In a welterweight bout on Saturday’s main card, Leon Edwards and Nate Diaz meet at UFC 263 at Gila River Arena in Glendale, Ariz. Below, we analyze the UFC 263 Edwards vs. Diaz odds and lines, with picks and predictions.
The early prelims kick off at 6 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+, with the prelims starting at 8 p.m. ET, and the main card beginning at 10 p.m. ET on pay-per-view.
UFC 263 Edwards vs. Diaz: Odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:49 a.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Edwards -550 (bet $550 to win $100) | Diaz +400 (bet $100 to win $400)
- Over/Under: 3.5 rounds (Over -120 | Under +100)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +120 | No -145)
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UFC 263 Edwards vs. Diaz: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Records: Edwards 18-3-0 | Diaz 21-12-0
Fight result (2-way line or money line)
Edwards (-550) was involved in a no contest last time out against Belal Muhammad, accidentally poking his opponent in the right eye while causing severe damage.
The bout was waved off, which was a huge disappointment. The No. 4 fighter in the division had a chance to scoot up the rankings and toward a title shot if he had picked up a win.
As such, he is heavily favored to beat the veteran Diaz, and he’ll do just that. Still, you cannot risk five and a half times your potential return, so let’s get specific.
Edwards had gone the distance in five of his previous six bouts prior to the Muhammad no contests, including two five-round decisions.
Play EDWARDS ON POINTS (+130) in the round betting section for the best bet.
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Over/Under (O/U)
As mentioned above, Edwards went the distance in five of his six fights prior to the Muhammad fight. Four of Diaz’s past six fights also ended up going the distance, including a unanimous-decision win over Anthony Pettis at UFC 241.
Diaz hasn’t fought since UFC 244, as he needed 25 stitches to close a severe gash above and below his eye after a TKO – doctor’s stoppage against Jorge Masvidal on Nov. 2, 2019. That’s the last time we saw Diaz.
Diaz will likely have a bit of a feeling-out process, as he tries to get his legs under him. There could be a rust factor, but he is a veteran who understands how to adjust. He’ll give Edwards all he can handle before falling by decision.
As such, YES (+120): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? is a value play, and OVER 4.5 ROUNDS (+110) isn’t a bad play if you want a little wiggle room.
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