The New York Knicks (10-24) head to the Grand Canyon State to play the Phoenix Suns (13-21) at Talking Stick Resort Arena at 9 p.m. ET Friday. We analyze the Knicks-Suns odds and lines, with NBA betting advice and tips around the matchup.
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Knicks at Suns: Key injuries
Knicks
- SF Elfrid Payton (personal) questionable
- PG Dennis Smith Jr. (oblique) questionable
Suns
- PG Ricky Rubio (hip) probable
- PF Frank Kaminsky (knee) doubtful
Knicks at Suns: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips
NBA odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full set of today’s betting odds. Odds last updated Friday at 12:30 p.m. ET.
Prediction
Knicks 117, Suns 113
Moneyline (ML)
People are stuck on the early season horribleness of the Knicks (BetMGM oddsmakers included) and haven’t adjusted their power rankings on them since firing former head coach David Fizdale, and replacing him with interim bench boss Mike Miller Dec. 6. Under Miller, the Knicks have markedly improved, going 6-6 outright and 8-4 against the spread.
The Knicks have improved drastically in points per game, opponent’s PPG, field-goal percentage, margin of victory, opponent’s 3-point percentage, defensive rating, offensive rating, defensive rebounding percentage, and then I stopped tracking them. Point is, the Knicks were awful under Fizdale and they are respectable under Miller (through 12 games).
If you like an underdog to cover then there has to be a chance they win outright. Making a smaller wager on the moneyline, but a bigger bet on the spread, is a gambling angle I’ll take to maximize return on investment when betting underdogs. For example, place 30-50% of your total wager on the KNICKS (+225) because we’re going to take the Knicks with the points, as well.
New to sports betting? A $50 bet on the Knicks to win returns a profit of $112.50.
Line/Against the Spread (ATS)
Let’s back the Knicks in this matchup because they have recent success in their betting position compared to the Suns. To elaborate, the Knicks are 4-2 when they are 5-7-point underdogs, whereas the Suns have a 0-2 record as 5-7-point favorites. Also, the Knicks are 9-7 as road dogs and the Suns are 5-5 as home favorites.
Recent trends also give the Knicks a slight edge: They are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games while the Suns are 5-4-1. Combining these factors, and the moneyline handicap above, there is a ton of line value in the number. HAMMER the KNICKS (+6.5, -110).
New to sports betting? A $110 bet on the Knicks to lose by 6 or fewer points or win outright returns a profit of $100.
Over/under (O/U)
Neither team plays good defense. The Suns rank 19th in opponents’ PPG and defensive rating while the Knicks rank 17th in opponents’ PPG and 21st in defensive rating. Also, the Suns have the most Overs when playing at home in the NBA (12-5 Over/Under record).
Furthermore, I expect some revenge motivation from Knicks PF Marcus Morris who played for the Suns from 2012-2015. Morris has played above his averages in eight games he’s played against the Suns—16.5 PPG, .536 field-goal percentage and .452 3-point percentage (career averages: 11.9 PPG, .431 FG% and .367 3-point%). Finally, the Suns’ 20-14 Over/Under record (12-5 at home) has me leaning toward a tiny wager on OVER 224.5 (-121).
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