The Falcons’ addition of LB Matthew Judon and S Justin Simmons might threaten the Bucs’ chances to win the NFC South.
This offseason, the Atlanta Falcons moved heaven and earth to improve their standing in the NFC South. They replaced head coach Arthur Smith with Raheem Morris, paid quarterback Kirk Cousins $100 million and drafted Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr. with a top-10 selection.
Still, these moves were not enough for the Falcons, who have made two major moves on defense that could have the Tampa Bay Buccaneers concerned about defending their NFC South championship.
First, Atlanta acquired outside linebacker Matthew Judon from the New England Patriots in exchange for a third-round pick (via NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport):
Then, they signed free agent safety Justin Simmons, who was released by the Denver Broncos earlier this year (via Rapoport):
Judon and Simmons bring impressive pedigrees. Over the last five seasons, Judon has recorded 47.5 sacks, 116 QB hits and 56 tackles for a loss. Simmons is a four-time second-team All-Pro and led the NFL in interceptions (6) in 2022, recording 30 over his NFL career.
Make no mistake, these additions make the Falcons defense far more formidable than it was a week ago. Judon gives Atlanta a legitimate pass rush force off the edge, and the Falcons’ safety group now truly rivals Tampa Bay’s combination of Antoine Winfield Jr. and Jordan Whitehead.
With Cousins at the helm of an offense boasting a stout offensive line and potential playmakers at virtually every starting position, the Falcons have taken two more steps into justifying the many predictions putting Atlanta atop the NFC South in 2024.
No doubt, the Bucs must be concerned about the addition of Judon and Simmons. They are proven, consistent playmakers who could tip the scales in the division in Atlanta’s favor.
Hope is not all lost, however. For as impressive as their resumes are, Judon and Simmons were available for a reason. Judon is a 32-years old pass rusher coming off a season shortened by a torn bicep injury. Simmons is also on the wrong side of 30 for a defensive back and was on the free agent market for five months, which raises questions about his readiness given his resume.
These are also very much short-term gambles that mortgage the Falcons’ long-term resources. Both are currently playing on one-year deals, each worth around $7 million. Coming into today, the Falcons had the third-least available cap space in the league at about $7 million per Over the Cap. In order to make these moves possible, the Falcons had to take a page out of the New Orleans Saints playbook and borrow against future money (via Spotrac):
There is also a reason why Judon was on the trade block. The former Patriot was pushing for a contract extension prior to his trade, and it is unlikely he has given up his pursuit. Another restructure could be in the works to accommodate a 32-year old pass rusher.
Atlanta was already cap-strapped in 2025, boasting just $8.2 million in cap space next year per Over the Cap. Next year they have key players who will be looking for extensions, like cornerback A.J. Terrell. More money for Judon means more borrowing to keep core players like Terrell.
Overall, the Falcons are betting heavily on older players. Cousins, left tackle Jake Matthews and defensive tackle Grady Jarrett are all over 30 and each play major roles on the team. Age brings experience but also attrition, as Cousins’ Achilles and Judon’s bicep can attest.
There is no escaping the fact that the Falcons are better at the end of this week than the start of it, at least on paper. One-year veteran bets are hallmarks of aspiring contenders, but they are still bets. Judon and Simmons still have to pay off with play on the field.
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