Staff predictions for Tuesday’s matchup between Duke basketball and the Kansas Jayhawks

Duke basketball is gearing up to take on No. 1 Kansas on Tuesday, check out our Duke Wire staff predictions for the game.

Duke basketball coach [autotag]Jon Scheyer[/autotag] spent all offseason telling Blue Devils fans that he wanted to test his young team early and often with the non-conference schedule, and the Cameron Crazies have ridden that roller coaster already through five games.

In the team’s third game of the season, superstar freshman [autotag]Cooper Flagg[/autotag] turned the ball over twice on the final two possessions as the Kentucky Wildcats stormed from behind for a 77-72 upset in Atlanta. Two games later, Flagg scored 24 points as the Duke defense smothered the Arizona Wildcats for a 69-55 road win.

Within two weeks, fans experienced the full spectrum of emotion and expectations. That dial will get turned to 11 on Tuesday night with a neutral-site game against No. 1 Kansas.

The Jayhawks already beat the North Carolina Tar Heels, and they remain 5-0 to keep a hold on the top spot in every rankings. However, popular analytics websites like KenPom think the Blue Devils might actually be the better team.

Check out our Duke Wire staff predictions ahead of Tuesday’s big game.

Ryan Haley, Duke Wire site editor

The Jayhawks don’t have many weaknesses on paper, but when the results get examined, the holes that make KenPom question their top-dog status start to appear.

Kansas has played one top-25 opponent (at home) in its first five games and has outscored its foes by an average of 16.0 points per game. The Blue Devils, with two ranked opponents away from home, have an average margin of 27.2 points per game. While the Jayhawks sit within the top 50 in most of the site’s offensive metrics, the only thing Kansas seems to be genuinely amazing at is not turning the ball over.

I think the real difference in this game showed up in Tucson on Friday. Arizona entered that game with one of the best rebounding margins in the nation, but the Blue Devils grabbed 43 boards to the Wildcats’ 30 thanks to 21 combined rebounds from Kon Knueppel, Sion James, Tyrese Proctor, and Caleb Foster in the backcourt. If freshman 7-footer Khaman Maluach can stay on the court for most of the second half, Duke’s size across the board translates to extra possessions, and that’s the best way to win tight games.

Duke 79, Kansas 75

Bryant Crews, Staff Writer

Duke continues its non-conference gauntlet on Tuesday in Sin City against the nation’s No. 1 team, the Kansas Jayhawks. Duke fumbled away a golden opportunity against Kentucky but responded with a gritty defensive effort on the road against a top-25 Arizona team.

The Blue Devils didn’t head east, opting to practice and recover in Arizona before making the trip to Las Vegas. That’s important because Duke should be rested and ready for another late tip.

Kansas’s three senior starters—KJ Adams, Dajuan Harris Jr., and Hunter Dickinson—lead the team. The trio combine to average 35.6 of the team’s 83.6 points per game. Harris is a real menace in the defensive backcourt, while Adams offers physicality and versatility in the frontcourt. Dickinson is the offensive hub and primary option.

I think Duke matches up pretty well with Kansas, even with the Jayhawks’ transfer portal additions of Zeke Mayo, Rylan Griffen, and AJ Storr. Dickinson will hold down the paint defensively, so this game will be won on the wings and in the backcourt. Duke will need Caleb Foster to show up in a big way. It’ll also need a better shooting performance as a team.

Duke is no stranger to these games now, and I like the Blue Devils to come out ready to rock against an experienced Kansas team. I think we should have a track meet where both teams push into the 80-point range.

Flagg flirts with a triple-double, Foster has his best game of the season, and Mason Gillis hits multiple threes off the bench. Duke wins a thriller and puts the college basketball world on notice.

Duke 86, Kansas 82

Josiah Caswell, Staff Writer

Duke is one of the best teams in the country, but the Blue Devils also face one of the toughest schedules in the country. After already facing Arizona and Kentucky, splitting those games 1-1, the Blue Devils now have to deal with the No. 1 team in the country.

