(In this series, Touchdown Wire’s Mark Schofield takes a look at one important metric per NFL team to uncover a crucial problem to solve for the 2020 season. In this installment, it’s time to look at how Bills quarterback Josh Allen can improve upon the things that still bedevil him as a developing player).
Think back to when Josh Allen was a draft prospect.
Allen was a polarizing quarterback coming out of the University of Wyoming, forcing evaluators into one of two different camps. Some looked at his athletic ability and skill-set and believed he could transition to an NFL quarterback in short order. Others saw what he did on film and struggled to find a player who could survive – let alone thrive – in the NFL.
RELATED: Why Tom Brady’s numbers under pressure are huge for the Buccaneers
Regardless of the camp you were in, there was one opinion you had on Allen: He has an absolute cannon. His arm strength was one of his best traits on film and it translated early in his NFL career. Even when he was slow with reads or decisions as a rookie, his rocket right arm could bail him out:
Allen's arm is that double-edged sword. Speed out at the bottom has the leverage advantage, but he hesitates on it. Trusts his arm and it is still an impressive throw, but by waiting he lets the DB close and WR gets to sideline. Tougher to complete. Trust your eyes, let it fly. pic.twitter.com/SIHfcaH7uC
— Mark Schofield (@MarkSchofield) October 2, 2018
Given his arm strength, many believed his best fit in the NFL was in a vertical-based, downfield system. It made sense, thanks to the velocity he can generate on throws to all levels of the field, plus the fact that as his mind acclimates to the faster pace of play, these route designs will give him a second or so more to decipher what the defense is showing him, and make the right decisions with the football.
But a strange thing happened a season ago: Offensive coordinator Brian Daboll turned Allen into more of a timing- and rhythm-based passer, rather than a Mad Bomber in the shadow of Daryle Lamonica. Rather than pushing the ball downfield, Allen was much more successful working underneath showing the timing, rhythm and anticipation that was lacking from him as a prospect:
On this play Allen delivers a curl route to the right sideline from the left hashmark, with ideal timing and anticipation. This is a long throw, but Allen’s anticipation – coupled with his arm strength – makes it impossible to defend.
Then there was this throw against the Cincinnati Bengals, where Allen has to navigate a Cover 3 Buzz look to throw this slant/pivot combination in the middle of the field:
Allen sees the middle linebacker squat just enough on the pivot route, enabling him to pull the trigger on the slant route over the top of it just before the Buzz defender can make a play on the football.
But while Daboll was turning Allen into more of a Tom Brady than the Lamonica we all expected to see, something else was happening.
Allen was struggling in the downfield part of the game. On throws downfield (defined as passes traveling 20 yards or more in the air) Allen posted was 18 of 68 for a completion percentage of 14.8%. His NFL Passer Rating of 64.4 on those throws was 64.4, placing him 20th in the league among qualified passers (those with 50% of their team’s dropbacks) and above passers like Mitchell Trubisky, Philip Rivers, Jared Goff and Kyle Allen, and below players like Jameis Winston, Sam Darnold, Daniel Jones and Andy Dalton. Worse still was his Adjusted Completion Percentage on these throws, which was just 30.9%. That placed him 23rd in the league, above only Kyle Allen.
The poor execution in the downfield passing game showed up on film, on plays like this:
Josh Allen has Josh Brown working against Ronald Darby on the post but throws him into coverage instead of throwing to space.
The fumble at the end of the half & this throw (w/the score 24-13, late 3rd) changed the entire complexion of the game (graphics via @KlipDraw) – pic.twitter.com/uSDSgNDmO7
— Michael Kist (@MichaelKistNFL) October 30, 2019
Here, Allen has John Brown open but the hesitation he displays allows the cornerback to recover, and what should have been a big gain on a downfield throw – and potentially a touchdown – falls incomplete.
Now consider what the Bills did this offseason, particularly at the wide receiver position. They traded for Stefon Diggs, perhaps one of the top downfield receivers in the game. Last year, Diggs was targeted on 29 throws downfield (again, defined as 20 yards or more) which tied him for third-most in the league. What did he do on those 29 targets? 16 receptions (the most in the league) for a league-high 635 yards and six touchdowns, which was also a league-high.
With such a downfield weapon at his disposal, the onus is on Allen to improve those vertical passing numbers. His success – or failure – in doing so will go a long way in telling the story of the 2020 Bills’ offense.