Tag: josh mcadniels

How did Raiders backup QB Jarrett Stidham rock the 49ers’ NFL-best defense?

How did Raiders quarterback Jarrett Stidham set the 49ers’ NFL-best defense on edge in ways nobody expected? Tape tells the story.

When the Las Vegas Raiders took on the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday, it was probably expected that 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy, the rookie Mr. Irrelevant who had led the NFL in passer rating (110.0) since he became the team’s starter in Week 13, would deal with the Raiders’ pass defense, which ranked dead last in DVOA. And that happened. In San Francisco’s 37-34 overtime win, Purdy completed 22 of 35 passes for 284 yards, two touchdowns, one interception, and a passer rating of 95.4. As has been the case throughout his improbable recent journey, Purdy did all he could to win.

What we did NOT expect in this game was for new Raiders starter Jarrett Stidham, the 2019 fourth-round pick of the New England Patriots, thrust into his first NFL start against the NFL’s best defense, to do as much. Stidham had completed 24 of 48 passes for 270 yards, two touchdowns, four interceptions, and a passer rating of 46.4 in two seasons with the Patriots.

Former New England offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels clearly saw something in Stidham, because soon after McDaniels became the Raiders’ head coach, Las Vegas traded a 2023 sixth-round pick to the Patriots for Stidham and a 2023 seventh-round pick. The only action Stidham had seen in the 2022 regular season before Sunday’s game was in Week 8 mop-up duty against the New Orleans Saints in a 24-0 loss. But with McDaniels’ decision to bench Derek Carr — a move that likely presages the end of Carr’s time with the franchise — it was now up to Stidham, who completed eight of 13 passes for 72 yards against the Saints, to create necessary explosive plays against a defense that had been a nightmare for opposing quarterbacks all season long.

This can’t be overstated. McDaniels was throwing Stidham into the teeth of a defense that was ranked first in Defensive DVOA, first in Weighted Defensive DVOA, and fifth in Pass Defense DVOA, The 49ers had allowed just 16 passing touchdowns to 15 interceptions. In today’s NFL, if your defense is about even in those two numbers, your defense is amazing. And the 49ers’ defense has been that way all season long.

So, how did Stidham rock that defense with 23 completions on 34 attempts for 365 yards, three touchdowns, two interceptions, and a passer rating of 108.1, against a defense that had allowed a season-long passer rating of 82.3, third-best in the league behind the Denver Broncos and the New York Jets?

And to get granular about it, how is it that Stidham was responsible for eight explosive passing plays in this game, when he was 0-for-2 against the Saints in throws of 20 or more air yards? Against such throws this season, the 49ers had allowed 16 completions on 38 attempts for 550 yards, three touchdowns, two interceptions, and an opponent passer rating of 93.6 (about middle of the pack). This wasn’t the Raiders taking advantage of a heretofore unknown weakness in DeMeco Ryans’ defense — this was the Raiders dictating to that defense in ways no other team has this season.

Interesting questions, so let’s dive under the hood and see how it came to be.

Derek Carr’s benching likely means the end of his nine-year run with Raiders

Derek Carr has been benched to conclude his ninth season with the Raiders. It means that it’s most likely his last.

On Sunday, the 6-9 Las Vegas Raiders will face the 11-4 San Francisco 49ers at Las Vegas’ Allegiant Stadium. The Raiders will do so with quarterback Jarrett Stidham, as head coach Josh McDaniels announced Wednesday that he is benching Derek Carr for the final two games of the season.

It is certainly a challenge for Stidham, the 2019 fourth-round pick of the New England Patriots, back when McDaniels was the Patriots’ offensive coordinator. The 49ers have the NFL’s best defense, and Stidham has completed 32 of 61 passes in his NFL career for 342 yards, two touchdowns, four interceptions, and a passer rating of 52.8. The Raiders are currently the AFC”s 12-seed in the playoff race, and while they haven’t been technically eliminated from the postseason, that’s all but done.

That said, it’s an interesting time to make the move.

Carr, who signed a three-year, $120.5 million extension this season, has a $32.9 million guaranteed salary in 2023 which counts against the Raiders’ cap if he’s on the roster on the third day of the league year. His full $34,875 million 2023 cap charge is offset by a mere $5.625 dead cap charge if he’s outright released. That might be more likely than the Raiders finding a trade partner, unless there’s another NFL team in love with Carr’s potential to take on the salary structure through at least next season.