The Jayhawks have no true weakness. They have young talent and experienced talent, they can shoot, and they can play tough in the paint. In terms of the paint, they’re led by super-senior Hunter Dickinson. A 7-foot-2 center, Dickinson can put up points and crash the boards well.

Duke’s guards will also have a tough matchup with Dajuan Harris Jr. and Zeke Mayo. You also most definitely can’t forget power forward KJ Adams Jr. Simply, Kansas is stacked.

If Duke is to win, Cooper Flagg will need to play his best basketball and, most importantly, protect the ball and limit turnovers. Maluach will also need to handle Dickinson, and Knueppel will need to shoot a high percentage from 3-point range.

Ultimately, I think the inexperience of Flagg and a lot of the Blue Devils’ roster will haunt them against a very experienced Jayhawks team. This would be a very different statement if the game was played in February, but it is not.

Kansas 92, Duke 85

Duke basketball just misses the top five in Andy Katz’s power rankings

With a battle against top-ranked Kansas on the horizon, Andy Katz left the Blue Devils just outside the top five of his power rankings.

College basketball analyst Andy Katz released his updated national power rankings on Monday, and the Blue Devils sit on the doorstep of the top five after their road victory over Arizona.

Katz put Duke sixth behind the Kansas Jayhawks, Gonzaga Bulldogs, Connecticut Huskies, Auburn Tigers, and Kentucky Wildcats after the third week of the regular season.

The Blue Devils coughed up a halftime lead to the Wildcats in Atlanta in their third game, but freshman phenom [autotag]Cooper Flagg[/autotag] and his teammates found redemption in Tucson with a 69-55 victory over the Wildcats. Arizona entered the game with the best rebounding margin in the country, but Duke won the battle of the boards 43-30 and Flagg tacked on 16 of his 24 points after halftime.

The 17-year-old earned ACC Player of the Week honors for his efforts, his first time winning the award, and took home his second straight ACC Rookie of the Week title.

The Blue Devils face No. 1 Kansas in Las Vegas on Tuesday night, but analytics sites like KenPom think Duke might actually be the better team despite the standings.

Duke basketball firmly favored against No. 1 Kansas, according to KenPom

The Blue Devils face the No. 1 team in the country on Tuesday night, but KenPom smells an upset brewing in Las Vegas.

The Duke Blue Devils will face their third top-25 opponent of the season on Tuesday night, and their trip to Las Vegas will be their most challenging yet.

Duke will play No. 1 Kansas, still undefeated through five games, as part of the 2024 Vegas Showdown. However, despite the Jayhawks’ ranking and record, one popular college basketball analytics site thinks the wrong team will start the week as the favorite.

KenPom gives Duke a 64% chance to upset Kansas in Vegas, a triumph that would give the Blue Devils two ranked wins in five days. They beat the Arizona Wildcats, 69-55, in Tucson on Friday night after superstar freshman [autotag]Cooper Flagg[/autotag] scored 24 points.

Despite Duke’s early loss to the Kentucky Wildcats last week, KenPom still considers the Blue Devils the fourth-best team in the nation. Even with a home victory over the North Carolina Tar Heels on their resume, the Jayhawks are just eighth in the site’s rankings.

The more fans look at the numbers, it becomes clear why the Blue Devils are favored when rankings get stripped away. Duke has scored 84.6 points per game and allowed just 57.4 while Kansas scored 83.6 and allowed 67.6. That disparity comes despite head coach [autotag]Jon Scheyer[/autotag] and his team playing two ranked teams already, one at a neutral site and the other in a true road game. The Jayhawks’ home game against UNC is their only top-25 matchup thus far.

How many points did Cooper Flagg score against Arizona?

Here’s how Duke freshman phenom Cooper Flagg performed against the Arizona Wildcats on Friday.

[autotag]Cooper Flagg[/autotag] and the Duke Blue Devils won their last game before Friday’s battle with the Arizona Wildcats, but it still felt like they needed a bounce-back win.

Despite Flagg’s 26 points against the Kentucky Wildcats last Tuesday, the Blue Devils lost for the first time in 2024-25 after being outscored 24-11 over the final 10 minutes. A Saturday win over Wofford (that actually set a school record for the fewest points allowed in the shot clock era) likely numbed the pain a little, but until Duke beat a proper ranked opponent, the questions about that game in Atlanta would linger.

