Kansas City Royals at Baltimore Orioles odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Kansas City Royals at Baltimore Orioles odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Kansas City Royals (8-15) head to Oriole Park at Camden Yards to start a 3-game series with the Baltimore Orioles (10-16). First pitch is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Royals vs. Orioles odds with MLB picks and predictions.

K.C. is 3-7 in the last 10 games with back-to-back series losses to the St. Louis Cardinals and New York Yankees after winning 2 of 3 vs. the White Sox in Chicago last week.

Baltimore is 4-6 in its last 10 games, but won back-to-back games over the Minnesota Twins Wednesday-Thursday to split their 4-game series.

Royals at Orioles projected starters

RHP Carlos Hernandez vs. RHP Jordan Lyles 

Hernandez (0-1, 6.00 ERA) lost 3-0 Saturday to the Yankees, allowing 3 R (2 ER) on 4 H and 5 BB with 3 K in 4 IP. He has a 5.32 FIP, 1.89 WHIP and 4.0 K/9 in 4 starts.

  • 2021 vs. Orioles: 1-1 with a 1.80 ERA (10 IP, 2 ER), 6 H, 5 BB and 7 K in 2 starts.
  • vs. Orioles on the current roster: 3.79 FIP with a .211 expected batting average (xBA), .324 expected wOBA (xwOBA), .433 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 13.0 K% and 93.5 mph exit velocity (EV) in 23 plate appearances (PA).

Lyles (2-2, 4.50 ERA) beat the Boston Red Sox 9-5 Sunday, hurling 6 IP with 1 ER, 7 H, 3 BB and 6 K. He has a 4.98 FIP, 1.62 WHIP and 7.3 K/9 in 5 starts.

  • 2021 vs. Royals: 2-0 with a 2.13 ERA (12 2/3 IP, 3 ER), 12 H, 0 BB and 12 K in 2 starts while pitching for the Texas Rangers.
  • vs. Royals on the current roster: 5.33 FIP with a .243 xBA, .282 xwOBA, .428 xSLG, 15.0 K% and 88.3 mph EV in 40 PA.

Royals at Orioles odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:55 a.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Royals +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Orioles -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Royals +1.5 (-190) | Orioles -1.5 (+155)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -125 | U: +100)

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Royals at Orioles picks and predictions

Prediction

Orioles 5, Royals 2

Money line

BET the ORIOLES (-130) as a fade against the Royals (-105) more than anything. K.C.’s hitting and relief pitching are worse than Baltimore’s and the Royals are 2-6 on the road while the Orioles are 7-6 at home.

Baltimore’s lineup has a much better wRC+, wOBA and hard-hit rate vs. right-handed pitching than K.C.’s, according to FanGraphs. Also, the Royals’ bullpen is bottom-5 in MLB in xFIP and K/BB rate and last in WHIP.

BET 1 UNIT on the ORIOLES (-130).

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Run line/Against the spread

SPRINKLE on the ORIOLES -1.5 (+155), if at all, because their hitting has some pop vs. righties and K.C.’s bullpen is just too unreliable.

But the Orioles were 0-11 RL as home favorites last season and this is Baltimore’s first game as a RL home favorite this year. Thus it’s a weird spot for the Orioles so don’t go hard if you bet their RL.

Over/Under

LEAN to the UNDER 7.5 (+100) because the weather forecast is predicting nearly 15 mph winds blowing in from right-center field and because the Orioles are 3-9-1 O/U at home this year.

However, both starters have poor pitching peripherals, K.C.’s bullpen is terrible and Camden Yards had the fifth-highest park factor last season.

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