Vikings WR Justin Jefferson listed as Minnesota’s best value contract

The Minnesota Vikings have already gotten great value out of Justin Jefferson.

Minnesota wide receiver Justin Jefferson took the league by storm in his rookie NFL season.

Jefferson finished 2020 with 1,400 receiving yards and seven touchdowns. NFL teams can get a big advantage by having stars on rookie contracts, and that’s exactly what the Vikings have in Jefferson.

Bleacher Report’s Brad Gagnon thinks Jefferson’s deal is the best value on the Vikings’ books. Gagnon wrote:

“But because he wasn’t an especially high first-round pick (22nd overall), Jefferson did all that for just $2.4 million. He’ll keep getting raises moving forward, but his $3.3 million average annual rate still ranks 57th among players at his position.”

There are some other possible candidates for this spot — like cornerback Cameron Dantzler and right tackle Brian O’Neill — but I think with the Vikings, Jefferson is the clear choice for best value. Now, Minnesota needs him to stay healthy and maybe even take a leap in his second NFL season.

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Vikings’ biggest risk listed as ignoring the wide receiver position

The Minnesota Vikings need Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson to stay healthy this season.

Minnesota put in a lot of work to revamp its defense this offseason. Even the offensive line may have improved, assuming rookie starters can adjust to the NFL quickly.

But beyond Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson, the Vikings have a drop-off on the wide receiver depth chart. Bleacher Report’s Gary Davenport thinks that’s the biggest risk Minnesota is taking here. Davenport wrote:

“Given that relative lack of depth, there was some expectation that the Vikings might sign a free agent receiver or draft a wideout relatively early this year—especially after the home run the team hit with Jefferson. But it wasn’t until the fifth round of the 2021 draft that Minnesota addressed the position with Iowa’s Ihmir Smith-Marsette.”

It’d be great if Smith-Marsette became the next Stefon Diggs, but that’s an unlikely bet. Minnesota will likely go with Chad Beebe, Bisi Johnson and Smith-Marsette as options besides Jefferson and Thielen. Unless, of course, the Vikings have more free agency news coming this offseason.

Three Vikings snubbed from PFF’s top 50 list

Here are some notable Vikings players left off PFF’s top-50 list.

The Vikings landed three players on Pro Football Focus’ top-50 player list: Dalvin Cook, Harrison Smith and Eric Kendricks.

Cook was ranked 26th, Smith was 32nd and Kendricks was 33rd. The Vikings are lucky to have those three — each of whom have helped the team be competitive over the last several seasons.

However, there are some other Minnesota stars who were snubbed from PFF’s list this year. Here are some players on the Vikings who maybe should have made the list.

Just a note: PFF’s list is a projection of what the outlet thinks will happen, rather than a rankings based off of what has happened. Also, positional value is not considered.

Top photos from Vikings OTAs

Here are the top photos from the Minnesota Vikings’ OTAs so far!

The Vikings have changed up their defense by adding pretty big names through free agency. Those names — like Patrick Peterson and Dalvin Tomlinson — will need to gel with the scheme and overall defense right away. Or else, Minnesota could be looking at another down year.

OTAs (Organized Team Activities) are a key time to get acclimated. With all the new faces, the Vikings will need to emphasize cohesiveness this offseason. If the Minnesota defense can’t get stops like last year, the offense may not be able to keep up.

With OTAs underway, here are the top photos from the practices thus far:

Vikings WR Justin Jefferson named the non-QB Minnesota can’t afford to lose

The Minnesota Vikings need to make sure Justin Jefferson stays healthy — or else they could be in trouble during the 2021 NFL season.

The Vikings have one of the top wide receiver duos in the NFL with Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen leading the way.

After that, though, it gets murky. Minnesota has a drop off at the wide receiver position at wide receiver three: with Bisi Johnson, Chad Beebe and Ihmir Smith-Marsette as viable candidates for that role.

With that in mind, CBS Sports’ Cody Benjamin tabbed Jefferson as the non-QB the Vikings can’t afford to lose. Benjamin wrote:

“This one’s tough, because as much as RBs are replaceable, Dalvin Cook basically makes Mike Zimmer’s preferred offense. New left tackle Christian Darrisaw is almost equally as important, unless Minnesota is prepared for another bout of Kirk Cousins mishaps. And Danielle Hunter is still underrated at pass rusher. But man, if Jefferson’s play-making pop is gone, the Vikings would be left with Adam Thielen and not much else in a passing league.”

I think with Alexander Mattison as a serviceable backup, Cook isn’t as crucial as someone like Thielen and Jefferson. That said, if Minnesota wants the offense to be on a similar production level as last season, the Vikings need all those three to stay healthy for the vast majority of the year.

Late-season heroes: Wide receivers

Which wideouts were better later in the season?

Below shows the “points per game” ranking for running backs for Weeks 1 to 8, and Weeks 9 to 16 with a minimum of four games played. Overall shows the total points ranking for the season.  Points-per-game (PPG) and “Games” refer to Weeks 9 to 16.