Luckily, head coach [autotag]Jon Scheyer[/autotag] made sure the school scheduled plenty of top teams in the non-conference slate. Three of the team’s following four games sit within the top 25 of the USA TODAY Sports men’s basketball coaches poll, including Friday’s road game against the Arizona Wildcats.

Did Flagg and his teammates find a way to bounce back? Here’s a quick recap.

Cooper Flagg points scored vs. Arizona:

Flagg finished with 24 points against the Wildcats, 16 of which came after halftime. He made 10 of his 22 shots for the game, including two of his five 3-point looks, and pulled down six rebounds. He added three assists, two blocks, and a steal to his final line.

Did Duke win?

The Blue Devils added their first top-25 win of the season to their resume with a 69-55 victory over Arizona. Caleb Love, a former North Carolina Tar Heels star who won five of his previous eight matchups with Duke, only managed eight points after missing eight of his nine 3-point tries.

Cooper Flagg’s next game:

The Duke Blue Devils will return to the court on Tuesday night against the No. 1 Kansas Jayhawks, a neutral-site game in Las Vegas.

Cameron Boozer, 2025 Duke basketball commits officially sign with the Blue Devils

Duke officially inked its third number-one recruiting class of the Scheyer era with four signees, including star forward Cameron Boozer.

The Duke basketball program has relocated to Arizona for Friday’s massive matchup with the Wildcats. While all the focus centers on how the Blue Devils will conquer their first top-25 opponent of this young season, head coach [autotag]Jon Scheyer[/autotag] and the rest of this program’s staff will silently be able to let out a sigh of relief.

The early signing period has come, meaning commits from the class of 2025 are now eligible to sign their national letter of intent and officially pledge themselves to their schools for next year.

Duke inked four top prospects on Thursday, and the Blue Devils’ social media posted graphics and videos highlighting the signings of the Boozer twins, Shelton Henderson and Nikolas Khamenia.

Duke didn’t have a single commitment at the start of last month, but Cameron and Cayden Boozer, sons of Duke legend Carlos Boozer, got things rolling by hopping in the boat on October 11. In many ways, they were the biggest domino for Duke’s 2025 recruiting cycle as the Blue Devils would see their other two commitments come on board shortly after that in the following weeks.

Cameron, the nation’s second-ranked player in the 247Sports rankings, is often labeled the most complete high school player regardless of class. He will fit right into the shoes of Cooper Flagg, Zion Williamson, Paolo Banchero, and Jayson Tatum as an “alpha” freshman for Duke to essentially play around next year.

Cayden Boozer is a talented guard in his own right, but he’s less heralded than his twin brother. Cayden is a point guard, a position Duke will have its eye on all offseason, especially if Duke loses the services of Caleb Foster and Tyrese Proctor at the end of this season. Many believe Cayden could be a multi-year point guard like Tre Jones.

Shelton Henderson, another five-star player, is a high-ceiling wing who best projects as a two-way star. He can slash his way to the hoop and create for himself and others. Henderson is an excellent positional rebounder, and his defense is incredible. He’s also physically mature, and he uses his size well. The best way to describe Henderson is a higher-ceiling version of Sion James in every way.

Lastly, four-star combo forward Nikolas Khamenia officially joins the Blue Devils. He committed less than two weeks after the Boozers did, making him the third member of the class. Khamenia excels playing inside out and has an incredibly high basketball IQ, which allows him to be an elite distributor and playmaker from the wing. He is a perfect connective player because he also shoots the ball well. He can slot in several ways for Jon Scheyer next year, making creating lineups and matchups much easier.

Duke’s class is set to be the top class in the nation for the third time in the Scheyer era. The Blue Devils also paced the 2022 and 2024 recruiting rankings.

Duke isn’t finished, either. There is a real chance that Duke will add one more player to this class in the form of Nate Ament, 247Sports’ No. 4 overall prospect. Ament is another high-ceiling player who stands 6-foot-9 and can handle the ball and shoot at a tremendously high level. His best days of basketball are well in front of him.

