Week 15 kicks off with a massive AFC West matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs (9-4) and Los Angeles Chargers (8-5) on Thursday Night Football as these two teams continue to battle for the division title. Things will get underway at 8:20 p.m. ET from SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, Calif. Below, we look at the Chiefs vs. Chargers prop bet odds and lines, and make our best NFL picks, predictions and bets.
The Chiefs are beginning to look like Super Bowl contenders once again after a slow start to the season. They’ve won their last six games and haven’t allowed more than 17 points in a single outing across that span, holding opponents under 10 points in each of their last three games. The offense has woken up, too, scoring 70 points in the last two weeks – including a 48-point outburst against the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 14.
The Chargers are also righting the ship after hitting some speedbumps, winning their last two by a combined score of 78-43. They already beat the Chiefs earlier this season, 30-24 in Week 3, so another victory over Kansas City would put LA in the driver’s seat for the division crown.
Chiefs at Chargers prop bet picks and predictions
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 10:50 a.m. ET.
Chiefs RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire OVER 58.5 rushing yards (-120)
The Chargers’ run defense is, well, not good. They allow 4.7 yards per carry and have given up the second-most rushing yards in the NFL at 1,829. This could lead to a big day for Edwards-Helaire who may not get a huge workload but should average a healthy 5 or more yards per carry as he did in the first meeting with Los Angeles.
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Chargers QB Justin Herbert OVER 288.5 passing yards (-114)
Herbert has gotten back on track in recent weeks, averaging 319.3 yards per game in his last four starts. Those outings were against some decent defenses in the Pittsburgh Steelers, Denver Broncos, Cincinnati Bengals and New York Giants.
The Chiefs are playing well defensively right now but they’ll be without CB L’Jarius Sneed and could be missing their best pass rusher DT Chris Jones who was placed on the COVID reserve list Tuesday. Herbert could be forced to throw it 40-plus times if the Chargers fall behind.
Chiefs TE Travis Kelce OVER 5.5 receptions (-156)
Kelce hasn’t had more than five receptions since Week 10 and has gone over that number just once in his last six games. However, he’s still seeing a healthy number of targets, averaging 7.3 in that span, including four games with 8-10 targets since Week 8. He should snap out of his funk with back-to-back games of three catches and 27 yards.
Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes UNDER 280.5 passing yards (-114)
Mahomes has only thrown for more than 280 yards once in his last seven games, and that was in Week 10 when he gashed the Raiders for 406 yards and 5 touchdowns. That appears to have been an outlier, however, as he has just two games of 280-plus yards since Week 3. The Chargers like to take away big plays by keeping their DBs deep, so that could limit Mahomes.
Chargers QB Justin Herbert OVER 16.5 rushing yards (-114)
Herbert has shown off his speed plenty of times this season and even rushed for 90 yards against the Steelers in Week 11. He’s topped 16 yards rushing five times this season and four of those games have come since Week 10. He could go over this number with one long rush and has a good chance to crack 17 yards rushing considering he’s carried it at least four times in each of his last six games.
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