Chargers dominate Patriots to clinch playoff berth: Instant analysis of Week 17 win

Here’s our recap of the Chargers’ win over the Patriots in a game that saw Justin Herbert toss three touchdowns and make NFL history.

The Chargers are heading to the playoffs after their win over the Patriots on Saturday afternoon.

Here’s our recap of Los Angeles’ 40-7 win over New England.

It was over when…

Justin Herbert hit Ladd McConkey for a 40-yard touchdown to go up 27-7 in the third quarter.

Notable number

Justin Herbert broke Peyton Manning’s NFL record for most passing yards in a player’s first five seasons (20,618).

3 stars of the game

  1. QB Justin Herbert: 283 passing yards, 3 touchdowns
  2. RB J.K. Dobbins: 19 carries, 76 yards, TD
  3. WR Ladd McConkey: 8 catches, 94 yards, 2 TDs

Quick hits

  • The Chargers are in the playoffs for the third time in 11 seasons.
  • The Chargers’ offense spent most of the game on the field, dominating the time of possession battle, 40:34 to 19:26.
  • The offensive line kept Justin Herbert upright for the entire game, and he took advantage of the clean pockets. When kept clean, Herbert had an 80% adjusted completion percentage with 247 passing yards and three touchdowns.
  • Herbert’s top target was Ladd McConkey, who surpassed Keenan Allen for most receiving yards and receptions by a Chargers rookie. Quentin Johnston finished second in receiving with five catches for 48 yards. Joshua Palmer was next with four grabs for 41 yards.
  • The offense benefited from J.K. Dobbins’ return from injury. Dobbins averaged 4.0 yards per carry and found the end zone. He also set a new season high in rushing yards, shattering his previous best (800) in his rookie campaign.
  • Jesse Minter’s defense made life difficult for rookie Drake Maye. Maye was sacked four times and was held to 112 passing yards on 22 attempts.
  • New England went 2-of-10 on third down and failed to make it to the red zone.
  • Derius Davis had a punt return touchdown, but it was negated by a holding penalty.

What’s next?

The Chargers close out the regular season on the road against the Raiders next Sunday, Jan. 5. The kickoff time is to be determined.

Chargers highlight: Ladd McConkey extends the lead over Patriots

Ladd McConkey is on a tear.

Ladd McConkey already set a Chargers rookie record early on Saturday, securing his 72nd reception of the season to surpass Keenan Allen on the franchise leaderboard.

So why not add a touchdown to his day?

After Derwin James fell on a fumbled toss by the Patriots, the Chargers offense took over on the New England 44 yard line. They mixed the run and the pass as they marched down the field, giving Hassan Haskins a carry up the middle to set up first and goal from the 6.

Justin Herbert dropped back and scanned the field before firing a rocket over the middle to McConkey, who hauled it in with a host of Patriots defenders around him to extend the Chargers lead to 17-0.

The drive also moved Herbert past Peyton Manning for the most passing yards in a player’s first five seasons when he hit JK Dobbins on a checkdown for 7 yards to bring the Chargers inside the Patriots 15 yard line.

https://x.com/chargers/status/1873082327821431241

Who are the experts taking in Chargers vs. Patriots?

Find out who experts are picking between the Chargers and Patriots.

The Los Angeles Chargers are 4-point road favorites over the New England Patriots in Week 17 of the 2024 regular season. The over/under is 42.5 points, per BetMGM Sportsbook.

That means oddsmakers are taking bets on whether the two teams will combine to score more than or fewer than 42 points.

My score prediction for the game is a 24-14 win for the Chargers, with a total of 38 points. So, if I were putting money based on my prediction, I’d bet the under.

As for game picks, analysts believe Los Angeles will clinch a playoff spot this weekend.

Expert Pick
Nate Davis (USA Today) Chargers
Jarrett Bell (USA Today) Chargers
Mike Clay (ESPN) Chargers
Matt Bowen (ESPN) Chargers
Pete Prisco (CBS Sports) Chargers
Bill Bender (Sporting News) Chargers
NFL.com Staff Chargers (4-1)
Bleacher Report Chargers

Saturday’s game will begin at 10:00 a.m. PT and be televised on NFL Network.

Statistical Breakdown: How the Chargers and Patriots stack up before Week 17 game

Here’s how the Chargers and Patriots stack up statistically on offense and defense ahead of Saturday’s matchup.

The Chargers and Patriots are set to square off this Saturday.