Ament will decide after the season and will likely let the process play out until the high school all-star game circuit before committing.

Staff predictions for Friday’s matchup between Duke basketball and Arizona

Duke basketball is gearing up to take on Arizona this Friday. Check out our Duke Wire staff predictions for the game.

Duke basketball fans probably felt (understandably) disheartened after Tuesday’s loss to the Kentucky Wildcats.

With phenom [autotag]Cooper Flagg[/autotag] and three other five-star freshmen arriving on campus, the Cameron Crazies had visions of a dominant season that ended with a banner. However, first-year Kentucky coach Mark Pope and his team outscored the Blue Devils 24-11 over the closing stretch for a 77-72 win in the team’s first ranked test on the schedule.

However, the hard truth is that national analysts and fans won’t remember that game by March. The team might not even remember it by the end of the regular season. There’s no faster way to shorten everyone’s memories than with another top-25 win, and the Blue Devils get two chances at one of those in the next week.

First up, a road trip to Tucson for a revenge battle against No. 17 Arizona. The Wildcats, now anchored by former North Carolina Tar Heels star Caleb Love, left Durham with a win last November, and head coach [autotag]Jon Scheyer[/autotag] now hopes to return the favor. Here are our staff predictions for Friday’s showdown.

Ryan Haley, Duke Wire site editor

The most important aspect of this game has been pretty overlooked so far this week: this isn’t the same Arizona team that beat Duke at Cameron Indoor Stadium. Oumar Ballo and Kylan Boswell both transferred, and Keshad Johnson and Pelle Larsson now play professionally. Even with former Tennessee Volunteer Tobe Awaka and some returners stepping forward, that production and leadership will take time to rebuild.

The Blue Devils won’t just get this game handed to them, however. Someone other than Flagg needs to step up down the stretch. The 17-year-old scored 12 of Duke’s last 14 points against Kentucky, and an offensive plan that entirely revolves around him playing hero ball won’t work against the best teams ahead.

With that said, however, I firmly believe Duke’s pathetic 4/24 3-point showing against the Wildcats was a blue-moon event. If the Blue Devils put together even a slightly-below-average game, they’d be undefeated, and that gets rectified in Tucson.

Duke 79, Arizona 61

Bryant Crews, Staff Writer

Scheyer and the Duke Blue Devils hit the road for their first true road game of the 2024-25 season, and as every college basketball watcher knows, those games are always challenging. Pit two top-25 teams against each other and toss in that revenge is on the mind for one with Love, a legendary Duke villain, potentially lacing up his kicks for the last time against a school he has terrorized, and you have a marquee matchup.

These are two gifted teams with talent on both sides. Scheyer scheduled games like these to test and push his squad so that come March and April; the Blue Devils could be ready for a run for the national title. Even though this isn’t a neutral site game, it already has a second weekend of the NCAA Tournament-type feel in November.

Duke is the better team, in my opinion, and still has a substantial amount of room to go. If this were a neutral site, people would be less inclined to think Arizona wins, but Duke’s depth and high-end talent tip the scales even without home-court advantage.

Caleb Foster has to show up, and if Kon Knueppel hits even 25% more shots than he did against Kentucky, Duke should do this by multiple possessions. I don’t see Arizona containing Duke from deep for another 4/24 performance like Atlanta. While Arizona will try to bully the youngster Khaman Maluach inside with older post players, Maluach holds his ground and has three blocks while pulling down at least eight boards.

Sion James and Mason Gillis combined for four made threes off the bench as the Blue Devils roll.

Duke 78, Arizona 71

Josiah Caswell, Staff Writer

Duke’s 2024-25 season has started off strong, but not without blemishes. Despite three blowout victories over weaker competition, the Blue Devils fell short in their matchup with Kentucky.

The Wildcats’ high-percentage performance played a big reason in that loss. Additionally, Flagg struggled in the final seconds despite an overall good game.

Now, Duke goes on the road for the first time against the Wildcats and Love just one year after they took down the Blue Devils in Durham.

Arizona is in a similar spot to Duke, though. Following two massive blowout victories over lesser competition, Arizona fell 103-88 to the Wisconsin Badgers. Love, notably, went 2/13 from the field and 0/6 from behind the arc.