While each one carries their own story of a unique season, the lack of Top-30 wideouts that were younger players is a bit of a surprise. The wideouts are very sensitive to their quarterback situations and occasionally weather later in the year.

Will Fuller (HOU / BAL) – What would fantasy football be without Will Fuller showing up like a rock star and then disappearing just when you finally buy into him.  He’s moved onto one of the worst passing teams (Ravens) who have better options to also to not target much. Fuller only played in ten games in 2020 and yet registered a touchdown or 100 yards in eight. According to drafts this summer, no one is buying into the oft-injured wideout now with the Ravens.

Mike Evans (TB) – This was nice to see since it was the first season with Tom Brady as the starting quarterback. Starting in Week 9, Evans scored six times to finish the regular fantasy season that included 100-yard efforts in Week 15 and 16 while making the playoffs. He gained 119 yards in Washington in the Wild Card Round and scored in the next two playoff games as well.

Diontae Johnson (PIT) – Johnson has quietly been outstanding, particularly in the second half of last season. Hampered with back and toe injuries earlier in the year, he missed one game and turned in minimal stats in three others. Starting in Week 9, Johnson finished the fantasy season with two 100-yard efforts and four scores along with at least eight catches in five of his final six matchups. The playoff loss to the Browns saw him catch 11 passes for 117 yards. Ben Roethlisberger’s arm left him with short passes last year – most of those went to Johnson.

Justin Jefferson (MIN) – This is what you dream of from a rookie wideout. He was already playing like a WR2 through Week 8 with a couple of monster home games (TEN, ATL) that helped his stats. Starting in Week 10, he went on a hot streak the rest of the way other than one week in Tampa Bay. The second half of the year saw him with  six of eight games sporting at least ten targets. All scores came in home games which should change this season, but he’s already a much-used outlet in the passing game.

Brandon Aiyuk (SF) – This is another rookie wideout of note who showed up better later in the year than many realize. Limited to a couple of catches in almost all the early games, Aiyuk became a difference-maker as of Week 7 when he caught six passes for 115 yards at the Patriots. He scored in four of the next five and gained 119 yards in the only non-scoring matchup in that stretch. He averaged  seven catches per game between Weeks 7 and 15.

Curtis Samuel (CAR / WAS) – It’s all academic now with Samuel changing teams, but the second half of last year saw him used more as a receiver than any time in his previous four years. He became reliable for five catches per game and now heads to Washington with a chance to be the No. 2 wideout behind Terry McLaurin.

JuJu Smith-Schuster (PIT) – Similar to Diontae Johnson, Smith-Schuster was much more productive in the second half of the year with six touchdowns starting in Week 9. His yardage rarely broke 60 yards and he never managed a 100-yard performance, but he scored seven times in the final ten games that he played.

Marvin Jones (DET / JAC) – He changed teams as well, so the 31-year-old Jones resets his career beyond his prime. To his credit, he scored eight of his nine regular-season touchdowns starting from Week 8. Now he’ll have to elbow his way up the Jaguars depth chart playing with a rookie quarterback.

DK Metcalf (SEA) – It was bothersome to see Metcalf decline last year after a thoroughly impressive start. Through Week 8, he scored seven times and gained 90+ yards in seven of his eight games. He only managed three more scores in the regular season, and five of eight games held fewer than 62 yards. His initial four games all were only four catches each and yet never lower than 92 yards. His 25.1 yard average in the first month fell much lower when secondaries realized they should never allow Metcalf to get behind everyone.

A.J. Brown (TEN) – He was a touchdown machine in 2020, partially because the defense expected Derrick Henry to run it in. Brown opened the year injured but in Week 5 returned to string five straight games with a touchdown. His stats suffered later in the year since he caught more than four passes in a game just twice starting in Week 8. That seemed likely to change with Derrick Henry potentially not run into the ground this year, but the addition of Julio Jones throws that into doubt.

T.Y. Hilton (IND) – Hilton was never the same without Andrew Luck. Now t 31 years old, he isn’t likely to see any significant upturn with a different quarterback for the third-straight year. After flopping for the first eleven weeks of 2020, he surprised with four straight games with at least 70 yards and scored four times in that stretch. He became reliable for 70+ yards starting in Week 12, so keep tabs on him this season to see if he warms up with Carson Wentz later in the year.

Nelson Agholor (LV / NE) – He’s never been better than a mediocre wideout useful for fantasy depth, but he certainly came to life later last year in Las Vegas. His eight touchdowns were evenly spaced during the season, but he managed 100-yard games in Weeks 14 and 16 with a score in each. He was still more of an “every other week” kind of receiver and now lands in New England. While it is a positive that he comes off a career best season, it still wasn’t enough to induce the Raiders to stick with him.

Vikings WRs Adam Thielen, Justin Jefferson named a top five wide receiver duo

The Minnesota Vikings have a top five wide receiver duo in Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson, per Bleacher Report.

