UFC on ESPN+ 33: Robbie Lawler vs. Neil Magny odds, picks and best bets

Previewing Saturday’s UFC on ESPN+ 33 fight between Robbie Lawler and Neil Magny, with MMA betting odds, picks, tips and bets.

UFC on ESPN+ 33 co-main event features Robbie Lawler and Neil Magny in a welterweight bout Saturday at the UFC’s APEX Facility in Las Vegas. The prelims kick off at 6 p.m. ET on ESPN+, followed by the main card set for 9 p.m. ET.

Lawler (28-14) has fallen on hard times, dropping three fights in a row since his last victory over Donald Cerrone July 29, 2017. “Ruthless” Robbie was once at the top of his division, and he successfully defended his title twice before a loss to Tyron Woodley July 30, 2016. Lawler has not been nearly the same fighter since, and it’s uncertain if he’ll be able to pull himself out of his current nosedive.

Magny (23-8) has won two straight unanimous decision fights, beating Li Jianliang March 7 and then Anthony Rocco Martin last time out on the UFC 250 card June 6. The “Haitian Sensation” is a rather impressive 14-4 across his past 18 fights since Feb. 1, 2014. Apparently back-to-back losses in 2013 really lit a fire under Magny as he hasn’t had two consecutive setbacks at the UFC level since, and has been a completely different fighter. Three of his past six fights have finished inside the distance, although two resulted in losses. He can be beaten via knockout and submission, which is something Lawler must try to find a way to do, because he isn’t likely to win on points.

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Robbie Lawler vs. Neil Magny betting odds

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 12:18 a.m. ET.

It’s actually hard to see Lawler (+200) fall this badly, as he was once one of the best fighters in all of UFC. Magny (-250) has been much more consistent lately, and is likely to win this fight, but you can’t risk this type of money with such a little return. Get more specific.

Four of Magny’s past five wins, and each of the past two bouts, have ended in unanimous decision. Target MAGNY BY DECISION (-121) on the 5-way line for method of victory.

I am not crazy about the round props here, as there is a lot of juice, but YES (-209): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? is the way to go.

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