Kevin Lee and Charles Oliveira square off in a catchweight bout on the main card at UFC on ESPN+ 28 — also called UFC Fight Night 170 — at the Ginasio Nilson Nelson in Brasilia. The card gets gets underway in Brazil’s capital Saturday at 6 p.m. ET.
Lee (18-5-0) will venture into hostile territory (though less hostile than originally thought; see below for more) as the moderate favorite, but the home country advantage of his counterpart will be mitigated by the fact the arena will be empty due to the unfortunate COVID-19 situation.
Also of note, the fight was originally scheduled to be a lightweight bout, but Lee missed the 156-pound limit by 2.8 pounds at weigh-in. According to multiple reports, Oliveira accepted a catchweight bout, but it is not yet known what portion of Lee’s purse Oliveira will receive.
As for other measurables, Lee enters this bout one inch shorter than his opponent, but he also holds a three-inch reach advantage. In addition, Lee has registered 3.90 significant strikes landed per minute to 3.21 for Oliveira. Their takedown accuracy is basically a wash, with Oliveira holding the slight advantage at 42.86 to 42.71 percent, virtually even. The strategy for Lee, most likely, will be able to keep this as a toe-to-toe bout rather than go to the mat, as Oliveira is the far superior fighter on the ground.
Oliveira (28-8-0) also employs an orthodox stance like Lee. While the striking and takedown stats are similar, Oliveira holds a 2.77-0.87 advantage in submission average, so he’ll likely be looking to take this to the canvas early and often. Oliveira isn’t a one-trick pony, however, as while four of his past six wins have come via submission, his past two were KO/TKO decisions against Jared Gordon and Nik Lentz, both in 2019. He is also well rested, having last fought Nov. 16, 2019 against Gordon on the Blachowicz-Jacare card.
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 2:30 a.m. ET.
Place a sports bet on this mixed martial arts action or other events at BetMGM.
Kevin Lee vs. Charles Oliveira betting odds
Per BetMGM, Lee (-152) is the favorite over Oliveira (+125), who will no longer be able to tap into that home crowd energy due to the fans being turned away due to the coronavirus pandemic. That’s a distinct advantage for Lee, a.k.a. “The Motown Phenom.”
Lee is 2-3 across his past five bouts, including a submission loss to Rafael Dos Anjos in the fourth round on May 18, 2019. He was also submitted by Tony Ferguson in a title bout on Oct. 7, 2017. That’s ominous for Lee, as Oliveira’s strength is also on the ground.
Backing OLIVEIRA ON THE 2-WAY LINE (+125) is a good start for your wagers, while OLIVEIRA BY SUBMISSION (+700), as a method of victory, might also be worth a small-unit bet. The total number of rounds — over/under — might also be in play, and the consensus likes UNDER 2.5 (-167), rather than a long, drawn out five-round bout.
New to sports betting? A $10 wager on Oliveira (+125) to nets a profit of $12.50. A $10 wager on Oliveira (+700) to win by submission secures a profit of $70.
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If you want some action on this MMA bout, place your wagers at BetMGM now. For more sports betting picks and analysis, visit SportsbookWire.com.
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