The New York Knicks (7-21) square off against the Miami Heat (20-8) at AmericanAirlines Arena at 8 p.m. ET Friday. We analyze the Knicks-Heat odds and lines, with NBA betting advice and tips around the matchup.
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Knicks at Heat: Key injuries
Knicks
- PF Julius Randle (leg) questionable
- PG Frank Ntilikina (illness) questionable
- SG Alonzo Trier (concussion) questionable
- SG Wayne Ellington (Achilles) out
- SG Reggie Bullock (neck) out
Heat
- PF James Johnson (personal) questionable
- PG Goran Dragic (groin) questionable
- SF Justise Winslow (back) out
- SG Dion Waiters (suspension) out
- PG Udonis Haslem (illness) out
Knicks at Heat: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips
NBA odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full set of today’s betting odds. Odds last updated at 9:40 a.m. ET.
Prediction
Heat 105, Knicks 92
Moneyline (ML)
We are PASS on the Heat (-556) on the moneyline even though it’s a relatively sure bet, as it’s too expensive to take the Heat for the outright win. The Heat have been lights out at home with an 11-1 overall record and the Knicks are atrocious on the road with a 3-11 record. Also, Miami is 14-2 against teams with a record below .500 and the Knicks are 2-12 versus teams above .500. Betting $55.60 to win a measly $10 is just terrible value.
Line/Against the Spread (ATS)
Let’s PASS on the line of 10.5 as well because there are compelling arguments for taking either side against the spread. The Heat have won and covered their last three games against the Knicks, plus they are 7-1 ATS in games where they are favored by 7.5 or more points. The Knicks are 3-1 ATS when getting 10-12 points, 8-6 ATS on the road. They have been playing better than expectations recently, covering the spread in their last four games.
Over/Under (O/U)
The UNDER 214.5 (-115) is the sharp play because of the two squads’ pace of play—the Knicks are ranked 28th in pace, while the Heat are 20th. Don’t be scared off by the Heats’ 16-11-1 Over/Under record. Trust me, BetMGM factored in the Heats’ O/U record when making their total and still have extra vig on the Under. Having to pay a little extra to get the Under actually makes me more confident in the wager.
Furthermore, Miami’s defense will bottle up a generally futile Knicks offense. The Heat rank 10th in opponent points per game and field-goal percentage, and 2nd in opponent three-point percentage. While the Knicks are ranked last in points per game and field-goal percentage, and 22nd in three-point percentage.
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