Colts 2025 free agency predictions: Will Julian Blackmon return?

Colts 2025 free agency predictions: Will Julian Blackmon return to Indianapolis?

In the coming weeks, we will be taking a closer look at each of the Indianapolis Colts’ unrestricted free agents and making a prediction as to whether or not they will return for the 2025 season.

To kick things off, let’s start with safety Julian Blackmon.

Blackmon returned to the Colts for the 2024 season on a one-year deal after testing free agency last offseason.

He was coming off a career year in 2023 as the team’s strong safety. However, a shoulder injury in the Colts’ Week 1 opener against Houston forced a position change.

After missing the Colts’ Week 2 matchup, when Blackmon returned in Week 3, he primarily lined up at free safety, where there is less contact and with the hope that doing so would help keep him on the field–which it did.

Compared to his 2023 season, Blackmon’s production took a step back in 2024. In part, that’s product of playing deeper and not being as close to the action as often.

However, one would think that, to some degree, his shoulder injury played a factor, and following a career season, some sort of regression was probably the most likely outcome.

So will Blackmon return this offseason? My guess is that he won’t.

Safety is certainly a need for the Colts with only Nick Cross, Rodney Thomas, and Marcel Dabo under contract for the 2025 season.

In addition to that, improved play on the back end and in the secondary as a whole is needed. As GM Chris Ballard said after the season, “we’ve got to get better.”

There is certainly some stability that Blackmon could provide by returning, especailly at a position that still has its unknowns. But if things are going to change in Indianapolis, they can’t stick with the status quo and bringing back the same players year after year on teams who didn’t make the playoffs.

Whether it’s free agency, whether it’s the draft, or both, the Colts need some new additions in the secondary that can hopefully help elevate the play of this unit.

I also think it’s worth noting that a year ago when Blackmon was a free agent, the Colts had no problem with him testing the market, which I think was a sign that even at that time, they were okay with him moving on.

With all of that said, while I certainly understand if you’re going to be in wait-and-see mode to see if Ballard’s offseason approach actually changes, his season-ending press conference did give that vibe when he called his roster building approach in 2024 a “mistake.” Now, to what extent things might change, we will have to see.

Prediction: Julian Blackmon signs elsewhere

What does Colts S Julian Blackmon’s projected free agent contract look like?

With help from PFF, let’s take a look at what Colts’ S Julian Blackmon’s projected free agent contract could look like this offseason.

With Indianapolis Colts’ safety Julian Blackmon set to be a free agent this offseason, what could his next contract end up looking like?

Pro Football Focus has recently put together a projection for Blackmon and the other top 100 free agents this offseason.

According to PFF, they are projecting that Blackmon lands a three-year deal with $21 million. This includes $11 million guaranteed.

If Blackmon’s actual contract does land in this ballpark, his average annual contract value of $7 million would make him the 20th highest-paid safety in 2025 and he would rank 22nd in guaranteed money at the position.

This contract projection, in terms of years, total value, and guarantees looks similar to what the Jacksonville Jaguars gave Darnell Savage last offseason.

After a career year in 2023 as the Colts’ strong safety, Blackmon transitioned back to free safety early in the season because of a shoulder injury that he sustained in Week 1.

The hope was that this move would keep Blackmon on the field this season, which it did. He will, however, now require surgery on the shoulder this offseason.

Overall in 2024, Blackmon’s numbers this season compared to last were down, which in part, was a product of the position change, and I would think to some degree, the shoulder played a factor as well.

Blackmon finished the year with 84 tackles, three interceptions, and one pass breakup, while allowing 16.8 yards per catch in coverage.

With only Nick Cross, Rodney Thomas, and Marcel Dabo as the only safeties currently under contract for the 2025 season, depth is very much a need for the Colts.

However, so is improved play as GM Chris Ballard mentioned, so perhaps this ends up being a situation where the Colts look to bolster this position group elsewhere–since the emphasis seems to be on bringing in added competition throughout the roster–rather than committing a three-year deal to Blackmon.