Minnesota had one of the top wide receiver duos in the NFL with Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen. The Vikings traded Diggs in the 2020 offseason, but the team ended up replacing him with arguably the best rookie of that year’s draft class.

So despite the loss of Diggs, Minnesota already has a top five wide receiver duo, according to Bleacher Report. Maurice Moton, who writes for the outlet, tabbed Jefferson and Thielen as the fifth-best wide receiver duo in the league. Here’s what Moton wrote:

“For the upcoming campaign, Jefferson and Thielen could clear the 1,100-yard mark. Quarterback Kirk Cousins may also have more incentive to show off his arm with a new offensive coordinator (Klint Kubiak) and rookie third-rounder Kellen Mond behind him on the depth chart.”

That’s a bold prediction, one that would help the Vikings quite a bit if it comes true. Minnesota needs Jefferson and Thielen to remain at their current 2020 production at least. If Cousins is more consistent at the beginning of the year and Jefferson starts every regular season game, this could be a bounce-back season for the Vikings.

Is Justin Jefferson already a top-5 WR?

Not only did Jefferson exceed expectations in year one, but he also ended up setting numerous Minnesota Vikings and NFL all-time records.

Former LSU wide receiver Justin Jefferson came into the leauge last season without high expectations. Jefferson was selected by the Vikings in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft, with the 22nd overall selection.

Expectations for players drafted outside of the top-15 are much different than those drafted at the top of the draft, especially top-5.

Many believed Jefferson could be a nice compliment to Vikings wide receiver Adam Thielen and running back Dalvin Cook. After the Vikings traded Stefon Diggs to the Buffalo Bills, a wide receiver was a need for them heading into last years draft.

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Enter Justin Jefferson.

Not only did Jefferson exceed expectations in year one, but he also ended up setting numerous Minnesota Vikings and NFL all-time records.

In year two, the expectations for Jefferson will be much, much different. The league has now seen how talented a player Jefferson is. Defenders will challenge Jefferson in a new way, a more physically demanding way, and he will have to adjust accordingly.

Judging from how he’s approached the offseason, I’d say he’s up for the challenge.

Justin Jefferson had an historic rookie season for the Vikings, and many would say it’ll be tough to top what he accomplished in year one.

I think he’s up for it.

Vikings WR Justin Jefferson ranked the seventh-best players under 25

Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson was named one of the top young players in the NFL.

Vikings WR Justin Jefferson’s impactful rookie season has put him in the conversation for being one of the best, young players in the NFL.

Just look at this list created by Cody Benjamin of CBS Sports. Benjamin tabbed Jefferson as the No. 7 best player under 25. Here’s what he wrote about the Vikings wideout:

It’s hard to believe now, but countless draft pundits viewed him as more of a safe than special prospect in 2020. Turns out Jefferson was both. A safety valve and elite play-maker for Kirk Cousins and Co. as a rookie, instantly replacing Stefon Diggs’ swag and production, he already has the looks of a top-five starter at his position — a matchup nightmare with a knack for splash plays.

Minnesota needs Jefferson to be just as good or better in 2021. If that’s the case, the Vikings could bounce back and make the playoffs — with the help of their revamped defense and special teams.

Better than average: Wide Receivers

Which WRs scored the biggest fantasy game on each defense?

The best measurement of a wide receiver is how they fared against a defense relative to all others that also faced that defense. That removes the element of schedule strength because the best game that the Rams allowed may only be an average one from a lesser defense.

The Top-8 fantasy performances against each defense were arrayed and each  wideout was recorded for how often they were in the Top-8, the Top-4 and Top-1 versus a defense last season.

Also see: QB | RB | TE

Adding up those numbers yields a BTA score since they are better than the average receiver that faced a defense. It also weighs the performances since a Top-1 also counts as a Top-4 and a Top-8.

Bottom line – this is about how well a player did against a defense relative to all the others in his position did when they faced them. It is far tougher to produce a Top-8 game as a wideout that any other position since in any given game, usually three or four wide receivers will play for an offense and elite wideouts receive far tougher coverage than any others on the field.

There was a lot of movement in this listing from 2020. Back then, the top BTA players included Michael Thomas, DeVante Parker, DJ Chark, Chris Godwin, and Kenny Golladay. They all declined for various reasons.

Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams, DeAndre Hopkins, Keenan Allen, and Mike Evans remained near the top.

Justin Jefferson’s phenomenal rookie year had him as the No. 5 wideout in this measurement. Diontae Johnson, Calvin Ridley, Stefon Diggs, and DK Metcalf rocketed up the listing from 2020. Even Brandon Aiyuk quietly put together an impressive rookie year.

These are the wide receivers that scored the most fantasy points allowed by a particular defense.

Again – there are at least three wideouts on every offense with fantasy points each week. Notching even one instance of the best game given up by a defense is impressive enough. Stefon Diggs shattered all expectations in his first season with the Bills.