2022 Butterfield Bermuda Championship odds, field notes, best bets and picks to win

This week is the perfect opportunity for someone to grab a first career win.

After a week in the Low Country, the PGA Tour is in Southhampton, Bermuda, for the Butterfield Bermuda Championship.

Last year at Port Royal Golf Course, Lucas Herbert was able to fend off current LIV Golf member Patrick Reed and Danny Lee to win by one with a score of 15-under 269.

Denny McCarthy enters as the betting favorite at +1500, while Seamus Power and Mark Hubbard are two of the four names at +2000. McCarthy has one top-25 finish so far this season (T-25, Fortinet) and tied for 37th at last week’s CJ Cup at Congaree.

Defending champion Herbert is not in the field.

Golf course

Port Royal Golf Course | Par 71 | 6,828 yards

Butterfield Bermuda Championship 2021
Guido Migliozzi of Italy plays his shot from the 16th tee during the third round of the Butterfield Bermuda Championship at Port Royal Golf Course on October 30, 2021 in Southampton, Bermuda. (Photo by Cliff Hawkins/Getty Images)

Key stats

  • Strokes Gained: Approach
  • Birdie or better percentage
  • Total driving

Data Golf Information

Course Fit (compares golf courses based on the degree to which different golfer attributes — such as driving distance — to predict who performs well at each course – DataGolf): 1. Warwick Hills Golf and Country Club, 2. Pebble Beach Golf Links, 3. La Quinta Country Club

Percent chance to win (based on course history, fit, trending, etc.): 1. Denny McCarthy (4.6 percent), 2. Seamus Power (3.8 percent), 3. Aaron Rai (2.8 percent)

Golfweek’s weekly podcast

Twilight 9: Rory McIlroy – The Face of Golf

Betting preview

Justin Lower’s rollercoaster ride of emotions continues and Danny Willett hires ‘a tall Yoda’ among the 5 things we learned during the third round of the Fortinet Championship

“I’m sure I’ll be nervous, for sure…I mean, it’s why we play.”

Justin Lower’s rollercoaster ride of emotions continues.

The 33-year-old journeyman pro bogeyed two of his first seven holes but rallied with five birdies, including one at the last to sign for 3-under 69 at Silverado Resort’s North Course in Napa, California. It was good enough to improve to 13-under 203 and take a one-stroke lead over defending champ Max Homa and former Masters champ Danny Willett heading into the final round of the Fortinet Championship.

“It was tough out there today, it was a little breezy, greens getting firmer and firmer,” Lower said. “I just really just tried to keep it in the fairway and give myself as many birdie looks as possible.”

Some of those birdies even have come from off the green. Lower chipped in for birdie for the third time in three rounds at the fourth hole on Saturday.

Lower has taken one circuitous journey to his first final-round pairing on the PGA Tour. He attended Q-School six times, missed earning his card by a single shot in 2018, and needed to pitch to a foot from 30 yards to save par at the final hole at the 2021 Korn Ferry Tour Championship in Indiana to secure his playing privileges for the first time. Lower still wasn’t sure if he’d done enough to earn the last card until his fellow pros and caddies showered him with beer and champagne. When he finally grabbed hold of his coveted PGA Tour card, Lower said, “It’s heavier than I thought it would be.”

His rookie season had more lows than highs, beginning with a missed cut in Napa at last season’s kick off event.

“I left this course last year kind of in shock, honestly. I was like, God, if this is how the Tour is, I need to get a lot better very quickly,” he recalled.

In August, at the Wyndham Championship, he needed to two putt from 61 feet at the final hole to make the FedEx Cup playoffs and keep his card. He took three putts and gave a teary-eyed interview afterwards.

But when six players defected to LIV Golf, Lower was granted exempt status for next season. So far, he’s taking advantage of it. He shot a career-best 63 on Thursday and has the 54-hole lead at a Tour event for the first time. He could crush his best Tour finish to date — a T-10 at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans, the two-man team event — but there also are nine players within four shots of his lead.

“I’m sure I’ll be nervous, for sure, but just part of it,” Lower said. “I mean, it’s why we play. Yeah, it’s just, I don’t know, playing on the PGA Tour with a chance to win, it’s pretty cool.”

FortinetPGA Tour on ESPN+ | Leaderboard | Sunday tee times

Rookie nerves, a ‘mini-moon,’ and free rolling among the 5 things we learned at the first round of 2022 Fortinet Championship

When Justin Lower chipped in for the second time of the day, his caddie said, “Time to go buy a lottery ticket.”

