson to win in a certain round. A Ferguson victory in Round 1 (+350), Round 2 (+520), Round 3 (+750), Round 4 (+1000) and Round 5 (+1400) can all be bet. I think the best bet here is a FERGUSON WIN IN ROUND 2 (+520), if you’re going to try and pinpoint it. Therefore, you’ll also want the FERGUSON BY KO/TKO or DQ (+260) prop attached.
New to sports betting? A $10 bet on Ferguson (-176) on the 2-way line nets a profit of $5.68. A $10 bet on Ferguson to win by KO/TKO or DQ (+260) nets a profit of $26, while betting $10 on Under 2.5 (-154) returns a profit of $6.49. The big hit would be a $10 bet on Ferguson winning in Round 2 as it would profit $52.
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