The Kansas City Royals (52-68) and Chicago Cubs (54-69) play the first game of a three-game series at Wrigley Field Friday, with a 2:20 p.m. ET first pitch. Let’s analyze the lines around the Royals vs. Cubs odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Royals RHP Brad Keller (7-12, 5.62 ERA) makes his 25th start. He has a 1.69 WHIP, 4.3 BB/9 and 8.0 K/9 through 123 1/3 IP.
- After posting a 5-3 record and a 2.47 ERA in 2020, Keller has taken a step back this season while allowing a .301 batting average to opposing hitters.
- His 6.44 xERA is the worst in MLB among qualified pitchers and he has been tuned up by opposing hitters for a 44.6 HardHit%.
Cubs RHP Zach Davies (6-9, 5.00 ERA) makes his 26th start of the season. He has allowed 67 ER on 123 H and 62 BB with 91 K over 120 2/3 IP.
- Has a 1.53 WHIP with a 4.6 BB/9, 6.8 K/9 and 5.97 xERA. His xERA and .366 xwOBA both rank the Cubs veteran in the bottom 10% of the league.
- Over his last seven trips to the mound, Davies has posted a 6.96 ERA, while allowing 7 runs in two of his last three starts.
Royals at Cubs odds, lines, picks, and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Royals -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Cubs -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Royals -1.5 (+140) | Cubs +1.5 (-180)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -122 | U: -102)
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Prediction
Royals 4, Cubs 2
Money line (ML)
The Royals offense is 25th in runs per game this season and 26th in wOBA and wRC+. Kansas City will make good contact and hit the ball over the field, but only the Pittsburgh Pirates and Arizona Diamondbacks have hit fewer home runs than the Royals.
The only active Royals hitter with an OPS over .800 is C Salvador Perez, and Kansas City doesn’t have a single active player batting over .280.
Lean to the ROYALS (-105).
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
The Cubs are 26-33 ATS at home and Chicago is slugging .397 as a team overall.
Kansas City has gone 29-28 ATS away from home.
Back KANSAS CITY -1.5 (+140).
Over/Under (O/U)
The Cubs and Royals offenses both rank in the bottom 11 of the league in wOBA and wRC+.
From a pitching standpoint, Keller’s ERA has improved to 3.61 over his last seven starts, while Davies’ ERA is on the rise to the tune of 6.96 over his last seven outings.
Bet the UNDER 8.5 (-102).
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