Last offseason, Blackmon explored the free agent market before ultimately re-signing with the Colts on a one-year deal after not liking the options that were out there.

The Colts rank 18th in cap space at the moment with just over $28 million, although they have the means to create a lot more room.

Are Colts moving Julian Blackmon back to free safety?

Are the Colts moving Julian Blackmon back to free safety? That’s what the unofficial depth chart and recent playing time suggests.

Each week, the Indianapolis Colts release their unofficial depth chart ahead of their upcoming matchup, and this week’s edition came with a noteworthy change.

Unlike in the previous weeks, Julian Blackmon was listed as the free safety rather than the strong safety. This, in turn, then put Nick Cross as the strong safety.

Typically, unofficial depth charts need to be taken with a grain of salt, to a degree. I mean, after all, it is unofficial. However, the snap counts from the Colts Week 3 win show a shift for Blackmon back to free safety.

According to PFF, of the 90 defensive snaps that Blackmon was on the field for against Chicago, 74 came at free safety with 15 in the box of slot.

During Week 1, the last time Blackmon had played, he had a more equal split with 40 snaps near the line of scrimmage and 39 deep.

Cross, meanwhile, went from playing 62 snaps at free safety in Week 1  to just 36 of the 90 possible snaps there in Week 3.

Prior to the 2023 season, Blackmon was primarily utilized as a free safety. However, as a box defender last season, he put together a career year, ranking as one of the best safeties in PFF’s run-stop rate metric, along with recording four interceptions and two pass breakups in coverage.

While there has certainly been a shift this past game in regards to where Blackmon and Cross are lining up, what’s also clear is that the Colts want both players to be interchangeable when it comes to filling the free and strong safety roles.

This adds a layer of unpredictability for the offense, not necessarily knowing who will be where or what the responsibilities of each player is. So while we may see Blackmon with more snaps deep moving forward, he’s still going to be down near the line of scrimmage depending on the opponent and situation.

Colts S Julian Blackmon will return to practice on Wednesday

After missing practice last week and the game against Green Bay, Colts’ safety Julian Blackmon will be back at practice on Wednesday.

The Indianapolis Colts are back on the practice field Wednesday in preparation for their Week 3 matchup with the Chicago Bears, and returning to practice safety Julian Blackmon.

https://twitter.com/JakeArthurNFL/status/1836427879497728198

After playing 100 percent of the Colts’ defensive snap in Week 1 against the Houston Texans, Blackmon did not practice at all last week and was ruled out of the Week 2 game against the Green Bay Packers on Friday.

Blackmon had been dealing with a shoulder injury–the same shoulder that ended his 2023 season early–however, last week head coach Shane Steichen said that he did not believe the injury was long-term.

Related: Colts’ DE Laiatu Latu will not practice on Wednesday

In Blackmon’s absence, the Colts moved Nick Cross from free safety to strong safety, with Rodney Thomas then getting the start in the deep safety role. Ronnie Harrison, who was signed back to the practice squad last week, was elevated to provide depth at the position.

Tasked with heavy run responsibilities, Cross handled himself well down in the box, making 13 total tackles and missing only one by PFF’s metrics. Although the Colts secondary wasn’t tested often, they did allow Packers’ quarterback Malik Willis to have an efficient performance, completing 12-of-14 passes for 122 yards and a score.

Once practice is over and the Colts release their initial injury report for the week, we will find out if Blackmon was a limited participant today or a full participant.

Colts rule safety Julian Blackmon out vs. Packers

The Indianapolis Colts have ruled out safety Julian Blackmon against the Green Bay Packers.

The Indianapolis Colts already thin secondary takes another hit with safety Julian Blackmon being ruled out of Sunday’s game against the Green Bay Packers.

https://twitter.com/JakeArthurNFL/status/1834638906832146480

After playing every defensive snap on Sunday in the loss to Houston, Blackmon did not practice at all this week, dealing with a shoulder injury. According to the Indy Star’s Joel Erickson, it is the same shoulder that he injured last season but the Colts’ do not believe this injury will be long-term.

