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The Kansas City Chiefs (14-1) take on the Pittsburgh Steelers (10-5) Wednesday — Christmas Day — in Week 17. Kickoff from Acrisure Stadium is set for 1 p.m. ET (Netflix). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NFL odds around the Chiefs vs. Steelers odds, and make our expert NFL picks and predictions.
The Chiefs took down the Houston Texans Saturday 27-19, covering the spread as 3.5-point home favorites with the Over (42.5) hitting. QB Patrick Mahomes shrugged off a high-ankle sprain and went 28-for-41 for 260 passing yards, 1 TD and 0 INTs. He also rushed 5 times for 33 yards and score. WR Xavier Worthy was the top target, finishing with 7 catches for 65 yards and 1 TD.
The Steelers dropped their second in a row as they fell 34-17 Saturday at the Baltimore Ravens. QB Russell Wilson was 22-for-33 for 217 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT as Pittsburgh failed to cover as 7.5-point underdogs and the Over (44) cashed. Missing WR George Pickens (hamstring) for a third game in a row game has really hamstrung this offense. The good news: He was a full participant in practice Monday and is expected to play Wednesday, which would be huge for the Steelers.
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Chiefs at Steelers odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of NFL odds. Lines last updated Tuesday at 5:27 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Chiefs -150 (bet $150 to win $100) | Steelers +125 (bet $100 to win $125)
- Against the spread (ATS): Chiefs -2.5 (-120) | Steelers +2.5 (+100)
- Over/Under (O/U): 44 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Chiefs at Steelers key injuries
Chiefs
- S Chamarri Conner (concussion) out
- OL D.J. Humphries (hamstring) out
- DL Chris Jones (calf) questionable
- OL Jawaan Taylor (knee) questionable
Steelers
- QB Justin Fields (abdomen) questionable
- CB Joey Porter Jr. (knee) out
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Chiefs at Steelers picks and predictions
Prediction
Steelers 20, Chiefs 17
Moneyline
The Steelers are tied with the Ravens atop the AFC North. Pittsburgh holds the tiebreaker and would be the third seed in the AFC if the season ended today. This Christmas game means far more to Pittsburgh than it does Kansas City, though the Mahomes & Co. are 1 win or 1 Buffalo Bills loss from locking up the top seed — and the AFC bye.
The Chiefs o-line is banged up, and honestly, their tackles have been terrible. Steelers LB T.J. Watt is going to shred them, and I could see K.C. waving the white flag and pulling Mahomes to avoid injury.
TAKE STEELERS (+125) at home.
Against the spread
Since I’m on the Pittsburgh moneyline, it’s a PASS on the spread, but I’d understand if you feel the safer play is taking the 2.5 points.
I’m going with Chiefs TE PAT FREIERMUTH OVER 28.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-120) here. It’s slated to be 38 degrees, and the run game will be huge, but the short-passing game will be the secondary option. The Chiefs have allowed the second-most receiving yards to tight ends over the last 5 weeks, according to fftoday.com.
Over/Under
The Steelers are 7-3 O/U in their last 10 games. The Chiefs are 5-5, and they just ended a 3-game Under streak last week. I look more into the weather, and what this game means for both sides than I do the trends, though.
As mentioned, it’s going to be a cold, miserable, hard-hitting game in Pittsburgh. I really don’t see either team scoring more than 24 points.
BET UNDER 44 (-110), and you should have room to spare.
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