The New York Liberty (18-6) play the 1st of 2 road games against the Los Angeles Sparks (9-15) on Sunday afternoon at Crypto.com Arena. Tip-off is scheduled for 4 p.m. ET (ESPN). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Liberty vs. Sparks odds, and make our expert WNBA picks and predictions.
The Liberty suffered an 88-83 home loss to the Minnesota Lynx Friday, snapping a 4-game winning streak. It is now just 2-7 against the spread (ATS) in the last 9 games, while the Over has connected in 6 of the previous 7 outings.
New York has scored 77 or more points in 23 straight games since managing a season-low 64 points in the season opener May 19 in Washington. The Liberty rank 1st in the WNBA in 3-pointer percentage (37.7%) and free-throw percentage (83.6%), according to covers.com. It is also last in the league in 3-pointer percentage defense (36.0%), while ranking 7th in points allowed (82.7 PPG).
F Breanna Stewart made history in Thursday’s 95-84 win over the Atlanta Dream, as she became the first WNBA player to post 25 points, 5 rebounds and 5 assists in a single half. She ended up with 33 points, 12 rebounds, 5 assists and a blocked shot.
The Sparks posted back-to-back wins against the Indiana Fever in a 2-game home series, and the cover on Thursday was the 1st for Los Angeles since June 25 after an 0-8-1 ATS skid.
The home team has won each of the past 3 meetings, while the road team is 4-2 ATS in the previous 6 in the series. The Over holds a 6-3 edge in the past 9 head-to-head encounters. The teams will play again on Tuesday.
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Liberty at Sparks odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:44 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Liberty -550 (bet $550 to win $100) | Sparks +400 (bet $100 to win $400)
- Against the spread (ATS): Liberty -9.5 (-105) | Sparks +9.5 (-115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 167.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Liberty at Sparks picks and predictions
Prediction
Liberty 87, Sparks 82
Moneyline
The Liberty (-550) are a bit on the expensive side, especially for the road team. You cannot risk 5 1/2 times your potential return, as betting huge favorites like that will eventually come back to bite you in the long run.
AVOID.
Against the spread
The SPARKS +9.5 (-115) catching nearly double digits at home is a bit much.
Neither of these teams has really lit it up against the number. The Liberty -9.5 (-105) are just 2-7 ATS in the last 9 games, while going 0-5 ATS in the past 5 against Western Conference foes. The Sparks are 1-8-1 ATS in the last 10 games, while going 4-10 ATS in the past 14 against winning teams.
The Sparks have covered 5 of the last 7 meetings in this series, and it should be able to keep this game within single digits Sunday.
Over/Under
OVER 167.5 (-105) is the lean, as the Liberty are generally good for 80 or more points.
The Over has hit in 6 of the last 7 games for New York, while going 6-1 in the last 7 games on the road, too.
The trends are mostly geared to the Under for the Sparks, with the total going low in 7 of the last 10 games at home, while cashing at a 10-3 clip in the last 13 games against winning teams, so be careful.
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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
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