Las Vegas Motor Speedway odds picks predictions best bets

The NASCAR Cup Series heads to Las Vegas Motor Speedway (LVMS) on Sunday for the 2023 Pennzoil 400. Green flag is scheduled to drop shortly after 3:30 p.m. ET (FOX). Below we analyze at Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the 2023 Pennzoil 400 odds, and make our NASCAR picks and predictions.

2023 Pennzoil 400: What you need to know

Penske Racing’s Joey Logano claimed the Busch Light Pole Award at LVMS with a lap time of 29.024 seconds and a best speed of 186.053 in qualifying on Saturday.
Logano won last October’s run at LVMS, his 3rd win at the track in the last 8 Cup starts. He leads all active drivers with an 8.5 Average-Finish Position (AFP) with 7 top-5 runs, and 12 top-10 finishes in 19 career Cup races.
Hendrick Motorsports driver William Byron was just on his heels with a 29.165-second time, joining Logano on the front row to start Sunday’s race. Byron has never won in Vegas, and he has just a single top-5 run and a 17.8 AFP in 10 Cup starts.
Las Vegas native Kyle Busch, who won at Auto Club Speedway last weekend, has a win, 11 top-5 runs and 311 laps led with a 10.8 AFP in 23 career Cup starts at his home track.
23XI Racing’s Bubba Wallace has a lone top-10 finish in 10 career Cup starts, posting a dismal 24.7 AFP with 2 DNFs.
Stewart-Haas Racing’s Ryan Preece has struggled mightily at Vegas, posting a 25.2 AFP in 6 career Cup starts, with a highest finish of 15th and 1 DNF.
Logano (3x), Brad Keselowski (3x), Kevin Harvick (2x) and Martin Truex Jr. (2x) are the only multiple winners at Vegas in the active field.
Hendrick’s Chase Elliott suffered a fractured tibia in a snowboarding accident in Colorado, and he is sidelined indefinitely after surgery. Josh Berry will step behind the wheel of the No. 9 Chevrolet for HMS.

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2023 Pennzoil 400 – Expert pick(s)

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 11:17 p.m. ET.

It’s hard not to like JOEY LOGANO (+550) based on his past history at the track. Yes, it’s a little hacky to bet the chalk, but the driver of the No. 22 Ford machine has won 3 times in the last 8 Cup starts at Las Vegas, and Team Penske just seems to perform above and beyond expectations on a routine basis at Vegas, which has been a desert oasis for the group.

If you don’t like Logano, the next best bet might be JGR’s DENNY HAMLIN (+1500), who is a much bigger value. Of course, he also comes with a little more risk. The No. 11 has been to Victory Lane once in 22 career Cup starts here, while leading 359 laps. He also has 2 DNFs with 11 top-10 finishes with 12.9 AFP.

2023 Pennzoil 400 prop pick

TOP-10 FINISH: KEVIN HARVICK (+125)

Happy didn’t pan out in California last weekend, but Harvick was still in the mix for most of the afternoon.

He is one of a handful of multi-winners at LVMS, and he heads into the race with a 13.7 AFP in 27 career Cup starts while leading the pack in 679 laps, tops among all drivers in the field. He has had 13 top-10 finishes, too. A win isn’t a likely outcome for the No. 4, but a top-10 finish should certainly be within his sights.

AND KEEP AN EYE ON JOSH BERRY

Berry steps behind the wheel of the No. 9 Chevrolet vacated by Elliott due to injury. It’s a giant spot for the young driver, and it remains to be seen if he can handle the pressures of stepping into the big time. Still, it’s worth a roll of the dice seeing that he will be in top-notch equipment, giving him a tremendous chance to be on a level playing field with the big boys. You can’t go to Vegas and not take a flier on a long-shot bet, right?

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2022 South Point 400: What you need to know

This is the 1st of 3 races in the Round of 8 in the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs; currently 8 drivers remain alive for the championship after Sunday

Joey Logano leads all active drivers with an 8.9 Average-Finish Position (AFP) in 18 career Cup starts at LVMS

Kevin Harvick, a 2-time winner in Vegas, leads all drivers with 679 laps led in his 26 career Cup starts at the track

Kyle Larson, eliminated from the playoffs last weekend, is 2nd to Logano with a 9.2 AFP in Las Vegas, with 1 win, 5 top-5 finishes and 9 top-10 runs in 12 career starts

Las Vegas native Kurt Busch has struggled at his hometown track, posting just 1 win and 3 top-5 finishes in 25 career Cup starts with a dismal 20.6 AFP

Kyle Busch, also a Vegas native, has fared better than his older brother at LVMS, winning 1 race, while posting 10 top-5 runs in 22 career Cup starts with an 11.2 AFP

TrackHouse Racing’s Ross Chastain, sitting 6 points above the cutoff line, has a terrible 23.6 AFP in 8 career Cup starts at LVMS

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2022 South Point 400 – Expert picks

JOEY LOGANO (+1000) is a value play, as he has performed well at this track, and doesn’t enter this race with as much pressure as some of the other playoff competitors. He is well above the cut line, and should position himself even better with a potential win to get him into NASCAR’s Final Four.

RYAN BLANEY (+700) has shorter odds than the better play above, and this is a track which suits him well, too. He is just below the cut line, so he has a little more pressure to perform. While the Ohio native has never won in Las Vegas, he has done well in the past, ranking 4th among all active drivers with an 11.1 AFP. Look for Blaney to be racing for checkers in the end.

2022 South Point 400 – Long shot

CHASE BRISCOE (+3000) is still technically alive for a championship, as he qualified for the Round of 8. However, he needs to catch fire — quickly.

Las Vegas hasn’t been one of his better tracks, but his team will do everything in its power to keep him alive. In 3 career Cup starts at LVMS, Briscoe has finished 14th, 21st and 35th with 1 DNF, which doesn’t exactly have potential bettors brimming with confidence. However, he has plenty of incentive to race hard, and try to get to the front, so he is worth a roll of the dice.

2022 South Point 400 prop picks

CHASE BRISCOE TOP-10 FINISH (+125)

Briscoe at plus-money for a top-10 finish still carries plenty of risk. Again, this hasn’t been one of his better tracks during his fledgling Cup career. However, he is still alive for a championship, and he needs a good run. Briscoe will either end up inside the top-10 with a positive run, or he will flame out and be done before the Round of 8 really even gets going.

FORD – MANUFACTURER WINNER (+200)

With Blaney and Logano as my 2 picks to win outright, let’s roll with Ford to get the job done at Las Vegas. For a chance to double up, it’s a no-brainer.

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