Here’s how Los Angeles and New England stack up statistically on both sides of the ball ahead of the Week 17 matchup:

Offense

Category Chargers Patriots
Points per game 21.9 ppg (18th) 17.3 ppg (30th)
Passing offense 200.8 ypg (28th) 178.5 ypg (32nd)
Rushing offense 106.5 ypg (23rd) 119.7 ypg (14th)
Total offense 307.3 ypg (24th) 298.3 ypg (29th)
3rd down conversions 37.89% (18th) 35.75% (26th)
Red zone scoring 57.50% (14th) 47.73% (31st)
Sacks allowed 43 (21st) 47 (26th)
Turnovers 9 (2nd) 21 (20th)

Defense

Category Chargers Patriots
Points allowed 18.3 ppg (1st) 24.1 ppg (24th)
Passing defense 213.9 ypg (15th) 212.4 ypg (12th)
Rushing defense 124.1 ypg (17th) 130.4 ypg (24th)
Total defense 337.9 ypg (15th) 342.8 ypg (21st)
3rd down conversions 37.07% (10th) 42.08% (25th)
Red zone defense 44.74% (1st) 62.75% (24th)
Sacks 42 (7th) 28 (31st)
Takeaways 19 (14th) 12 (29th)

 

How Week 16 win affected Chargers place in NFL power rankings

The Chargers stood steady in the NFL Power Rankings after their win over the Broncos.

The Chargers improved to 9-6 after beating the Broncos last Thursday.

After Week 16, let’s see where Los Angeles stands in NFL power rankings:

USA Today: 12 (Previous: 16)

“It took a 48-year stretch, but the Bolts have now converted the NFL’s last two successful fair catch kicks. Bummer that Bill Belichick, who enjoys an arcane football rule as much as anyone, won’t be on the sideline at Foxborough on Saturday when the Chargers visit.”

NFL: 10 (Previous: 13)

“First things first: The Chargers earned some serious nerd points from me with their fair-catch free kick. Like Jim Harbaugh, I find it to be my favorite play in football. Fair-catch free kicks come around about as often as Halley’s Comet, and they’re almost never successful, so that one from Cameron Dicker was a big yes from me, dawg. And when Justin Herbert carried his team on his back with a gutsy effort against the Broncos on Thursday — with the free-kick field goal giving them a boost heading into halftime — it reinvigorated me a bit when it comes to the Bolts, who have their flaws but remain plucky. I’m not quite convinced that the final 2.5 quarters of defense atone for everything we saw over multiple games prior to that point, but it was a much-needed start. If Los Angeles’ D can perform like that again at New England on Saturday, I’ll buy back even more shares. The Patriots don’t score a ton of points, but Drake Maye can stress the Chargers’ secondary if they’re not careful.”

ESPN: 11 (Previous: 12)

Rookie of the year: Wide receiver Ladd McConkey

“Right tackle Joe Alt and cornerback Tarheeb Still have strong cases, but McConkey has been the Chargers’ most important offensive player not named Justin Herbert. McConkey and Herbert have already become one of the league’s best quarterback-receiver pairings. Out of 34 QB-receiver combos with at least 75 targets this season, the two rank in the top five of QBR, completion percentage and yards per attempt. McConkey leads the Chargers in receptions (69), targets (94) and yards (960).”

CBS Sports: 12 (Previous: 13)

“The Chargers bounced back from the blowout loss to the Bucs with a nice division victory over the Broncos. One more victory and they are in the playoffs.”

Sports Illustrated: 12 (Previous: 14)

“Roughly 11 compensatory draft picks for Jim Harbaugh to completely overhaul the front end of this roster.”

Bleacher Report: 13 (Previous: 10)

“Watching two of the NFL’s stingiest defenses allow 55 points was a little odd, but this was an impressive gut-check win the Chargers. The run game in Los Angeles remains a question mark (this week’s stats were skewed by one long Gus Edwards run), but the Chargers play excellent defense and have the sort of high-end quarterback in Justin Herbert who can make all the difference in the world in a playoff game. The Bolts are not a team folks want to have to face in the Wild Card round.”

Chargers PFF grades: Best, worst performers in Week 16 win over Broncos

Spotlighting Pro Football Focus’ highest and lowest-graded Chargers players from the win over the Broncos.

In Week 16, the Chargers defeated the Broncos, 34-27.

En route to victory, there were some standout performers and others who did not contribute as much.

That said, here are the best and worst performers from Sunday’s contest, according to Pro Football Focus’ player grades.

Top 5 Offense

FB Scott Matlock — 83.8

TE Tucker Fisk — 80.5

QB Justin Herbert — 78.2

WR Joshua Palmer — 74.7

RB Gus Edwards — 73.6

Top 5 Defense

DT Teair Tart — 92.9

DT Poona Ford — 77.0

EDGE Tuli Tuipulotu — 73.4

CB Kristian Fulton — 72.0

LB Daiyan Henley — 71.5

Bottom 5 Offense

OL Bradley Bozeman — 32.1

OL Trey Pipkins — 35.7

OL Zion Johnson — 46.6

WR Quentin Johnston — 53.0

WR DJ Chark — 56.0

Bottom 5 Defense

LB Junior Colson — 29.1

S Kendall Williamson — 37.0

CB Ja’Sir Taylor — 49.5

LB Denzel Perryman — 51.8

CB Tarheeb Still — 52.2

Watch highlights from Chargers’ comeback win over Broncos

If you missed the Chargers’ win over the Broncos or just want to relive it, here are the highlights.