If Arizona is to bounce back and take down Duke, they’ll need to up their 3-point percentage and improve their defense. If the Wildcats let someone on Duke put up 40 points, they certainly won’t be winning.

Duke 86, Arizona 77

Duke basketball narrowly hangs within the top 10 of the USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll

The Duke Blue Devils (barely) stayed within the top 10 of the USA TODAY Sports Men’s College Basketball Coaches Poll.

Despite suffering their first loss of the season on Tuesday, the Duke Blue Devils grabbed the last spot within the top 10 of the USA TODAY Sports men’s basketball coaches poll on Monday.

Head coach [autotag]Jon Scheyer[/autotag] and his team obliterated Wofford at Cameron Indoor Stadium over the weekend, but the performance won’t be enough to erase lingering doubts created by the midweek defeat. The Kentucky Wildcats outscored Duke 24-11 over the final 10 minutes to steal a 77-72 win, and superstar freshman [autotag]Cooper Flagg[/autotag] turned the ball over twice on the last two possessions after scoring 26 points.

If Scheyer and the Blue Devils want a chance to erase that memory from all the voters, however, they’ll have chances over the next week. Duke’s next two opponents both sit within the top 20 with Arizona at No. 17 and the Kansas Jayhawks still in the top spot.

Check out the complete results of this week’s coaches poll below:

Rank Team Record Points
1 Kansas 4-0 665 (21)
2 UConn 3-0 632 (3)
3 Auburn 3-0 608 (2)
4 Gonzaga 3-0 599 (1)
5 Iowa State 2-0 516
6 Purdue 4-0 513
7 Houston 2-1 470
7 Alabama 3-1 470
9 Tennessee 4-0 462
10 Duke 3-1 421
11 Kentucky 3-0 381
12 North Carolina 2-1 377
13 Creighton 4-0 348
14 Marquette 4-0 319
15 Baylor 3-1 313
16 Cincinnati 3-0 229
17 Arizona 2-1 228
18 Indiana 3-0 208
19 Florida 4-0 168
20 Illinois 3-0 133
21 St. John’s 4-0 119
22 Texas Tech 3-0 95
23 Texas A&M 3-1 94
24 Arkansas 2-1 82
25 Wisconsin 4-0 75

Dropped Out

No. 22 Ohio State; No. 24 Rutgers

Receiving Votes

Rutgers 56; Xavier 43; Ole Miss 39; BYU 28; Saint Mary’s 18; Pittsburgh 18; Texas 14; Michigan State 9; Mississippi State 5; Oregon 4; Nevada 4; Ohio State 3; Dayton 3; Wake Forest 2; VCU 2; UCF 2

What Duke basketball coach Jon Scheyer had to say about Patrick Ngongba’s debut

Duke basketball freshman Patrick Ngongba made his debut on Saturday. Here’s what head coach Jon Scheyer thought of his performance.

Another member of the 2024 Duke basketball recruiting class introduced himself to the Cameron Crazies on Saturday, and head coach Jon Scheyer sounded happy with what he saw.

Patrick Ngongba, a 6-foot-11 center from St. Paul VI Catholic High School in Virginia, checked in for the first time this season during Saturday’s win over Wofford. In just 11 minutes on the court, he finished with two points, six rebounds (five of which came on the offensive glass), two assists, and a steal.

His best sequence of the game came in the final three minutes of the first half when he won two contested offensive rebounds, batting the ball back toward a teammate on the perimeter until fellow freshman Isaiah Evans eventually buried a 3-pointer.

“I’ve watched Pat play for some time now,” Scheyer said after the game. “His feel and instincts as a (6 foot 11 inch) guy with a (7 foot 3 inch) wingspan, or whatever it is, is rare. His ability is special.”

The four-star prospect sat out the first three games of the season with a foot injury, an issue that hindered him in high school as well. Scheyer took time to make sure those behind the scenes helping the young Blue Devil get ready heard their flowers.

“Our medical team has done an incredible job with him,” he said. “Incredible. And it would have been very easy to try to rush him and get him back out there as soon as possible, but our thing was, he’s been through a lot in high school, how can we get him out there pain-free?”

