In a welterweight championship bout in the main event, Kamaru Usman and Leon Edwards meet Saturday at UFC 278 at Vivint Arena in Salt Lake City, Utah. Below, we analyze the UFC 278 Usman vs. Edwards odds and lines, with picks and predictions.
The early prelims begin at 6:30 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+, with the prelims starting at 8 p.m. ET on ABC/ESPN/ESPN+. The main card starts at 10 p.m. ET on Pay-per-view.
The champ Usman holds a 2-inch reach advantage, and he also has an impressive 4.66-to-2.62 advantage in the significant strikes landed per minute category. He is also well ahead in takedown average at 3.00-to-1.48, while he is also accurate with a 49.02% takedown percentage.
Edwards has clawed his way into title contention with a 9-0-1 record since his loss to Usman in their first bout back in Dec. 2015. He lost that night by unanimous decision.
The Briton has 7 wins via decision during the 9-0-1 run with 1 no-contest against Belal Muhammad, a KO/TKO win over Peter Sobotta in March 2018, and a submission win over Albert Tumenov at UFC 204 in Oct. 2016.
Edwards posted the impressive win via unanimous decision against Nate Diaz last time out at UFC 263.
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UFC 278 Usman vs. Edwards odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:30 a.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Usman -340 (bet $340 to win $100) | Edwards +250 (bet $100 to win $250)
- Over/Under: 4.5 rounds (Over -170 | Under +122)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -180 | No +130)
[tipico]
UFC 278 Usman vs. Edwards picks and predictions
Records: Usman (20-1-0) | Edwards (19-3-0)
Fight result (2-way line or money line)
Usman (-360) is heavily favored to retain his welterweight strap. However, you cannot risk more than 3 1/2 times your potential winnings, so let’s get specific.
Usman has successfully defended his title 5 times, including 3 KO/TKO victories. The most recent knockout came in Round 2 at UFC 261 over Jorge Masvidal in April 2021. Edwards tends to hang around, going the distance in 4 of his past 5 fights, and he lost via UD to Usman in the first meeting.
USMAN (-115) BY POINTS is the way to go here. Edwards won’t go quietly into the night as 10 of his past 12 fights have ended up going the distance.
Over/Under (O/U)
YES (-180): FIGHT TO GO THE DISTANCE is a little on the expensive side, but it’s a good play based upon Edwards’ history. The first meeting also ended up needing the judges to decide a winner. OVER 4.5 ROUNDS (-170) might be the better play, however, as it is cheaper, and allows for a little wiggle room in the event of a late finish.
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