The Kansas City Royals (57-70) drop by the T-Mobile Park Friday for the second game of a four-game series with the Seattle Mariners (69-59) at 10:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Royals vs. Mariners odds with MLB picks and predictions.
K.C. won the series opener Friday 6-4 thanks to a 6th-inning grand slam by C Salvador Perez to key the victory.
Season series: Royals lead 1-0.
LHP Kris Bubic is the projected starter for the Royals. Bubic is 4-6 with a 4.94 ERA (93 IP, 51 ER), 1.46 WHIP, 4.5 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 across 14 starts and eight relief appearances.
- Last outing: Win, 4-2, with a 6 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 1 H, 2 BB and 9 K Saturday at the Chicago Cubs.
- 2021 road splits: 2-5 with a 5.64 ERA (44 2/3 IP, 28 ER), 1.41 WHIP and 1.9 K/BB in seven starts and four bullpen outings.
RHP Logan Gilbert makes his 18th start for the Mariners. Gilbert is 5-5 with a 5.16 ERA (82 IP, 47 ER), 1.17 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 10.1 K/9.
- Last outing: Loss, 15-1, with 4 2/3 IP, 9 ER, 8 H, 1 BB and 5 K Saturday at the Houston Astros.
- Gilbert grades in the 13th percentile for hard-hit rate, 15th percentile for exit velocity (EV), 40th percentile in expected slugging percentage (xSLG) and 58th percentile in expected wOBA (xwOBA).
Royals at Mariners odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 4:02 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Royals +155 (bet $100 to win $155) | Mariners -190 (bet $190 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Royals +1.5 (-150) | Mariners -1.5 (+120)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: +105 | U: -130)
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Prediction
Mariners 5, Royals 3
Money line (ML)
“LEAN” to the MARINERS (-190) only because I’d prefer to parlay Seattle’s money line with another similarly priced favorite for a plus-money payout.
Seattle is 27-22 overall vs. lefty starters while K.C. is 36-52 against right-handed starters and the Mariners have an edge in all three phases of the game (starting and bullpen pitching and hitting).
Kansas City’s lineup ranks 26th in wRC+ and 27th in wOBA against right-handed pitching with the 21st-worst hard-hit rate.
Also, Bubic grades in the 34th percentile or worse in hard-hit rate, expected wOBA, xSLG, EV, K% and BB%. On top of that, K.C.’s bullpen ranks 23rd in K-BB%, 24th in both xFIP and SIERA.
Both the pros and Joes are backing the Mariners in this spot which has caused oddsmakers to move Seattle’s money line up from the -160 opener to the current number according to Pregame.com.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS because K.C. is 31-25 ATS as a road underdog while Seattle is 6-16 ATS as a home favorite. On top of that, the Mariners are just 2-5 ATS as home favorites against left-handed starters with a minus-29.8% return on investment.
Over/Under (O/U)
“LEAN” to the UNDER 8.5 (-130) for a half unit as a “contrarian play” against the market that’s backing the Over at more than an 80% clip according to Pregame.com.
This is what’s known as a “line freeze“, which is a red flag. The oddsmakers haven’t moved the total down from the opener despite the one-sided action so they might be trying to entice more bets on the Over.
The Mariners are 6-15-1 O/U as home favorites, the Royals are 23-27-6 O/U as road underdogs and Seattle’s lineup is 26th in wRC+ and 28th in wOBA vs. left-handed pitching.
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