NAPA, Calif. – When Justin Lower chipped in for the second time of the day at Silverado Resort’s North Course, his new caddie, Chad Gonzales, turned to the other caddies in his threesome and said, “Time to go buy a lottery ticket.”

It was that type of day for Lower, who holed out on Nos. 5 and 7 en route to making birdie on the half the holes and opening a three-stroke lead when was play was suspended due to darkness in the first round of the Fortinet Championship.

Lower was the hard-luck loser, who finished 126th in the FedEx Cup regular season standings and gave an emotional interview at the Wyndham Championship, the final regular-season event.

That meant that Lower had to go back and play in the Korn Ferry Tour Finals to try to earn his card back. He had competed in the first two events and likely had locked up his Tour card for the new season when several players defected to LIV Golf and Lower was suddenly full-exempt for the coming season for the first time in his career.

FortinetPGA Tour on ESPN+ | Yardage book | Leaderboard | Friday tee times

“It’s been kind of a whirlwind,” he said. “It sucked but it turned out for the better. … I’m just happy to be here.”

And taking advantage of his opportunity he did. Lower’s 63 was a career low for him on the PGA Tour.

Here are four other things we learned during the first round of the 2022 Fortinet Championship.

Six golfers earned PGA Tour cards just as six LIV golfers teed off in shotgun start in Boston

Once a player strikes a tee shot on the LIV Golf Series, he has lost his status on the PGA Tour.

Not sure they should be expecting thank you cards or gift baskets, but when the six newest members of the LIV Golf Series teed off in Boston on Friday for their 1:15 p.m. ET shotgun start, six others earned their PGA Tour cards.

Officially, Cameron Smith, Marc Leishman, Joaquin Niemann, Harold Varner III, Anirban Lahiri and Cameron Tringale were “removed from the 2021-22 FedEx Cup Playoffs and Eligibility Points List,” according to the PGA Tour.

This then elevated Kelly Kraft, Justin Lower, Doc Redman, Austin Smotherman, Matt Wallace and Danny Willett inside the top 125, thus granting them their Tour cards for the 2022-23 season.

The Tour’s announcement specifically mentioned the 1:15 p.m. ET time. Once a player strikes a tee shot on the LIV Golf Series, he has lost his status on the PGA Tour.

Kraft, Lower, Redman were removed from the Korn Ferry Tour Championship on Friday after they earned fully exempt status. They cannot improve their standing on the Eligibility List. Smotherman, Wallace and Willett did not reach the Korn Ferry Tour Finals.

The top 25 finishers at the Finals will earn PGA Tour cards. The final FedEx Cup Playoffs and Eligibility Points List for the 2021-22 season will be finalized at 5 p.m. ET on Sept. 9, 2022.

[mm-video type=playlist id=01es6rjnsp3c84zkm6 player_id=01evcfxp4q8949fs1e image=https://golfweek.usatoday.com/wp-content/plugins/mm-video/images/playlist-icon.png]

PGA Tour rookies achieve their dreams, but can they keep their dream jobs?

Unlike some pro sports, there are no guaranteed contracts in professional golf.

NAPA, Calif. – Callum Tarren wondered when he might be getting his PGA Tour card.

The 30-year-old England native seemingly had worked a lifetime to gain admission to the big leagues. He finished tied for fourth at the Nationwide Children’s Hospital Championship three weeks ago, a result that locked up one of the 25 PGA Tour cards given out in the Korn Ferry Tour Finals with one event still remaining. But he skipped the ceremony a week later to fly home and spend time with his first child, Sofia, born two weeks earlier.

Tarren’s friend, David Skinns, a 39-year-old journeyman pro from England who spent time during golf’s pandemic shutdown as both a bartender and DoorDash driver to make ends meet before earning his card too, made sure Tarren received the grand symbol of Tour membership at the Fortinet Championship, the first of 48 tournaments that make up the 2021-22 PGA Tour season. Skinns marked his golf ball on the putting green with Tarren’s card during a practice round at Silverado Resort & Spa’s North Course.

Tarren and Skinns aren’t the only ones who have waited a long time to achieve their dream of playing on the PGA Tour. Justin Lower, 38, attended Q-School six times, missed earning his card by a single shot in 2018, and needed to pitch to a foot from 30 yards to save par at the final hole at the Korn Ferry Tour Championship in Indiana to secure the last card. Lower still wasn’t sure if he’d done enough until his fellow pros and caddies showered him with beer and champagne. When he finally grabbed hold of his coveted PGA Tour card, Lower said, “It’s heavier than I thought it would be.”

