Analytics have Texas in store for another close game against Kansas

Texas is in store for another wildly competitive game.

The Texas Longhorns continue their Big 12 gauntlet on the road against Kansas this week. If you’re expecting Texas to finally break through for a decisive win, this might not be the week.

One advanced stats comparison has Texas projected to score an average of 29.0 points to Kansas’ 28.21 average. The projections give the Longhorns a 52.29 percent chance to win, but for the team in Austin games rarely go as planned.

There’s a wide array of data points for Texas heading into Saturday’s game. The first half of the season, Steve Sarkisian’s team was one of the best performers nearly every week. Quinn Ewers’ unpredictability of late makes it difficult to know what to expect from Sarkisian’s squad.

We can glean a few things from the data, although it looks to favor the Jayhawks in more than a few areas.

Let’s examine a few of the key takeaways from the above projection.

Kansas vs Texas Prediction, College Basketball Game Preview

Kansas vs Texas prediction, college basketball game preview, how to watch, lines, and why each team might – or might not – win on Monday.

Kansas vs Texas prediction, college basketball game preview, how to watch: Monday, February 7


Kansas vs Texas How To Watch

Date: Monday, February 7
Game Time: 9:00 ET
Venue: Frank Erwin Center, Austin, TX
How To Watch: ESPN
Record: Kansas (19-3), Texas (17-6)
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Kansas vs Texas Game Preview


Why Kansas Will Win

Texas just isn’t into that scoring thing.

It wins games on defense, forcing turnovers, and more defense. Kansas has to be ready to deal with a low scoring fight, but it’s the No. 1 offensive team in the Big 12. If it can get out to any sort of a hot start, Texas will have to quickly come out of its comfort zone.

How do you beat Kansas? You have to be lights out from the field.

Kentucky was able to rebound everything and did a whole lot of things right in its win, but what do the three teams that came up with wins have in common? They all made more than 50% of their shots from the field.

Texas has yet to hit the 50% mark in Big 12 play this season.

However …

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Why Texas Will Win

Texas knows how to play defense.

It might not be an up-and-down team by design, but all it needs to do is make the shots it gets on the move, hit around 35% from three, and rely on that D to clamp down and make Kansas stall.

No one has yet to score more than 66 points on Texas in Frank Erwin.

Make Kansas earn every outside shot and don’t get rattled if there’s a mini-run of a few transition points here and there. Again, as long as this doesn’t get  into a track meet, everything should be okay.

Texas is 14-1 at home and that one loss to Kansas State was when the offense couldn’t do a thing from the outside.

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What’s Going To Happen

The Texas loss at Texas Tech for a whole lot of attention because of Chris Beard and the atmosphere and the excitement, but this team has quietly been solid over the last few weeks.

Don’t blow off the stifling defensive performance against Iowa State, the tough win over Tennessee, and the blowout at TCU. This team knows how to play tough, tight games in the 50s, but Kansas will have too much pop – and be too good on the free-throw line – late to get out alive in a fun, intense battle.

Kansas vs Texas Prediction, Lines

Kansas 66, Texas 62
Line: Kansas -1, o/u: 135
ATS Confidence out of 5: 2

Must See Rating: 4

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