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The Kansas City Chiefs (16-3) and Patrick Mahomes battle the Philadelphia Eagles (16-3) and Jalen Hurts in Super Bowl LVII in Glendale, Ariz., on Sunday at 6:30 p.m. ET (FOX).
There are plenty of wagers to make in all Super Bowl games and prop bets can be fun. While some of the wagers are silly — like the color Gatorade to be dumped on the winning coach — some are serious. Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s NFL odds and tab the 4 best Super Bowl prop bets, and make our expert NFL picks and predictions.
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Best Super Bowl prop bets
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 10:59 p.m. ET.
A.J. Brown OVER 72.5 receiving yards (-115)
With Brown going against a Kansas City’s young secondary, he will not have the difficulties of recent games. During the Eagles playoff run, Brown has only 7 catches for 50 yards after gathering 88 receptions for 1,496 yards during the regular season.
With Hurts airing the ball out more against the Chiefs 18th-ranked pass defense (220.9 yards), he will look to find Brown on at least one long shot down the field. Even when he finds him underneath, Brown is the type of physical receiver who will bulldoze opponents and gain plenty of yards after contact. So 72.5 yards seems right for the way Brown has played of late. He will come on strong here as Hurts also shows up to throw the ball more then the 121 yards he had in the NFC Championship Game.
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Jalen Hurts OVER 238.5 passing yards (-115)
The Chiefs’ defense allows 220.9 passing yards a game (18th). The Eagles averaged 241.5 passing yards (9th). Hurts has had 2 weeks to get his shoulder healed and he will take advantage of a Kansas City secondary with 3 rookie starters.
A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert and Quez Watkins will look to exploit the youth opposite them. Kansas City allowed 33 passing TDs in the regular season and they will allow more here. Hurts OVER 1.5 TD passes (-105) is also a good wager .
Patrick Mahomes OVER 38.5 passing attempts (-115)
During the regular season, Mahomes attempted 648 passes — an average of 38.1 per game. During the playoffs, Mahomes attempted 30 against the Jacksonville Jaguars, despite missing much of the 2nd quarter with an ankle injury, and attempted 43 in the AFC Championship Game against the Cincinnati Bengals.
The Eagles pass rush with get to Mahomes and force him to throw the ball quickly. They may not be long passes, but they will be passes that count for this prop. FYI, so do the shovel passes Mahomes loves so much.
The Chiefs will find it hard to run the ball on the Eagles. While the Philadelphia pass defense ranks No. 1 in the NFL at 179.8 yards per game, Mahomes will still be forced to throw the ball to keep Kansas City in the game. While I also like the OVER .5 interceptions for Mahomes, I will take the pass attempts at 38.5 (-115) instead.
Travis Kelce to score 3+ TDs (+2000)
Coming into the 2022 season Kelce had only 1 game in which he scored 3 TD. Due to injuries and the trade of Tyreek Hill, Kelce was the main target for Mahomes this season and this led to him having 2 games in which he got to 3 TDs. While this is not a wager likely to hit, it is a fun longshot with good odds to make a small wager on. I mean $10 to win $200 is not a bad payout. It is worth a shot.
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Bonus game prop: OVER 5.5 total sacks (-110)
Frank Clark has played in 11 playoff games and has 10.5 sacks in those games. Chris Jones, possibly the best DT in the NFL this season with Aaron Donald injured, finally got off the snide and got his 1st career playoff sack against the Cincinnati Bengals. The Chiefs were 3rd in the NFL in sacks this season and who will going against an Eagles team which allowed 44 sacks of its quarterbacks.
The Eagles sacked opposing QBs 70 times during the regular season and have 5 more in 2 playoff games. Haason Reddick added to his 16 regular season sacks with 3.5 more in the postseason. In the NFC Championship Game against the 49ers, Reddick had 2.5 sacks and a forced fumble. If he is unable to get to the QB, Josh Sweat, Javon Hargrave and Brandon Graham are all capable of getting Mahomes on the mat, eEspecially while he is still nursing a gimpy ankle.
So 5.5 sacks is a great wager to make in Super Bowl LVII.
More 2023 Super Bowl coverage
- Odds, picks and predictions for the big game
- QB props: Patrick Mahomes | Jalen Hurts
- Cheat sheet: Picks and predictions galore
If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW, or try out our USA TODAY Parlay Calculator. Please gamble responsibly.
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