There are 27 rookies in this season’s class on the PGA Tour, the most since 2011 when 35 earned cards, and 26 of them are in the field this week (all but Matthias Schwab). Max McGreevy and Jared Wolfe are making their Tour debuts.

Some, like Aaron Rai, a 26-year-old Englishman who once holed a record 207 straight 10-foot putts at age 15, needed just three starts in the Korn Ferry Tour Finals to graduate while others such as Scott Gutschewski, 44, is returning to the big leagues full time for the first time since 2011. He made just two PGA Tour starts in the past 10 years. How did he celebrate his success? He went to Denny’s.

“It ain’t Applebees, but still pretty fancy,” he tweeted.

Hayden Buckley was the last man to get into the Korn Ferry Tour’s Lecom Suncoast Classic in February and then birdied the first hole of a sudden-death playoff to jumpstart earning his Tour playing privileges. Membership has its privileges. It also means having to play against the likes of World No. 1 Jon Rahm and PGA Championship winner Phil Mickelson, who headline the field this week in Napa.

But there are no guaranteed contracts in professional golf. Stephan Jaeger is back for his third tour of duty. He was the Korn Ferry Tour Player of the Year, winning his sixth career title on the circuit, tied for second most all time, but he’s yet to record a top-10 finish in 62 starts on the PGA Tour. Still, he remains undeterred.

“I’ve done a lot over the last year and that’s given me a lot of confidence that like, ‘Hey, I can do this out here,’ ” he said.

Lower shares Jaeger’s never-give-up attitude. The 11-year-pro shed tears of joy when he finally secured the job he’d always dreamed of. This week marks the arrival at his destination, PGA Tour member, but the real work had just begun.

“It means everything,” he said, “and I don’t think this is it. I don’t think my journey is over at all. I think it’s just getting started.”

This Ohio journeyman is so close to his PGA Tour dream (and he shot a 67 on Thursday)

Needing to make an 8-foot putt on the last hole of the 2018 Korn Ferry Championship to reach the PGA Tour, his putt burned the edge.

Justin Lower takes no offense with being labeled a journeyman golfer.

“It fits,” said the 32-year-old from Canal Fulton, Ohio, whose six seasons on the Korn Ferry Tour have included tons of rough road trips and a fair share of heartbreak.

Nothing hurt Lower (pronounced Lauer) more than an excruciating brush with golf greatness. Needing to make an 8-foot putt on the last hole of the 2018 Korn Ferry Championship to reach his goal of moving up to the PGA Tour, Lower’s putt burned the edge of the cup, a miss that ultimately kept him $500 short of earning PGA Tour status.

Hard moments like that leave scar tissue. Lower tried to bandage the wound by using the missed putt as motivation, but the psychological ploy backfired.

“I learned the hard way that it was hurting me more than anything,” he said on Thursday after shooting a 4-under-par 67 that put him near the top of the leaderboard at the Nationwide Children’s Hospital Championship at the Ohio State Scarlet Course.

A top-10 finish this week would put the Malone University graduate and 2010 NAIA Nicklaus Award winner in a strong position to finish among the top 25 players receiving PGA Tour cards at the completion of the three-event Finals next week.

Rather than focus on his 8-foot failure, Lower flipped the switch by viewing tapes of him coming through in the clutch.

“There’s a video I watch from the finals of the 2017 Q School where on the last hole I knew I needed the putt to get guaranteed starts (on the Korn Ferry Tour),” he said. “It was about a 12-footer and I poured it right in.”

Not bad for a journeyman.

Lower told himself in 2012 that he would give professional golf about seven years, and if he did not reach the PGA Tour by then he would find another career.

Nearly a decade later and he’s still grinding away, chasing a dream that continues to elude him. What gives?

“I just love the game,” he said. “I don’t want to do anything else. It’s fun. I have an unbelievable support system: wife, family and friends. I’m lucky, for sure. I have one of the best jobs in the world.”

The challenge is remembering how blessed he is, especially when things are not going as planned on the golf course. He cites lack of patience as the thorn in his side.

“I’m always working on my attitude and keeping level-headed. That’s not easy for me,” he said. “I need to learn to not get greedy at the wrong times.”

The final step in mental evolution is believing in himself the way others do.

“I think I’ve got every shot. Everyone tells me that,” he said. “Everyone says it’s my time Whether it is or not we’ll see.”

roller@dispatch.com

@rollerCD