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The Liberty Flames (7-0, 5-0 CUSA) and Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (4-3, 2-1) meet Tuesday at Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium in Bowling Green, Ky. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPNU). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Liberty vs. Western Kentucky odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.
The Flames have won all 7 games so far, including an impressive 5-0 straight up (SU) and 3-2 against the spread (ATS) mark inside Conference USA. Liberty has done its best work on the road, going 3-0 SU/ATS, including a 31-13 win at 7-point favorites at Jacksonville State in the most recent road game Oct. 10. The Under is 3-1 in the past 4 games for Liberty.
The Hilltoppers are coming off a 20-17 loss at Jax State last Tuesday, losing outright as a 7.5-point favorite as the Under (60.5) connected. WKU returns home for the 1st time since a 31-10 win over Middle Tennessee on Sept. 28, cashing as a 6.5-point favorite. The ‘Toppers are 2-0 SU/ATS in 2 home games against FBS opponents this season.
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Liberty at Western Kentucky odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 5:42 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Liberty -210 (bet $210 to win $100) | Western Kentucky +170 (bet $100 to win $170)
- Against the spread (ATS): Liberty -5 (-110) | Western Kentucky +5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 61.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Liberty at Western Kentucky picks and predictions
Prediction
Liberty 45, Western Kentucky 24
Moneyline
Liberty (-210) will set you back more than 2 times your potential return, and that’s way too much risk for not nearly enough reward.
While the Flames have won all 3 of the previous meetings in this series, including 30-24 on Sept. 19, 2020 in Bowling Green, it’s still just a little too expensive for my liking.
PASS.
Against the spread
LIBERTY -5 (-110) is a strong play on the road. While the Flames have, well, flamed out, in the past 3 games, going 1-2 ATS, it is still 5-2 ATS overall. And the Flames offense has been on point, going for 487.9 total yards per game, with 274.6 rushing yards per contest. That number makes the Flames No. 2 in the country on ground. In addition, Liberty hoists up 36.3 PPG, ranking No. 15 overall.
Conversely, Western Kentucky +5 (-110) allows 203.7 rushing yards per game, which ranks 129th in the country. That’s a bad recipe for success against a Flames team that undoubtedly will try to run the ball down the throats of the ‘Toppers.
Over/Under
OVER 61.5 (-110) is a pretty big number, but the way Liberty piles up points, and the way Western Kentucky allows rushing yardage, the Flames could take care of a good chunk of the Over on their own.
While Western Kentucky has been much better defensively against the likes of Jacksonville State and Middle Tennessee in the past 3 games, it hasn’t faced a powerful offense like Liberty since the Ohio State loss.
Liberty has scored 31 or more points in 6 of 7 games this season, and it should get well into the 40’s in this one, needing little help from WKU to get the Over across the finish line.
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