Tag: Joshua Palmer fantasy football

Fantasy football preview: LA Chargers wide receivers

Will the Bolts offer electric wideouts for fantasy football?

Dating all the way back to their last four years in San Diego, the Los Angeles Chargers have had wide receiver Keenan Allen around to anchor their passing game. For the past seven years, Allen has been paired with WR Mike Williams. Both are gone. Allen was traded to the Chicago Bears in March, and Williams signed with the New York Jets in free agency. In addition, tight end Gerald Everett (Bears) and running back Austin Ekeler (Washington Commanders), who combined for 102 receptions last year, have departed as well.

While it’s not quite a complete overhaul for quarterback Justin Herbert, it’s close, and that doesn’t even consider the hiring of head coach Jim Harbaugh and offensive coordinator Mark Roman, a duo that’s known for their physical brand of football. So, is it all doom and gloom for LA’s passing attack in 2024, or will some new Chargers step to the forefront?

Evaluating Justin Herbert’s fantasy football outlook

Will Herbert rebound with a new coaching staff and weaker receiving corps?

Based purely on talent, Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert is near the top of the heap, boasting plus athleticism, a great arm, and the confidence to attempt just about any throw. His numbers haven’t been as impressive. After passing for 5,014 yards and 38 touchdowns in his sophomore season, the former Oregon Duck saw his output dip to 4,739 yards and 25 TDs in 2022, and then 3,134 yards with just 20 TDs last year. A

finger injury cost Herbert the final four games, but even projecting his numbers comes out to a relatively disappointing 4,098 yards and 26 TDs.

The only constant throughout Herbert’s four seasons has been change, playing under a trio of offensive coordinators (Shane Steichen, Joe Lombardi, and Kellen Moore). That continues in 2024 as new head coach Jim Harbaugh has brought Greg Roman along as OC. On the personnel side, the standout receiver tandem of Keenan Allen (Chicago Bears) and Mike Williams (New York Jets) are both gone, as is tight end Gerald Everett (Bears).

On the field, Allen, who caught 380 passes over the last four seasons, is the biggest loss. It’s the change off it that could make an even bigger difference, however, as the tandem of Harbaugh and Roman have made no secret about their desire to control the line of scrimmage and run the football. It’s a philosophy that was driven home by the selection of offensive tackle Joe Alt with the fifth overall pick in this year’s draft. LA also overhauled the running back room, signing former Baltimore Ravens J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards as the top two backs.

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At receiver, the Bolts will try to replace Allen and Williams with returning talent Joshua Palmer (38-581-2 in 2023) and last year’s first-rounder Quentin Johnston (38-431-2), free-agent signee DJ Chark Jr. (35-525-5) with the Carolina Panthers), and second-round selection Ladd McConkey. There are some interesting names here, particularly if Johnston can develop into the player that thought they were getting with the 21st overall pick a year ago, but nobody comes with the track record of Williams, much less Allen.

Fantasy football outlook

A change in coaching, a change in offensive philosophy, and a change in personnel. Add it all up and it’s a lot to overcome for anyone, especially when you consider that Herbert has already seen his numbers trend in the wrong direction the past couple of years. That’s the glass half-empty perspective.

The optimistic viewpoint centers on Herbert’s skill set and a belief that you don’t pay a quarterback north of $50 million per season to have him throw 20 passes a game. He’s a tremendous talent, and he has shown a willingness throughout his career to target whoever is on the field in any situation, so don’t expect him to be gun shy with lesser known wideouts. Whether they can deliver is yet to be known.

While he’s best viewed as a QB2, Herbert carries viable upside. He may prove to be frustrating to play in fantasy, however.

Does the LA Chargers offense have room for Quentin Johnston?

LA’s offense is rich with talent, but there’s only one football. Will Johnston matter as a rookie?

With a positional depth chart that includes a five-time Pro Bowl selection (Keenan Allen), a former top-10 pick with two 1,000-yard campaigns under his belt (Mike Williams), and a third-year pro coming off a 72-769-3 effort in 2022 (Joshua Palmer), wide receiver didn’t look like a pressing need for the Los Angeles Chargers entering the 2023 NFL Draft. General manager Tom Telesco disagreed.

Telesco decided to use his first-round pick, 22nd overall, on TCU wideout Quentin Johnston, who caught 60 passes for 1,069 yards and six touchdowns as a junior last year. While the pick initially might have raised some eyebrows, especially given LA’s glaring issues running the ball and stopping the run, a closer look shows a potentially strong fit.

Let’s start with the holdovers. Long considered one of the NFL’s best route runners, Allen turned 31 in April and is coming of an injury-plagued 2022 that saw him miss seven games. The veteran is also more chain mover than downfield threat, having not eclipsed 12.0 yards per catch since 2018.

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Williams is great on contested balls, but he has dealt with injuries as well, and despite his size he’s topped five TD grabs in a season only once in the past four years. While Palmer took a step in Year 2, he’s yet to prove he’s more than a possession option.

Despite all three being talented contributors, there’s one thing they’re all missing: speed. That lack of big-play ability is borne out in Justin Herbert‘s numbers as the strong-armed quarterback averaged a career-low 6.8 yards per attempt — only Tom Brady (733) attempted more passes than Herbert (699), who finished second to Patrick Mahomes (5,250) in passing yardage (4,739) despite heavily featuring short and intermediate routes.

Los Angeles hopes the selection of Johnston will go a long way toward fixing that issue. The rookie has an exciting mix of size (6-foot-3, 208 pounds), speed, and acceleration, and he’ll be given every chance to claim the starting job opposite Williams on the outside with Allen manning the slot. In that scenario, Palmer would slide into the No. 4 receiver role.

There’s also sure to be changes as Kellen Moore takes over as offensive coordinator from Joe Lombardi. During his four years as the Dallas Cowboys’ OC, Moore’s offenses ranked in the top six in scoring three times, and in terms of pushing the ball downfield, Dak Prescott averaged 8.2, 8.4, 7.5, and 7.3 yards per attempt, respectively, under Moore.

Fantasy football outlook

Things could go a few ways for Johnston in 2023. If he comes in, picks up Moore’s playbook, and earns a starting job, he could become Herbert’s de facto deep threat. In that role, Johnston could have real value given Herbert’s willingness (and ability) to air it out.

If the rookie struggles, LA could roll with Allen, Williams, and Palmer, pushing Johnston into reserve duty. Even if that ends up being the case, he’s one injury away from a featured role in a prominent passing design.

Consider Johnston a borderline top-50 fantasy receiver who would make an intriguing late-round target.