The Colts already find themselves shorthanded in the secondary, with cornerback JuJu Brents being placed on IR.

When it comes to replacing Blackmon, the Colts can either have Ronnie Harrison take over at strong safety in order to keep Nick Cross at free safety. Or Cross could move down to the box with Rodney Thomas taking over at deep safety.

The back end of the Colts defense surrendered an efficient performance to CJ Stroud last week, who completed 24-of-32 passes at 7.3 yards per attempt with two passing touchdowns and a passer rating of 115.9.

The secondary was the big unknown for the Colts entering the 2024 season. This was a unit that battled inconsistent play in 2023 and returned essentially the same cornerback and safety rooms this year.

Now the Colts will be without two of their starts, putting an already thin unit to the test.

The Colts are preparing for Malik Willis to start at quarterback for the Packers. Willis has only 67 career pass attempts, but has a litany of playmakers around him that will present a massive challenge for the Colts’ secondary.

With questions at CB, Colts now have unknowns at safety with Julian Blackmon missing practice

In addition to the question marks at CB, the Colts now have some unknowns at safety with Julian Blackmon having missed practice the last two days.

It’s only Week 2, and the Colts’ already thin cornerback room is going to have its depth put to the test with JuJu Brents on injured reserve. Unfortunately, that may end up being true at the safety position as well.

During Wednesday’s practice, Julian Blackmon popped up on the injury report with a shoulder injury and did not practice. Then, on Thursday, the reporters who were at Colts’ practice did not see Blackmon that day either.

https://twitter.com/RomeovilleKid/status/1834277239015215490

Without Brents at cornerback, the Colts are either going to have to rely on Dallis Flowers, who is coming off a 2023 Achilles injury and was a healthy scratch in Week 1, or Sam Womack, who was claimed off waivers just over two weeks ago and is viewed by the team as more of a slot presence.

Now at safety, the Colts signed Ronnie Harrison to the practice squad on Tuesday. Before that addition, including Blackmon, there were only four safeties on the 53-man roster and one on the practice squad in Marcel Dabo, an International Pathway Player.

Hopefully, Blackmon is able to go on Sunday, but if he is not, then we likely see Harrison take over at strong safety with Nick Cross at free safety. I supposed if you’d like to explore another option, the Colts could move Cross to strong with Rodney Thomas starting at free.

As of now, it does not look like Jordan Love will be playing for the Packers, which has the Colts preparing for Malik Willis to get the start at quarterback. Making Willis uncomfortable begins with slowing the Packers’ running game down, and putting him and the offense in obvious passing situations where the Colts’ pass rush can pin its ears back.

That, of course, will be a job that’s easier said than done against an offense that features Josh Jacobs at running back–not to mention that the Colts just surrendered 200-plus yards to the Houston Texans on the ground.

Contributing to those run game woes was the Colts’ usage of light boxes to provide the secondary with additional help against a dynamic trio of Texans’ receivers.

It’s very possible that the pendulum swings in the other direction for the Colts this week, given that I imagine there will be a strong emphasis on improving the run defense, along with Willis likely starting at quarterback. The goal for the Colts should be to put the ball in Willis’ hands and not Jacobs.

However, the potential downside to that approach is that there may be more one-on-one matchups on the back end against a group of Packers pass catchers that boasts depth and playmaking abilities. Between the receivers and tight ends, there are eight players who could see regular snaps within this offense.

While there will be unknown in what to expect from Willis, the Packers will have the clear advantage when it comes to the pass-catchers versus defensive backs matchup. The Colts’ ability to create pressure will be a must in an effort to help out their secondary.

Colts S Julian Blackmon did not practice on Wednesday

Along with two other defensive starters for the Colts, safety Julian Blackmon did not practice on Wednesday.

