AC Milan (16 wins, 7 losses, 10 draws) welcomes Lazio (19-7-7) to San Siro Saturday. Kickoff is set for 9 a.m. ET. Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the AC Milan vs. Lazio odds, and make our best soccer bets, picks and predictions.
AC Milan is 1 of the 4 teams left in the UEFA Champions League and sits 6th in Serie A competition. It averages 1.61 goals per game while it allows 1.18. It is 10-2-4 at home this season and is led by F Rafael Leao, who has 12 goals in 31 matches. Milan is 2-0-4 over its last 6 matches.
Lazio sits 2nd in the league and is 9-3-4 on the road this season. It is averaging 1.58 goals per game while allowing just .73. Lazio has allowed the 2nd-fewest goals in Serie A play. It is led in the attack by F Ciro Immobile, who has 10 goals in 26 matches. Lazio has won 5 of its last 7 matches.
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AC Milan vs. Lazio odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 6:55 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline: AC Milan +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Lazio +290 (bet $290 to win $100) | Draw +230
- Over/Under: 2.5 (O: +120 | U: -165)
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AC Milan vs. Lazio picks and predictions
Prediction
AC Milan 1, Lazio 1
Moneyline (ML)
SPRINKLE DRAW (+230).
With how Milan has been playing as of late and the location of this game, the Draw (+230) makes the most sense.
Milan has drawn 2 straight games and is 1-0-2 in its last 3 home games as well. It has been within .4 expected goals of its opponent in its last 3 games as well, so it has played to the level of its competition.
Lazio has won 5 of its last 7 but hasn’t played too well on the road this season and has had as many or fewer expected goals as its opponent in 2 of its last 3.
Ultimately, expect a close battle and, for a small unit, play the DRAW (+230).
Over/Under (O/U)
LEAN UNDER 2.5 (-165).
There’s really no other way to play this with how these teams are playing as of late. Milan has gone Under this total in 5 straight games and has scored more than 1 goal in just 1 of those battles. It hasn’t had more than 2 expected goals since April 2.
Lazio has gone Under in 3 of its last 14 games and has had 8 clean sheets in those matches. It has one of the best defenses in the league and has allowed 1 or fewer expected goals in 8 of its last 11 and in 3 of its last 4.
The defenses should dominant, and with that in mind, for a unit given the value, take the UNDER 2.5 (-165).
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