World championship eliminator matches, where a challenger has to beat the champ to get a shot at the champ’s title, aren’t cool. You know what is cool, though? Tournaments for a world championship opportunity, which is exactly what is kicking off this week with the AEW World Title Eliminator Tournament.
The format couldn’t be simpler. It’s eight men vying for a chance to take on the AEW World Champion — which could be current holder Jon Moxley or MJF by then —at Winter is Coming in December. The first round matches are this week, one on Dynamite and three on Rampage, with the semifinals following next week ahead of the final, which will be part of the Full Gear card on Saturday, Nov 19.
None of the eight competitors have held the AEW World Championship, though several have had previous title shots. There are some of the usual suspects but some refreshing new faces as well.
Let’s break down the bracket ahead of the first round and see where we land.
First round: Eddie Kingston vs. Ethan Page
Eddie Kingston has a history with Moxley as both friend and foe, and another championship opportunity for him would likely be received warmly by AEW fans. Yet it feels like Ethan Page, who always felt like he was taking a backseat to partner Scorpio Sky in Men of the Year, may finally have found his footing in The Firm.
Is AEW ready to push Page harder? Giving him a win here only really makes sense if the company is committed to at least having him in the final. It’s hard to say for sure but it certainly might be his time.
Prediction: Page advances
First round: Bandido vs. Rush
This is a nice showcase for both men, put particularly Bandido since he is going to be sticking around as an AEW regular. He is a fantastic talent who should only get more love from the fans as they are exposed to more of his work.
Rush is great too, but has been on TV a fair amount over the past few months. A win for him is logical if Kingston wins the other quarterfinal on this side of the bracket, but since we’re rolling with Page, we’ll go with the face here.
Prediction: Bandido advances
First round: Lance Archer vs. Ricky Starks
Though Lance Archer hasn’t consistently been on AEW TV for a while, the company always treats him like a big deal when he’s around. Thus, his inclusion in the tournament is fine even though he’s barely been on Dynamite or Rampage for months.
So he’s moving on for sure, right? Not so fast. AEW just had Ricky Starks cut a promo last week touting his entrance in the tourney and positioning him for bigger things. Like Page, Starks is a very talented performer who simply hasn’t been given the push to prove it. It would be disappointing if AEW went to the effort to highlight that just to have him lose in the first round, whereas a victory over Archer would be huge for Starks.
Prediction: Starks advances
First round: Brian Cage vs. Dante Martin
This feels like the clearest first round match of the four. Brian Cage has recently been back on TV quite a bit, albeit on the ROH side as part of The Embassy. Dante Martin is the perennial “look great in a losing effort” guy and that would apply here once again.
The x-factor would be if Cage’s Embassy beef with Samoa Joe and Wardlow spills over into this bout, which could definitely happen. Otherwise, Cage should move forward.
Prediction: Cage advances
Semifinals
Page vs. Bandido wouldn’t really be a battle of contrasting styles as much as a showdown between two wrestlers who can do a little bit of everything. We haven’t even mentioned The Firm giving Page the edge, but it’s not hard to picture the faction lending the hand he’d need to overcome Bandido, who doesn’t have obvious friends to come to his aid since he’s still new to AEW. That could be the difference.
On the other side of the bracket, Starks and Cage have history as former Team Taz members who eventually had a falling out. Things are different now since Cage was (sort of) the fan favorite when he left the group and Starks is now in that position. Cage also has a team backing him whereas Starks doesn’t, but maybe this is where Joe and Wardlow show up to counter The Embassy. Either way, Starks making the final would be great for him.
Prediction: Page, Starks advance
Final
If it is indeed Page and Starks in the final, it could be a bellwether for what goes down in Full Gear’s main event. A Page victory makes more sense if it’s Moxley who retains, seeing as it would make for a more classic heel vs. face title match at Winter is Coming.
That said, MJF has been showing face tendencies of his own, and while it’s possible he’s simply going to show his true colors after he dethrones Mox — in which case having Starks win this tournament would be the way to go, particularly since Max and Ricky would be a really fun battle of dueling promos for a few weeks — it’s just as likely AEW wants him to keep leaning into that for a bit longer.
As well, MJF has had a falling out with The Firm that could carry over for another month if he wins the AEW World Championship and Page emerges here. For that reason, Page going all the way is the outcome we’ve talked ourselves into.
Prediction: Page wins the tournament