This season, Carr has completed 305 of 502 passes for 3522 yards, 24 touchdowns, a league-high 14 interceptions, and a passer rating of 86.3. Both the passer rating and completion rate (60.8%) are the lowest Carr has posted since his rookie season of 2014.

There had been recent rumors that this might happen, and that was the case even before the Raiders’ 13-10 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers last Saturday. But that game, in which Carr completed just 16 of 30 passes for 174 yards, one touchdown, three interceptions, and a passer rating of 42.2, was likely the last straw for Carr’s head coach and offensive shot-caller. It was an eight-degree kickoff with a wind chill of minus-10 degrees at Pittsburgh’s Acrisure Stadium, but Carr still needed to get something done. Which he did not.

“It’s tough to overcome,” McDaniels said postgame. “If you lose the turnover battle in this league, most of the time you lose the game. So, our ability to take care of the football, I mean, was the strength earlier in the year. Obviously, haven’t done a very good job of that in the last month or so. We’ve gotten away with it a little bit. But tonight, just cost us too many other opportunities. We didn’t have possession of the ball much because we turned it over. We had some negative plays and penalties in the second half and that kind of hurt our ability to, I’d say, continue to stick runs in there and try to eventually get something going. I think we had the big one and got called back with the penalty. But, yeah, when you turn the ball over and give the other team more opportunities than you have, a good field position, it’s just impossible to overcome.”

There are games in which quarterbacks aren’t necessarily to blame for their interceptions — receivers run the wrong routes and drop balls, and sometimes, the defense just gets the better of you. But Carr’s game against the Steelers was… not great.

“I mean, everyone had to play in them,” Carr said of the weather conditions. “No matter what, you’ve got to do your job as best you can and for me, I’m just trying my best to hit my guys and find the open receiver. There were a few that I threw away that were over guys that I threw away because of certain reasons and things like that. But I felt good.”

If Carr felt good, it did not show up on tape.

Carr’s first interception, which came with 11:48 left in the third quarter, was an errant throw over the middle to tight end Fabian Moreau, and cornerback Arthur Maulet was happy to take advantage.

The second interception, which came two drives later with 4:44 left in the third quarter? Similar bad throw over the middle, but this time, receiver Hunter Renfrow was the target, this time, Carr threw behind instead of ahead, and this time, defensive back Minkah Fitzpatrick was the lucky recipient.

The third pick came with 36 seconds left in the game, and the Raiders at their own 29-yard line, trying to at least get into field goal range. Renfrow was open deep over the middle on a switch release with Davante Adams, but Carr threw his target closed, and cornerback Cameron Sutton completed the trifecta.

Carr’s bad game against the Steelers was representative of a larger, more worrisome trend. In Weeks 1-11, Carr completed 217 of 348 passes (62.4%) for 2,435 yards (7.0 yards per attempt), 15 touchdowns, five interceptions, and a passer rating of 91.6. Since Week 12, Carr has completed 88 of 154 passes (57.15) for 1,087 yards (7,1 YPA), nine touchdowns, nine interceptions, and a passer rating of 74.2.

This is not what anybody expected. Not when the Raiders named McDaniels their head coach on January 31 in the wake of the Jon Gruden scandals. Not when Carr got that contract extension. Certainly not when the Raiders traded for Adams, Carr’s old Fresno State teammate. And certainly not when people imagined Carr throwing to Adams, Renfrow, tight end Darren Waller, and the rest of Las Vegas’ dynamic targets. Were it not for the Herculean efforts of running back Josh Jacobs, the Raiders probably would have been eliminated from playoff contention a long time ago.

Given McDaniels’ history of willful decisions during his disastrous time as the Denver Broncos’ head coach in 2009 and 2010, it’s easy to assume that this is McDaniels overreacting to one game. More likely, this is part of a larger and longer process regarding Carr’s future with the organization, and McDaniels’ desire for a more ideal quarterback to suit his offensive concepts.

Sadly for Carr, he hasn’t done much of late to mount a counter-argument.

Carr isn’t broken like Russell Wilson or anything, but this season has been an overall regression, and wherever he goes from here, he’ll have to get things right.