On Sunday, the Sacramento Kings (3-2) will visit the Dallas Mavericks (3-2). The game will tip at 3:30 p.m. ET and will be held at American Airlines Center. Below, we look at the Kings vs. Mavericks odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.
Coming off a 3-point road win over the Suns and a 4-point road win against the Pelicans, the Kings have looked good this season.
They’re led by G De’Aaron Fox with major contributions from F Harrison Barnes and G Buddy Hield. Their last two first-round picks, G Tyrese Haliburton and G Davion Mitchell, both have also been key factors in their early-season success.
As for the Mavs, they’ve struggled this season despite their plus-.500 record. Early-season MVP candidate G Luka Doncic has averaged under 25 points per game (PPG) while no other Mav has topped 15.0 per game.
The two playoff-contending teams they’ve faced (Nuggets and Hawks) beat them by an average of 25.5 PPG. This will be a solid test as the Kings have shown major improvements this season.
Kings at Mavericks odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:59 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Kings +155 (bet $100 to win $155) | Mavericks -190 (bet $190 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Kings +4.5 (-110) | Mavericks -4.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 217.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)
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Kings at Mavericks key injuries
Kings
- None impacting gambling odds
Mavericks
- PF Kristaps Porzingis (back) questionable
Kings at Mavericks odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Kings 108, 104
Money line
“LEAN” to the KINGS (+155) as the Mavericks really haven’t shown enough to be giving a road team this type of value. Also, the Kings rank 12th in three-point shooting percentage and three-point shots per game.
With Hield, Haliburton, and Barnes all capable of lighting an opponent up, the Mavs, who rank 24th in opponents’ three-point percentage, don’t match up favorably.
While the value is there for the money line, I’d still lean to the points below.
Against the spread
BET on the KINGS +4.5 (-110) as their defensive tenacity should limit the Mavericks. With that in mind, I think the speedy Kings’ guards, Mitchell and Fox, will be able to aggravate Doncic.
Also, Doncic has struggled since the new implementation of the change in officiating for unnatural offensive movements. He went from shooting 7.1 free throws per game to just 4.4.
With two premier defenders, the Kings should be able to limit the Mavericks’ three-point shooting, which they rely on heavily. The Mavs hoist up the third-most threes in the Association.
Given the Kings’ backcourt defenders and the Mavs reliance on the three along with Doncic’s slow start to the season, I’m backing Sacramento in this one.
Over/Under
“LEAN” to the UNDER 217.5 (-108) as both teams have struggled to score the ball. The Mavericks have scored over 105 just once, and while they’re a high-volume shooting side, they haven’t managed to connect on many.
Despite being 3-2 each, both teams rank outside the top 15 in net rating, meaning they’re getting blown out in losses. With both teams outside the top ten in scoring, I’m only tossing half a unit on the total as the lethal shooters could get hot.
Following the trend of the season, the Under is consistently the better play.
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