However, if the Cameron Crazies want more time with Ngongba on the court, they might need to wait until his sophomore campaign.

“It’s going to be limited minutes this year,” Scheyer said point-blank. “It just is. We’re cautious with his loads in practice and the science behind it all.”

Despite that, however, Ngongba’s brief time on the court spelled 7-footer Khaman Maluach. With superstar forward Cooper Flagg and Syracuse transfer Maliq Brown both alongside him, Scheyer had three different players at least 6 feet 9 inches tall on the court at one time. The addition of another center, especially one as productive as Ngongba looked on Saturday, can’t be overstated.

“He’s going to continue to grow,” Scheyer concluded. “I understand with him, there’s still going to be some rust. That’s his first game, there’s going to be some rust that he’s got to work through, but I love what he did.”

Every Duke basketball game is ‘a little bit of an experiment’ for head coach Jon Scheyer

Duke basketball coach Jon Scheyer let fans know that the Blue Devils, with plenty of new talent, will keep evolving throughout the season.

Nine different Duke basketball players scored in the first 20 minutes of Saturday’s blowout win over Wofford, a testament to the depth of head coach Jon Scheyer’s recruiting.

After losing 10 players from last year’s rotation to either the NBA, transfer portal, or expired eligibility, Scheyer replenished his roster with six freshmen and four transfer additions. However, with four top-25 opponents in the first eight games, that also means the third-year coach is meeting his 2024-25 team in real-time.

“It’s not like you’re afforded opportunities to experiment,” Scheyer said. “And really, every game is a little bit of an experiment because it’s my first time with all of these guys except Caleb (Foster) and Tyrese (Proctor).”

The slight unsteadiness, especially in his first-year talent, reared its head in the second half of Tuesday’s loss to the Kentucky Wildcats. Only different eight Blue Devils took the court across the entire game, including Tulane transfer Sion James, who left in the second half with a shoulder injury. Superstar forward [autotag]Cooper Flagg[/autotag], the only Duke player with a made shot over the final 10 mintues, scored 12 of the team’s last 14 points.

Two players who didn’t sub in against Kentucky, freshmen Isaiah Evans and Patrick Ngongba, made their case for prime minutes on Saturday. Evans scored 14 points in 12 minutes, making four of his seven 3-point tries, and Ngongba came away with five offensive rebounds and two assists in his collegiate debut.

“It’s hard to play eleven guys,” Scheyer said. “So finding out what that balance is, how deep can you go, who can be ready…Just because we start a certain way or play a certain way now doesn’t mean it’s going to end up that way. This is a long process.”

The next step of that process comes on Friday with a road game against Arizona.

Duke basketball drops two spots to fifth in KenPom rankings after Kentucky loss

After Tuesday night’s loss to the Kentucky Wildcats, the Duke Blue Devils dropped down two spots in the KenPom rankings.

The Duke Blue Devils suffered their first loss of the season on Tuesday night, dropping a 77-72 game to the Kentucky Wildcats after getting outscored 24-11 over the final 10 minutes.

As a result, head coach [autotag]Jon Scheyer[/autotag] and his team slipped down two spots to fifth in the KenPom adjusted efficiency rankings on Wednesday mornings.

The Blue Devils began the year second in the rankings (which contrast adjusted points scored versus adjusted points allowed per 100 possessions) thanks to freshman stars like [autotag]Cooper Flagg[/autotag]. The 17-year-old phenom turned the ball over twice in the final 15 seconds against the Wildcats, but he scored 12 of Duke’s last 14 points to keep them afloat to begin with.

“I trust his instincts,” Scheyer said after the game. “I probably could have put him in a better position, to be honest, but he’s got to touch it and trust that good things are going to happen.”

The Auburn Tigers jumped Duke over the weekend thanks to their win over Houston, and the Gonzaga Bulldogs and Connecticut Huskies shuffled above the Blue Devils on Wednesday. Arizona, Duke’s next ranked opponent, sits one spot below them in sixth.

Kentucky lept up 10 spots to 20th after the stunning upset.