The Indianapolis Colts released their Wednesday injury report ahead of their Week 2 matchup with the Green Bay Packers, and safety Julian Blackmon was one of three defensive starters listed.

The other two were DeForest Buckner (back) and Kwity Paye (hamstring).

Blackmon did not participate due to a shoulder injury. When Blackmon sustained the injury is not known. Against the Houston Texans in Week 1, he played 100 percent of the defensive snaps.

With Joe Mixon and the Texans running game frequently getting to the second level on Sunday, Blackmon totaled 11 tackles on the day, which didn’t include any misses, according to PFF’s metrics. In coverage, Blackmon allowed two receptions for only 17 yards.

Blackmon popping up on the injury report now adds some clarity to the Colts’ decision to sign Ronnie Harrison to the practice squad. On their 53-man roster, the Colts only had four safeties, including Blackmon, with Nick Cross, Rodney Thoams, and Trevor Denbow all listed as free safeties on the depth chart.

It remains to be seen if Blackmon’s status for Week 2 is in jeopardy. If the Colts are without him, they’ll have limited options at strong safety, which will include either starting Harrison or moving Cross to strong safety with Thomas taking over at free safety.

The safeties are going to be play an important role against a Packers’ offense that features Josh Jacobs at running back and a litany of pass catching options.

Following career year, Colts’ S Julian Blackmon picking up where he left off

After a career year in 2023, Colts’ safety Julian Blackmon is picking up where he left off here in training camp.

Following a career year in 2023, Colts’ safety Julian Blackmon seems to be picking up where he left off through the first two weeks of training camp.

Through what has been nine practices open to the Colts’ media, Blackmon has made multiple interceptions during that span and, in general, is making plays up and down the football field on what seems like a daily basis.

“It’s been phenomenal so far,” said Shane Steichen recently about Blackmon’s play. “I mean he’s making plays left and right. He’s all over the field. The communication on the backend with him and the other guys has been tremendous. We’ve just got to keep that going.”

Last season, Blackmon would make the move from playing free safety to strong safety, closer to the line of scrimmage, and he thrived in that role.

“It just fits my role better, it fits my personality better,” Blackmon said earlier this offseason via Colts.com. “I’m more of a talkative person, I like to be around the ball and I like the take the ball away, and so that strong safety position in this defense, specifically, is more of that role. For me, it was kind of easy to move over there and start making those plays.”

As a coverage defender, Blackmon forced four interceptions, two pass breakups, and held opposing quarterbacks to a passer rating of just 57.5. In the run game, Blackmon was a reliable tackler and ranked among the best in PFF’s run-stop rate metric.

In addition to the playmaking that we saw from Blackmon last season and again into training camp, the strong safety in Gus Bradley’s defense is one of the key communicators as well.

“Well, schematically, I mean, they ask a lot of the strong (safety) in this scheme,” said Assistant GM Ed Dodds. “It’s a lot of communication, a lot of checks, they do different things.”

Although Blackmon would have his best season to date playing strong safety, the Colts have experimented with him at free safety during training camp. In fact, one of his interceptions came while playing deep.

This doesn’t mean that the Colts are committed to moving Blackmon back to that role, but with there being a void at free safety, they’re exploring all options. The ultimate goal is to put the best two players on the field.

That, of course, includes Blackmon, but who his running mate will be or who will be lined up deep is still a work in progress.

Colts could explore moving Julian Blackmon to free safety

With a big question mark at the free safety position, the Colts appear to be open to moving Julian Blackmon there.

The free safety position remains a major question mark for this Colts’ defense. In an effort to provide some needed stability to that role, the team may look into moving Julian Blackmon from the strong safety spot to the free safety position, according to ESPN’s Stephen Holder.

During Friday’s practice, Blackmon came away with his second interception of the week. However, unlike his first takeaway, Blackmon’s second came as the deep safety. After practice, Holder asked Shane Steichen about the potential move, with Steichen confirming that they are looking into this.