The Chargers completed a double-digit comeback on Thursday night, defeating the Broncos, 34-27.

Justin Herbert threw for nearly 300 yards and two touchdowns. Jesse Minter’s defense held Denver to six points in the second half after allowing three TDs in the first half.

If you missed the game or want to relive it, the entire highlight reel can be seen below.

Chargers secure second-half comeback over Broncos: Instant analysis of Week 16 win

Here’s our recap of the Chargers’ loss to the Broncos in a game that saw Los Angeles complete a double-digit comeback.

The Chargers pieced together a double-digit comeback in the second half, taking down the Broncos in a 34-27 battle on Thursday night.

Here’s our recap of Los Angeles’ Week 16 win.

It was over when…

Justin Herbert pitched the ball to Hassan Haskins, who ran for a 34-yard touchdown with 2:27 remaining to go up by 10.

Notable number

The Chargers swept the Broncos for the first time since the 2010 season.

3 stars of the game

  1. QB Justin Herbert: 281 yards, 2 passing touchdowns
  2. RB Gus Edwards: 2 rushing TDs
  3. WR Ladd McConkey: 6 catches, 87 yards

Quick hits

  • Before their win, the Chargers had lost 13 straight games when trailing by double digits, the fifth-longest active streak in the NFL.
  • Credit offensive coordinator Greg Roman for devising a game plan that resulted in 34 points against the league’s best defense.
  • The Chargers totaled 380 yards, 263 passing and 117 rushing, averaging 6.2 yards per play. They went 3 of 4 in the red zone.
  • Justin Herbert connected with ten different pass-catchers.
  • According to Next Gen Stats, Herbert used play action on a career-high 47.2% of his dropbacks against Denver, finishing 12 of 15 for 155 yards with a play fake.
  • Ladd McConkey led all receivers with 87 yards. Joshua Palmer was second with 41 yards on three catches.
  • Before his 43-yard run, Gus Edwards was only averaging 1.9. yards per carry. Still, Edwards found the end zone twice, bringing his touchdown total to four on the season.
  • After giving up three touchdowns in the first half, defensive coordinator Jesse Minter made some adjustments by dialing up and executing more pressure to mitigate the thin defensive backfield.
  • In the second half, Los Angeles forced four punts, two of which were three-and-outs, on five of Denver’s possessions.
  • Ryan Ficken, knowing the free-kick law, paid off as Cameron Dicker’s 57-yard field goal was good right before the half, the first free-kick FG since 1976.
  • The Chargers now have a 97% chance to make the playoffs after the win.

What’s next?

The Chargers are back on the road to face the Patriots (3-11) on Saturday, Dec. 28, at 10:00 am PT.

Staff predictions for Chargers vs. Broncos

Find out who the Chargers Wire staff is picking between Los Angeles and Denver in Week 16.

The Los Angeles Chargers kick off Week 16 against the Denver Broncos.

Who is going to come out victorious?

Here is a look at the predictions from each of our writers at Chargers Wire:

Gavino:

This is one of the most important games of the season for the Chargers as they look to avoid a three-game losing streak and improve their chances of making the playoffs. Los Angeles has not lost three straight this season, and I believe they avoid that. Bo Nix has played well this season, but he’s been turnover-prone. He’s thrown five interceptions over the past two weeks. The Broncos’ offense is nowhere near as explosive as the Buccaneers, so I expect a bounce-back performance from Jesse Minter’s unit, especially since Denzel Perryman will be back from injury. Justin Herbert and company will have their work cut out against Denver’s elite defense, but I think the offensive group will be able to do enough to prevail. Chargers 23, Broncos 20

Alex K:

The Chargers have struggled to move the ball since JK Dobbins (knee) went to injured reserve. That issue will likely continue against a Broncos defense with edge rusher Nik Bonitto and cornerback Patrick Surtain II, both of whom are legit Defensive Player of the Year candidates. But Denver’s offense will probably have the same problems against LA, who should be able to bounce back thanks to the return of Denzel Perryman and a better matchup. Chargers 19, Broncos 17

Should you start Justin Herbert in fantasy football this week vs. Broncos? Here’s our take.

Is he a good start in the fantasy football playoffs.

Justin Herbert has flashed moments of QB1 skills in 2024, despite the fact that the Los Angeles Chargers quarterback is on a team that runs the ball a fair amount.

But his ankle injury in Week 14 wasn’t good even though he played all but one snap in Week 15. Now, he’s coming into Thursday night’s game against the Denver Broncos without an injury designation, and if you have him in the fantasy football playoffs, you might be wondering: do you start Herbert?

Denver is just OK against the pass and terrific against the run, but couple that Broncos defense with the short week and the injury recovery, and I’m sitting Herbert. There are assuredly better QBs to start out there.

Good luck!

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