The Tampa Bay Lightning (36-15-5) visit the Pittsburgh Penguins (34-15-5) in a potential Eastern Conference Final preview. Puck drop at PPG Paints Arena is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET Tuesday. We analyze the Lightning-Penguins sports betting odds and lines, while providing NHL betting tips and picks around this matchup.
Lightning at Penguins: Projected starting goalies
Andrei Vasilevskiy vs. Tristan Jarry
Vasilevskiy had the night off Monday, as backup Curtis McElhinney stopped 31 of 32 shots in a 2-1 win over the Columbus Blue Jackets. The reigning Vezina Trophy winner is 29-9-3 with a .918 save percentage and 2.48 goals against average for the season.
Jarry is 3-2-0 across his last five starts. He last stopped 33 of 35 shots in a win over the Florida Panthers Saturday. He is 18-8-1 with a .929 SV% and 2.18 GAA for the season.
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Lightning at Penguins: Odds, picks and betting tips
Odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list.
Odds last updated at 11:10 a.m. ET.
Prediction
Penguins 3, Lightning 2
Moneyline (ML)
Lightning C Steven Stamkos missed Monday’s game due to a lower-body injury and will be questionable for the second half of the back-to-back. The PENGUINS (-115) will be the play as the hosts of a undermanned Lightning side (-106). They’ve been off since beating the Panthers 3-2 Saturday.
Tampa Bay earned a 4-2 home win last Thursday to take a 2-0 lead in the head-to-head season series following a 3-2 win in Tampa Oct. 23. The absence of Stamkos looms large and Pittsburgh has the edge with a 19-5-3 home record. The Lightning’s seven-game win streak entering the day suppresses the money line odds for the road dogs, as they should be offering plus-money on the second half of a back-to-back.
Puck Line/Against the Spread (ATS)
We’ll AVOID the puck line with no value on either side. The Penguins (-1.5, +225) are just 25-29 against the spread overall and 11-16 at home, while the Lightning (+1.5, -278) are 24-32 ATS overall and 12-17 on the road. This should be expected to be a one-goal game, as was the case in three of the Penguins’ last four games.
We may even get some overtime, and that’s a prop bet worth a small wager at +280 for Yes.
Over/Under (O/U)
Take the UNDER 5.5 (+125) as the more profitable side of the line. The first two meetings of the year played to either side of Tuesday’s number. While Vasilevskiy was in net for both games, Jarry started the lower-scoring game for the Penguins and Matt Murray was in net for the 4-2 loss last week.
Esten’s NHL betting record: 219-206
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