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In a 3-round flyweight bout on the main card, Kai Kara-France and Steve Erceg meet Saturday at UFC 305 at RAC Arena in Perth, Australia. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC 305: Kara-France vs. Erceg odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.
The early prelims begin at 6:30 p.m., and they can be viewed on ESPN+. The prelims begin at 8 p.m. ET, and they can be viewed on ESPN/ESPN+, while the main card starts at 10 p.m. ET on pay-per-view.
Records: Kara-France (24-11-0) | Erceg (12-2-0)
The diminutive Kara-France stands 4 inches shorter than his Aussie counterpart, but he has a slight 1-inch reach advantage.
This is an evenly matched battle as far as significant strikes landed per minute, with KKF at 4.57 and Erceg checking in at 4.53. The Aussie is much more accurate, however, as Erceg has a 53.04% significant strikes accuracy percentage, to just 43.97% for the Kiwi. Erceg is much better on takedown average, holding a 1.24-to-0.63 advantage.
Kara-France lost to Brandon Moreno at UFC 277 in a championship bout, getting knocked out in Round 3. He responded poorly next time out, falling to Amir Albazi via split decision in a Fight Night main event last time out in early June.
Erceg was on the losing end of a unanimous decision at UFC 301 in a flyweight title bout against Alexandre Pantoja, so this is an interesting fight. The winner can get right back into the title picture, while the loser falls further away from that goal.
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UFC 305: Kara-France vs. Erceg odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:40 a.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Kara-France +156 (bet $100 to win $156) | Erceg -186 (bet $186 to win $100)
- Over/Under: 2.5 rounds (Over -260 | Under +196)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -215 | No +164)
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UFC 305: Kara-France vs. Erceg picks and predictions
Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)
It’s always a good idea in a fight which appears to be a coin flip to back the fighter from the host nation. ERCEG (-186) is a little on the pricey side, but he isn’t over my personal limit for a standalone moneyline wager. In addition, he’s an excellent addition for a multi-leg parlay ticket.
Erceg is just a little more accurate with his significant strikes, and he’ll have the home nation on his side. And, if he needs to, he has the takedown ability in his quiver, which is another aspect which will help wow the judges in his favor.
Over/Under (O/U)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-260) will cost you nearly 3 times your potential return. That’s way too expensive, as is Yes (-215): Will the fight go the distance? Maybe you can take the latter as part of a parlay, but don’t think about it straight up.
Instead, get a little more specific. We like the favorite to get the job done. He’ll likely win via decision, so taking ERCEG BY POINTS (+125) at plus-money is by far a better value than the options above.
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