“Coach Shane Steichen confirmed they’re looking at that as a possible move,” Holder posted on X.

Blackmon has experience playing free safety. In fact, that’s where the bulk of his playing time came from prior to 2023. But last year, he made the move to strong safety and put together a career year.

By PFF’s run-stop rate metric, Blackmon was one of the best at the safety position and a very sound tackler. In coverage, he came away with four interceptions and two pass breakups, with opposing quarterbacks having a passer rating of just 57.5 when targeting him.

“It just fits my role better, it fits my personality better,” Blackmon said earlier this offseason via Colts.com. “I’m more of a talkative person, I like to be around the ball and I like the take the ball away, and so that strong safety position in this defense, specifically, is more of that role. For me, it was kind of easy to move over there and start making those plays.”

After Nick Cross and Rodney Thomas shared the first-team reps at free safety during offseason programs, the Colts introduced Ronnie Harrison to the mix at the start of training camp.

Since then, Harrison and Cross have both been taking snaps with the starters, according to The Athletic’s James’ Boyd, while Thomas appears to be the third option at the moment. However, at least from the outside looking in, the Colts still seem to have more questions than answers when it comes to this position.

If the Colts do intend to play Blackmon at free safety, then Harrison perhaps becomes the front-runner for the strong safety role. Last season with the Colts, he played linebacker, and before that, had spent the previous few seasons as a strong safety. The Colts also used Cross in the strong safety role when he first entered the NFL.

As far as making an outside addition goes, GM Chris Ballard didn’t rule that out as a possibility, however, it didn’t sound like a move was imminent either, with him wanting to see how this positional battle unfolded first.

“We like our young players,” said Ballard last week. “I’m not saying we won’t do something. We definitely could. But I want to see these young guys get after it and compete.”

Shane Steichen details impressive interception from Colts’ S Julian Blackmon

Colts’ safety Julian Blackmon had an impressive interception on Sunday and Shane Steichen detailed what he saw.

On the third day of Colts training camp, Anthony Richardson threw his first interception, but from the sounds of it, it was more so a much more impressive play by Julian Blackmon than an error by Richardson.

“That ball, when Anthony threw it there, I was like, ‘Oh heck yeah, we got one–holy crap, that was a heck of a play,’ said Shane Steichen after practice.

Steichen makes sure that his viewpoint during practice is from a similar angle as the quarterback, so he can see the play developing as Richardson does. As he was watching the play unfold, Steichen thought Richardson made the right decision based on what the defense was doing, but Blackmon fooled both of them.

“The one interception he had,” added Steichen, “I threw it right there too and when he made the play, I mean I ran over to him and dapped him up because it was an incredible play.”

So, what specifically did Steichen see Blackmon do on that play?

“He was down in the box and he kind of wheeled back and went and got it.”

Blackmon is coming off a 2023 season where for the first time in his career, he spent the majority of his snaps playing near the line of scrimmage as the defense’s strong safety. It also happened to be an incredibly impactful season for him as well.

Blackmon was a very sound tackler, making 88 of his 95 attempts and ranked among the best at his position group in PFF’s run stop rate metric. In coverage, Blackmon came away with four interceptions, two pass breakups, and quarterback’s had a passer rating of 57.5 when targeting him.

“I think he’s going to have a huge year for us,” Steichen said. “Just the way his mindset, the way he sees the game. I mean, the way you talk football to him it’s like talking to another coach and he made a ton of plays today. He made some big time plays.”

Blackmon would test free agency during the offseason but ended up re-signing with the Colts a one-year deal worth $3.7 million.

When it comes to what’s next for Blackmon in 2024, he only has one goal in mind: be better than the year before.

“I think that as you go you realize how hard it is in this league to continue to get better and better, and I think that I’m just chasing to get better than the last year,” said Blackmon on Sunday. “Whatever that looks like last year, I want to see what I did that wasn’t as positive and try to maintain something that’s better than that.”